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Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2026
Time: 19:15
Final 2-3
Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Vs
63%
18%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Valur Reykjavik, the top contender in this match, is heavily favored to win at home, with a 63% probability. The model's confidence stems from the team's strong record against weaker opponents, such as Stjarnan, who tend to concede more goals on the road. Valur Reykjavik's home scoring average of 2.4 goals per game and conceding just 1.8 goals per game further solidify their position as the clear favorite.

The predicted match result is a home win, with a 63% probability, while the draw has a 18% chance and away win 19%. The expected total goals in this match is 4.2, with a most likely score of 2-1, occurring with a probability of 8.2%.

Valur Reykjavik's home scoring and conceding statistics against stronger opponents are impressive, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded. In contrast, Stjarnan's away form is less convincing, scoring just 1.14 goals and conceding 1.57 goals per game against weaker opponents.

The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 92.8% probability, Over 2.5 with a 79% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 72.8% probability. Home win percentage is 63%, draw percentage is 18%, and away win percentage is 19%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Stjarnan has taken down pre-match favourite Valur Reykjavik, extending their 2-game winning run. The final score was 2-3 in favour of the away team, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, giving it a 63% probability of success before the match. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 92.8% probability, and Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a 79% probability. The BTTS Yes selection, with a 72.8% probability, was successful.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.51
Edge
+27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.56
Draw✗ Miss
18.3%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.91
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.25
Betano
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Stjarnan win✓ Hit
18.6%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.23
Edge
-22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Dafabet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-544D02L20W40W12L15L24L02L23L22DH·FH 19/10A·VIK25/10H·GRO29/01H·AFT21/02A·IA 26/02A·THO10/03A·KR 06/04A·FH 12/07H·FRA18/07A·ZRI30/07
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.802.601.471.472.13
vs Stronger (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
vs Similar (19)2.321.742.801.301.782.22
vs Weaker (10)1.501.902.201.800.802.00
Clean sheet %13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-640W32W61W04L22D21W21W13L05L15LH·ÆGI17/02A·FRA21/02H·HK 28/02H·KR 14/03H·VES17/03H·SEL05/04H·KR 13/05A·AFT10/06A·KR 19/07A·IA 26/07
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.902.441.751.572.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)2.002.222.272.181.752.25
vs Weaker (7)2.140.862.800.800.501.00
Clean sheet %10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%2%05%114%219%319%416%525%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.8%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Under 1.5
7.2%
@ 7.15-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.24+5.1%
Under 2.5
21.0%
@ 3.51-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
10Bet
3.65
888Sport
3.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.64+4.1%
Under 3.5
39.5%
@ 2.12-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
SBO
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
SBO
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.8%
@ 1.25-0.5%
No
27.2%
@ 3.43+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
No
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.56
William Hil
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.2%@ 10.48+3.8%
3-1
7.5%@ 15.93+4.6%
1-1
6.6%@ 9.60+1.8%
2-2
6.1%@ 9.49+1.2%
2-0
5.5%@ 20.41+3.3%
3-2
5.5%@ 14.99+2.4%
4-1
5.1%@ 30.84+3.6%
3-0
5.0%@ 31.24+3.5%
Valur Reykjavik goals ↓
Stjarnan goals →
01234
02.1%1.6%1.6%0.8%0.3%
13.5%6.6%4.5%2.2%0.8%
25.5%8.2%6.1%3.0%1.1%
35.0%7.5%5.5%2.7%1.0%
43.4%5.1%3.8%1.9%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Stjarnan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Valur Reykjavik is 1.00 points worse than Stjarnan in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.71).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik is 0.14 goals better than Stjarnan in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W02L10W10W12L12L02L00D13L21WH·FH 19/10A·VIK25/10H·GRO29/01H·AFT21/02A·IA 26/02A·THO10/03A·KR 06/04A·FH 12/07H·FRA18/07A·ZRI30/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.971.131.000.800.93
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (19)1.001.001.100.900.891.11
vs Weaker (10)0.800.901.201.200.400.60
Clean sheet %37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D11D02L12L00D21W10W02L03LH·ÆGI17/02A·FRA21/02H·HK 28/02H·KR 14/03H·VES17/03H·SEL05/04H·KR 13/05A·AFT10/06A·KR 19/07A·IA 26/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.801.120.940.790.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.960.871.091.000.830.75
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.200.800.500.00
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D10W30W00D03L22D02L10W01LH·FH 19/10A·VIK25/10H·GRO29/01H·AFT21/02A·IA 26/02A·THO10/03A·KR 06/04A·FH 12/07H·FRA18/07A·ZRI30/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.831.470.470.671.20
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (19)1.320.741.700.400.891.11
vs Weaker (10)0.701.001.000.600.401.40
Clean sheet %43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stjarnan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

