This match between Vanspor FK and Istanbulspor is finely balanced, with the home team having won four of their last five matches, but only to be defeated in their most recent outing 1-4 against Manisa F.K. Meanwhile, Istanbulspor have been on a decent run, drawing their last match 2-2 against Bodrum FK. The model predicts a home win, with a probability of 39%, while the away win is at 32% and the draw at 30%.
The expected total goals is 2.5, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%. Vanspor FK have a similar strength tier at home, scoring an average of 0.73 goals and conceding 1.36. Istanbulspor, on the other hand, have a similar strength tier away, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 0.78.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.9% probability, Over 1.5 with a 72.5% probability, Over 21.5 fouls with a 70.9% probability, and Over 3.5 cards with a 70.4% probability. The home win percentage is 39%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
Results analysis
Vanspor FK’s recent win over İstanbulspor extended their winning streak, and the model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct, with a 3-2 finish. The pre-match favourite was the home win, assigned a 39 % probability, and the model’s call was right. The total of five goals matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, but the match exceeded that expectation. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.9 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.8 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.8 %. All selections performed as forecasted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vanspor FK win✓ Hit
38.6%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.41
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
Bet365
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.52
William Hil
3.50
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.31
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.45
Superbet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
İstanbulspor win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 45.6% · @ 2.00
Edge
-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.20
Unibet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.04
Dafabet
2.03
Betano
2.02
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vanspor FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.27
1.13
1.33
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.33
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.52
1.14
1.14
1.54
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
İstanbulspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.50
1.87
1.87
1.60
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
3.75
0.50
5.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.81
1.15
2.08
1.38
1.54
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.25-1.7%
Under 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.59+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
@ 1.82-5.7%
Under 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.91+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Under
Bet365
2.05
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
888Sport
1.95
SBO
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 2.99-6.7%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.34+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
BetVictor
3.13
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.97
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.67-3.3%
No
48.0%
@ 2.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Bet365
1.67
No
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 6.06+6.7%
1-0
9.6%@ 10.30+5.3%
0-0
9.5%@ 9.45+4.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 10.87+4.4%
0-1
8.4%@ 7.41+2.4%
1-2
7.5%@ 7.88+1.9%
2-0
7.2%@ 17.23+4.6%
0-2
5.7%@ 9.32+1.0%
Vanspor FK goals ↓
İstanbulspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
8.4%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.6%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.4%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vanspor FK goals (down), columns = İstanbulspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Esenler Erokspor
1.90
Bodrum FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.62
Antalyaspor
1.62
Pendikspor
1.62
Bandırmaspor
1.58
Bursaspor
1.56
Keçiörengücü
1.54
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.45
Sarıyer
1.37
İstanbulspor
1.37
Sivasspor
1.35
Batman Petrolspor
1.35
Iğdır FK
1.32
Vanspor FK
1.29
Boluspor
1.26
Mardin 1969
1.26
Muğlaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.21
Vanspor FK is 0.08 points worse than İstanbulspor in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Esenler Erokspor
2.08
Keçiörengücü
1.87
Bodrum FK
1.80
Kayserispor
1.72
Antalyaspor
1.72
Bursaspor
1.66
Boluspor
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
İstanbulspor
1.50
Manisa F.K.
1.50
Pendikspor
1.49
Batman Petrolspor
1.43
Iğdır FK
1.37
Vanspor FK
1.37
Mardin 1969
1.34
Muğlaspor
1.32
Bandırmaspor
1.24
Ümraniyespor
1.24
Sivasspor
1.19
Sarıyer
1.16
Vanspor FK is 0.13 goals worse than İstanbulspor in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bandırmaspor
0.89
Pendikspor
0.90
Esenler Erokspor
0.95
Bodrum FK
1.00
Keçiörengücü
1.13
Sarıyer
1.16
Sivasspor
1.16
Vanspor FK
1.24
Kayserispor
1.24
Antalyaspor
1.24
Bursaspor
1.29
Fatih Karagümrük
1.34
Ümraniyespor
1.34
Iğdır FK
1.42
İstanbulspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.47
Batman Petrolspor
1.49
Boluspor
1.50
Mardin 1969
1.59
Muğlaspor
1.62
Vanspor FK is 0.21 goals better than İstanbulspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
58%
Boluspor
57%
Iğdır FK
56%
Vanspor FK
55%
Pendikspor
52%
Sivasspor
50%
Bodrum FK
49%
İstanbulspor
48%
Sarıyer
48%
Keçiörengücü
48%
Ümraniyespor
47%
Manisa F.K.
46%
Bandırmaspor
45%
Vanspor FK is 6.9 percentage points better than İstanbulspor in terms of average possession (55% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vanspor FK
For 5.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
İstanbulspor
For 4.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vanspor FK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
8.3
8.9
7.8
4.6
4.7
4.6
27.7
26.8
28.6
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
8.0
9.5
4.2
5.5
3.3
28.0
30.0
26.0
vs Similar (39)
8.3
9.1
7.6
4.7
4.6
4.8
27.7
26.4
28.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
45%
25%
66%
75%
58%
88%
85%
90%
% under line
65%
55%
75%
34%
25%
42%
12%
15%
10%
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
İstanbulspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.1
8.9
4.1
3.2
5.0
23.0
22.1
24.0
vs Stronger (7)
9.8
9.7
10.0
2.3
1.0
4.0
20.4
19.7
21.5
vs Similar (43)
8.3
7.8
8.8
4.4
3.6
5.1
23.3
22.4
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
35%
50%
54%
42%
67%
60%
48%
73%
% under line
58%
65%
50%
46%
58%
33%
40%
52%
27%
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Mardin 1969
10.0
Sivasspor
9.6
Bandırmaspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.3
Bodrum FK
9.3
Bursaspor
9.1
Muğlaspor
9.0
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Manisa F.K.
8.5
Pendikspor
8.5
Vanspor FK
8.3
İstanbulspor
8.3
Boluspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.2
Sarıyer
7.9
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Batman Petrolspor
7.5
Muğlaspor
7.0
Vanspor FK
5.2
Antalyaspor
5.2
Sarıyer
5.1
Sivasspor
5.0
Pendikspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Boluspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.8
Iğdır FK
4.8
İstanbulspor
4.7
Keçiörengücü
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.7
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.1
Mardin 1969
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
34.5
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.7
Antalyaspor
27.1
Pendikspor
26.5
Mardin 1969
26.0
Boluspor
25.6
Kayserispor
24.8
Bodrum FK
24.0
Bandırmaspor
23.8
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
Manisa F.K.
23.4
Sarıyer
23.3
Ümraniyespor
23.2
İstanbulspor
23.2
Sivasspor
23.0
Batman Petrolspor
23.0
Esenler Erokspor
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.0%
@ 2.31+3.0%
Under 9.5
57.0%
@ 1.54-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.23
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.8%
Under 3.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vanspor FK or Draw✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.69
Edge
+13.7%
39%
30%
32%
covers Vanspor FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Vanspor FK or İstanbulspor✓ Hit
70.5%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.0%
39%
30%
32%
covers Vanspor FK + İstanbulspor
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or İstanbulspor✗ Miss
61.4%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-11.8%
39%
30%
32%
covers Draw + İstanbulspor
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
@ 1.38+5.8%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.85-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
888Sport
3.20
Superbet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.0%
@ 2.80+5.0%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.38-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Under
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.7%
@ 6.88+1.2%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.07-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Under
888Sport
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Vanspor FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 16.42-1.3%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
888Sport
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.2%
@ 1.19-9.2%
Under
30.8%
@ 4.31+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.22
Superbet
4.20
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.9%
@ 1.96-14.2%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.75+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 4.08-11.2%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.20+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.33
Pinnacle
4.29
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
3.98
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
İstanbulspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 9.36-6.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.05+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vanspor FK, so a minus line means Vanspor FK give that many goals of a start and İstanbulspor receive them. At -1, Vanspor FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vanspor FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vanspor FK)Actual: İstanbulspor
Vanspor FK -2
6.4%
@ 21.00+2.0%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 12.00+3.9%
İstanbulspor +2
81.9%
@ 1.06-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
Handicap -1 (Vanspor FK)Actual: Draw
Vanspor FK -1
18.1%
@ 7.55+6.4%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 5.28+3.8%
İstanbulspor +1
61.4%
@ 1.24-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap +1 (Vanspor FK)Actual: Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK +1
68.1%
@ 1.69+16.7%
Draw +1
18.2%
@ 3.65-5.6%
İstanbulspor -1
13.7%
@ 3.50-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.67
Unibet
1.56
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.65
Unibet
3.20
Away
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Handicap +2 (Vanspor FK)Actual: Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK +2
86.3%
@ 1.24+13.9%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 5.72-6.4%
İstanbulspor -2
4.4%
@ 7.53-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Away
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vanspor FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.70
0.43
0.43
0.46
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
İstanbulspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.73
0.92
0.77
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.36-0.4%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 2.92+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.1%
@ 2.67-3.5%
Under 1.5
68.9%
@ 1.41+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Betano
2.67
Marathonbet
2.66
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.2%
@ 6.42-3.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.4%
@ 2.32+4.5%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.54-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.34
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.50
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.0%
@ 7.97-0.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 11.25-5.2%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 1.85-6.8%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.85+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.0%
@ 5.23-6.5%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.11+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 10.00-6.8%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vanspor FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.80
0.67
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.81
0.71
0.71
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (İstanbulspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
İstanbulspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
0.00
3.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.42
1.15
0.62
0.92
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vanspor FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.20+0.7%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 3.91-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.90
William Hil
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.5%
@ 1.97-4.4%
Under 1.5
57.5%
@ 1.74+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 4.05-7.3%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.20+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vanspor FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.3%
@ 1.90+1.8%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.79-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.73
Vanspor FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.0%
@ 5.48-0.8%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.11+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Vanspor FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 10.00-6.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
İstanbulspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.58-3.2%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.24+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
İstanbulspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 3.68-9.8%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.23+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
İstanbulspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 8.85-7.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.2%
1.11
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-
-
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.07
888Sport
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.16
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.5%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-2.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vanspor FK · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iván Cédric36%
Santeri Hostikka26%
Muhammed Çoksu25%
Kenneth Mamah20%
Xesc Regis17%
Jefferson Junior11%
Hasan Bilal9%
Medeni Bingol9%
Can Kara Bekir9%
Emir Bars9%
Erdem Seçgin7%
Ensar Çavuşoğlu6%
Anestis Vlachomitros6%
Mehmet Özcan6%
Erdi Dikmen5%
Lucas Áfrico0%
Benito Ramírez0%
Oğulcan Çağlayan0%
Çağlar Şahin Akbaba0%
Batuhan İşçiler0%
Muhammed Alperen Uysal0%
Batuhan Kör0%
Aliou Badara Traore0%
Sabahattin Destici0%
Faruk Can Genç0%
Mert Colgecen0%
Güvenç Usta0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Alper Demirol0%
Mehmed Manis0%
Naby Oulare0%
Anil Siddik Yildirim0%
Anıl Yıldırım0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Áfrico27%
Erdi Dikmen27%
Jefferson Junior22%
Faruk Can Genç22%
Mehmet Özcan21%
Iván Cédric21%
Santeri Hostikka21%
Aliou Badara Traore21%
Oğulcan Çağlayan20%
Güvenç Usta20%
Naby Oulare20%
Sabahattin Destici19%
Hasan Bilal18%
Can Kara Bekir17%
Batuhan Kör17%
Ensar Çavuşoğlu16%
Batuhan İşçiler14%
Žan Jevšenak14%
Anestis Vlachomitros12%
Erdem Seçgin10%
Mehmed Manis9%
Emir Bars9%
Çağlar Şahin Akbaba6%
Medeni Bingol4%
Xesc Regis4%
Benito Ramírez0%
Muhammed Alperen Uysal0%
Mert Colgecen0%
Alper Demirol0%
Kenneth Mamah0%
Anil Siddik Yildirim0%
Muhammed Çoksu0%
Anıl Yıldırım0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erdem Seçgin17%
Iván Cédric15%
Jefferson Junior14%
Emir Bars13%
Sabahattin Destici11%
Faruk Can Genç11%
Santeri Hostikka11%
Kenneth Mamah10%
Hasan Bilal9%
Batuhan İşçiler7%
Anestis Vlachomitros6%
Aliou Badara Traore6%
Erdi Dikmen5%
Can Kara Bekir4%
Xesc Regis4%
Mehmet Özcan3%
Lucas Áfrico0%
Benito Ramírez0%
Oğulcan Çağlayan0%
Çağlar Şahin Akbaba0%
Muhammed Alperen Uysal0%
Medeni Bingol0%
Batuhan Kör0%
Mert Colgecen0%
Ensar Çavuşoğlu0%
Güvenç Usta0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Alper Demirol0%
Mehmed Manis0%
Naby Oulare0%
Anil Siddik Yildirim0%
Muhammed Çoksu0%
Anıl Yıldırım0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Iván Cédric33%
Muhammed Çoksu25%
Santeri Hostikka21%
Jefferson Junior14%
Kenneth Mamah10%
Erdem Seçgin7%
Emir Bars4%
Xesc Regis4%
Naby Oulare4%
Sabahattin Destici4%
Aliou Badara Traore3%
Lucas Áfrico0%
Benito Ramírez0%
Hasan Bilal0%
Oğulcan Çağlayan0%
Çağlar Şahin Akbaba0%
Batuhan İşçiler0%
Muhammed Alperen Uysal0%
Mehmet Özcan0%
Medeni Bingol0%
Erdi Dikmen0%
Batuhan Kör0%
Can Kara Bekir0%
Anestis Vlachomitros0%
Faruk Can Genç0%
Mert Colgecen0%
Ensar Çavuşoğlu0%
Güvenç Usta0%
Žan Jevšenak0%
Alper Demirol0%
Mehmed Manis0%
Anil Siddik Yildirim0%
Anıl Yıldırım0%
İstanbulspor · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emir Kaan Gültekin29%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz27%
Muhammed Mert25%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo21%
Florian Loshaj18%
Alieu Cham18%
Mario Krstovski17%
Vefa Temel16%
Fahri Ay14%
David Sambissa9%
Duran Sahin9%
Mustafa Sol8%
Yusuf Ali Özer7%
Mendy Mamadou7%
Dijlan Aydin5%
Özcan Şahan5%
Emrecan Uzunhan4%
Demeaco Duhaney4%
Cenk Şahin0%
Modestas Vorobjovas0%
Tuncer Duhan Aksu0%
Fatih Tultak0%
Alp Tutar0%
Isa Dogan0%
Yunus Bahadir0%
Michael Ologo0%
Ali Şahin Yılmaz0%
Izzet Ali Erdal0%
Isa Dayakli0%
Ertugrul Sandikci0%
Alieu Cham0%
Turan Deniz Tuncer0%
Elvin Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Turan Deniz Tuncer44%
Elvin Mendy33%
Yusuf Ali Özer30%
Ali Şahin Yılmaz29%
Emrecan Uzunhan28%
Michael Ologo25%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo21%
Vefa Temel16%
Demeaco Duhaney15%
Fahri Ay14%
Florian Loshaj14%
Özcan Şahan14%
Duran Sahin14%
Alieu Cham12%
Dijlan Aydin11%
Yunus Bahadir10%
Isa Dayakli10%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz9%
Mustafa Sol8%
Emir Kaan Gültekin7%
Mendy Mamadou7%
Modestas Vorobjovas6%
Fatih Tultak5%
Alp Tutar5%
Mario Krstovski3%
David Sambissa3%
Cenk Şahin0%
Muhammed Mert0%
Tuncer Duhan Aksu0%
Isa Dogan0%
Izzet Ali Erdal0%
Ertugrul Sandikci0%
Alieu Cham0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Sambissa22%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo14%
Florian Loshaj14%
Muhammed Mert12%
Yusuf Ali Özer11%
Dijlan Aydin11%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz9%
Mustafa Sol8%
Demeaco Duhaney8%
Tuncer Duhan Aksu8%
Vefa Temel5%
Isa Dayakli5%
Emrecan Uzunhan4%
Mendy Mamadou3%
Mario Krstovski3%
Cenk Şahin0%
Modestas Vorobjovas0%
Fatih Tultak0%
Emir Kaan Gültekin0%
Alp Tutar0%
Isa Dogan0%
Yunus Bahadir0%
Özcan Şahan0%
Michael Ologo0%
Ali Şahin Yılmaz0%
Izzet Ali Erdal0%
Fahri Ay0%
Ertugrul Sandikci0%
Alieu Cham0%
Alieu Cham0%
Duran Sahin0%
Turan Deniz Tuncer0%
Elvin Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Florian Loshaj23%
Alieu Cham18%
Emir Kaan Gültekin14%
Alieu Cham14%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo14%
Mario Krstovski10%
Ömer Faruk Duymaz9%
Mustafa Sol8%
Yusuf Ali Özer7%
Vefa Temel5%
Özcan Şahan5%
Emrecan Uzunhan4%
Mendy Mamadou3%
David Sambissa3%
Demeaco Duhaney0%
Cenk Şahin0%
Modestas Vorobjovas0%
Muhammed Mert0%
Tuncer Duhan Aksu0%
Fatih Tultak0%
Alp Tutar0%
Isa Dogan0%
Dijlan Aydin0%
Yunus Bahadir0%
Michael Ologo0%
Ali Şahin Yılmaz0%
Izzet Ali Erdal0%
Fahri Ay0%
Isa Dayakli0%
Ertugrul Sandikci0%
Duran Sahin0%
Turan Deniz Tuncer0%
Elvin Mendy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Vanspor FK's squad is €2m less valuable than İstanbulspor's (€6m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Vanspor FK's defence is €2m less valuable than İstanbulspor's (€2m vs €4m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Batman Petrolspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Bursaspor
Mardin 1969
Keçiörengücü
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Iğdır FK
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Ümraniyespor
Bodrum FK
Sivasspor
Boluspor