Valur Reykjavik, the top contender in this match, is heavily favored to win at home, with a 63% probability. The model's confidence stems from the team's strong record against weaker opponents, such as Stjarnan, who tend to concede more goals on the road. Valur Reykjavik's home scoring average of 2.4 goals per game and conceding just 1.8 goals per game further solidify their position as the clear favorite.
The predicted match result is a home win, with a 63% probability, while the draw has a 18% chance and away win 19%. The expected total goals in this match is 4.2, with a most likely score of 2-1, occurring with a probability of 8.2%.
Valur Reykjavik's home scoring and conceding statistics against stronger opponents are impressive, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded. In contrast, Stjarnan's away form is less convincing, scoring just 1.14 goals and conceding 1.57 goals per game against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 92.8% probability, Over 2.5 with a 79% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 72.8% probability. Home win percentage is 63%, draw percentage is 18%, and away win percentage is 19%.
In a stunning upset, Stjarnan has taken down pre-match favourite Valur Reykjavik, extending their 2-game winning run. The final score was 2-3 in favour of the away team, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, giving it a 63% probability of success before the match. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 92.8% probability, and Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a 79% probability. The BTTS Yes selection, with a 72.8% probability, was successful.
Valur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.80 | 2.60 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 2.32 | 1.74 | 2.80 | 1.30 | 1.78 | 2.22 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.50 | 1.90 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Stjarnan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.90 | 2.44 | 1.75 | 1.57 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.00 | 2.22 | 2.27 | 2.18 | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.14 | 0.86 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Stjarnan goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
Valur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Stjarnan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.80 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.87 | 1.09 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Valur Reykjavik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.83 | 1.47 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.32 | 0.74 | 1.70 | 0.40 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Stjarnan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.31 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.04 | 1.35 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 0.92 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 0.29 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92.8% | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.05 | +5.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 79.0% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 72.8% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | -0.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 14/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/07/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/06/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 23/09/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/05/24 | H | 5-1 | |
| 19/04/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/09/23 | H | 2-0 |
Valur Reykjavik| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 26/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 29/01/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 4-4 |
Stjarnan| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 10/06/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/02/26 | H | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Fram Reykjavik | 9 | 18 | 56% | 2.0 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 4.3 | 89% | 78% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 7 | 15 | 57% | 2.1 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 5.3 | 100% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 3 | Keflavik | 9 | 13 | 44% | 1.4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 3.1 | 78% | 56% | 22% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | - |
| 4 | FH hafnarfjordur | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 2.0 | 62% | 25% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | - |
| 5 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 7 | 12 | 43% | 1.7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 3.9 | 100% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 8 | 12 | 38% | 1.5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 4.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | - |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 7 | 12 | 57% | 1.7 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 4.1 | 86% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 8 | Thor Akureyri | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 2.8 | 62% | 38% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Breidablik | 8 | 8 | 25% | 1.0 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 3.0 | 62% | 50% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | KA Akureyri | 8 | 7 | 12% | 0.9 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 4.1 | 75% | 75% | 62% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.4 | - |
| 11 | Valur Reykjavik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 4.3 | 100% | 71% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 8 | 2 | 0% | 0.2 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 3.1 | 62% | 62% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |