The contest between Van II and Pyunik II is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37 % while the draw and away win probabilities sit at 28 % and 36 % respectively. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13.2 % chance, and the average goal tally for the match is 2.8, with a 25 % probability that exactly two goals will be scored. Van II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Pyunik II, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.7 % probability. Both sides have shown recent form that keeps the contest open: Van II are coming off a defeat, while Pyunik II have gone unbeaten in their last five. The predicted result remains a home win, but the narrow margins make the match a genuine test of resolve.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Van II failed to convert their home advantage, losing 0-1 to Pyunik II. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was predicted with a 37 % chance, but the model was wrong. The model’s single other selection, Over 1.5 goals, at 77.7 % probability, missed as the match produced only one goal. Van II’s recent form shows a win after a defeat, while Pyunik II remains unbeaten in five outings. The final score of 0-1 confirms the away side’s triumph and the model’s predictions fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Van II win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II win✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Van II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.97
1.29
1.50
1.00
2.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
3.67
0.33
2.33
1.33
5.00
vs Similar (17)
1.53
1.47
1.88
1.12
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.67
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
21% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.53
1.73
1.40
1.20
1.67
vs Stronger (14)
1.71
2.29
1.86
2.29
1.57
2.29
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.86
1.86
0.43
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Van II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
0-1 ✓
7.4%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
5.9%
Van II goals ↓
Pyunik II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.4%
5.9%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.5%
13%
8.3%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.4%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.8%
3.9%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Van II goals (down), columns = Pyunik II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Van II is 0.67 points worse than Pyunik II in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Van II is 0.33 goals worse than Pyunik II in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Van II is 0.50 goals worse than Pyunik II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Van II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.90
0.64
0.64
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.59
0.88
0.38
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.86
0.29
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Van II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Van II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Van II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
1.07
0.64
0.86
0.40
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.88
1.00
0.75
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
1.43
1.00
1.43
1.14
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
1.00
0.14
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Van II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Van II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sardarapat
BKMA II
Hayq
Andranik
Syunik
Ararat II
Araks Ararat
Banants II
Noah II
Bentonit Ijevan
Mika
Ararat-Armenia II
Lernayin Artsakh
Shirak II