StjarnanStjarnan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W21W50W02L10W21W00D03L03L12LH·ÆGI17/02A·FRA21/02H·HK 28/02H·KR 14/03H·VES17/03H·SEL05/04H·KR 13/05A·AFT10/06A·KR 19/07A·IA 26/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.101.310.810.791.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.041.351.181.180.921.50
vs Weaker (7)1.140.291.600.000.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Valur Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stjarnan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.8%1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+5.6%✓ Hit
Over 2.579.0%1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.1%✓ Hit
BTTS Yes72.8%1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-0.5%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Valur Reykjavik and Stjarnan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
VR wins
1
Draws
3
STJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/25HVR Vs Stjarnan3-2
14/09/25HVR Vs Stjarnan1-2
01/07/25HVR Vs Stjarnan3-1
14/06/25AStjarnan Vs VR3-2
23/09/24HVR Vs Stjarnan2-2
30/05/24HVR Vs Stjarnan5-1
19/04/24AStjarnan Vs VR1-0
17/09/23HVR Vs Stjarnan2-0

Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/26AZrinjski Vs VR2-2
18/07/26HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik2-3
12/07/26AFH hafnarfjordur Vs VR2-0
06/04/26AKR Reykjavik Vs VR4-2
10/03/26AThor Akureyri Vs VR5-1
26/02/26AIA Akranes Vs VR2-1
21/02/26HVR Vs Afturelding4-0
29/01/26HVR Vs Grotta2-0
25/10/25AVikingur Reykjavik Vs VR2-0
19/10/25HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur4-4

StjarnanStjarnan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26AIA Akranes Vs STJ5-1
19/07/26AKR Reykjavik Vs STJ5-0
10/06/26AAfturelding Vs STJ3-1
13/05/26HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik2-1
05/04/26HSTJ Vs Selfoss2-1
17/03/26HSTJ Vs Vestri2-2
14/03/26HSTJ Vs KR Reykjavik0-4
28/02/26HSTJ Vs HK Kopavogur6-1
21/02/26AFram Reykjavik Vs STJ2-3
17/02/26HSTJ Vs Ægir4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.70
HomeWDWWL2.08
AwayLLLLD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals3.743.963.54
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %74%79%69%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored2.162.711.65
Conceded1.581.251.88
BTTS74%75%73%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Stjarnan
Stjarnan
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.58
HomeWLDWW1.93
AwayDWLLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%59%30%
AVG goals4.044.263.78
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %84%93%74%
Over 3.5 %60%70%48%
Scored2.102.371.78
Conceded1.941.892.00
BTTS82%85%78%
Clean Sheet10%11%9%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik918
56%
2.0
2316+7
4.3
89%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.61.8
-
2KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik715
57%
2.1
2512+13
5.3
100%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.61.7
-
3KeflavikKeflavik913
44%
1.4
1513+2
3.1
78%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.4
-
4FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur813
38%
1.6
97+2
2.0
62%
25%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.9
-
5Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik712
43%
1.7
1710+7
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.41.4
-
6IA AkranesIA Akranes812
38%
1.5
1915+4
4.2
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.9
-
7StjarnanStjarnan712
57%
1.7
1217-5
4.1
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.72.4
-
8Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri810
38%
1.2
715-8
2.8
62%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
9BreidablikBreidablik88
25%
1.0
1014-4
3.0
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.8
-
10KA AkureyriKA Akureyri87
12%
0.9
1419-5
4.1
75%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.82.4
-
11Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik75
14%
0.7
1317-4
4.3
100%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.92.4
-
12IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar82
0%
0.2
817-9
3.1
62%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.02.1
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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