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Varnsdorf vs Prostějov Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 5-1
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Vs
61%
20%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Prostějov
Prostějov
Czech-Republic: FNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varnsdorf win✓ Hit
61.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Prostějov win✗ Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W22D21W00D01L21W11D14L41W11DH·VIK29/10A·PŘÍ03/11H·OPA12/11A·VLA02/03H·DUK10/03A·SPA17/03H·ART27/03A·TÁB06/04H·ZBR14/04A·CHR17/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.872.131.931.131.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.631.872.131.931.131.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ProstějovProstějov

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L21W01L04L20W12L24L21W21W01LH·DUK28/10A·OPA04/11H·HAN11/11A·SPA03/03H·SIG09/03A·VLA15/03H·CHR30/03A·ZBR06/04H·TÁB13/04H·VYŠ17/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.871.531.270.932.47
vs Stronger (8)1.252.381.001.251.503.50
vs Similar (22)1.231.681.731.270.732.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.1%
Under 2.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.6%
Under 3.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
3-0
5.6%
3-2
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
Varnsdorf goals ↓
Prostějov goals →
01234
03.0%2.3%2.0%0.9%0.3%
14.8%8.1%4.9%2.2%0.7%
26.8%9.1%6.1%2.7%0.9%
35.6%7.4%5.0%2.2%0.7%
43.4%4.6%3.1%1.4%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Varnsdorf goals (down), columns = Prostějov goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dukla Praha
2.00
Sigma Olomouc II
1.90
Táborsko
1.63
Vyškov
1.57
Chrudim
1.40
Opava
1.33
Vlašim
1.33
Zbrojovka Brno
1.30
Artis
1.30
Viktoria Žižkov
1.30
Příbram
1.23
Prostějov
1.23
Sparta Praha II
1.23
Varnsdorf
1.20
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Hanácká
0.83
Varnsdorf is 0.03 points worse than Prostějov in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dukla Praha
1.83
Sparta Praha II
1.73
Varnsdorf
1.70
Chrudim
1.63
Sigma Olomouc II
1.63
Vyškov
1.50
Viktoria Žižkov
1.47
Vysočina Jihlava
1.40
Prostějov
1.40
Zbrojovka Brno
1.37
Vlašim
1.37
Táborsko
1.37
Opava
1.20
Artis
1.13
Hanácká
1.10
Příbram
1.07
Varnsdorf is 0.30 goals better than Prostějov in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.87
Dukla Praha
0.97
Artis
1.13
Opava
1.20
Sigma Olomouc II
1.27
Vyškov
1.27
Zbrojovka Brno
1.40
Vlašim
1.43
Příbram
1.43
Vysočina Jihlava
1.53
Chrudim
1.60
Varnsdorf
1.67
Viktoria Žižkov
1.70
Prostějov
1.73
Hanácká
1.77
Sparta Praha II
1.93
Varnsdorf is 0.07 goals better than Prostějov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D11D00D00D20W01L02L21W00DH·VIK29/10A·PŘÍ03/11H·OPA12/11A·VLA02/03H·DUK10/03A·SPA17/03H·ART27/03A·TÁB06/04H·ZBR14/04A·CHR17/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.931.000.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.700.900.931.000.470.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ProstějovProstějov

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L20W00D02L10W11D00DH·DUK28/10A·OPA04/11H·HAN11/11A·SPA03/03H·SIG09/03A·VLA15/03H·CHR30/03A·ZBR06/04H·TÁB13/04H·VYŠ17/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.670.800.400.80
vs Stronger (8)0.501.000.250.250.751.75
vs Similar (22)0.550.730.821.000.270.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D10W00D01L01L10W12L20W11DH·VIK29/10A·PŘÍ03/11H·OPA12/11A·VLA02/03H·DUK10/03A·SPA17/03H·ART27/03A·TÁB06/04H·ZBR14/04A·CHR17/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.971.200.930.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.971.200.930.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Prostějov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ProstějovProstějov

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D02L00D12L22D11D10W01LH·DUK28/10A·OPA04/11H·HAN11/11A·SPA03/03H·SIG09/03A·VLA15/03H·CHR30/03A·ZBR06/04H·TÁB13/04H·VYŠ17/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.070.870.470.531.67
vs Stronger (8)0.751.380.751.000.751.75
vs Similar (22)0.680.950.910.270.451.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prostějov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZB (31)
€10m
ART (30)
€9m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DP (13)
€3m
ZB (10)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
VLA (8)
€2m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZB (8)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ART (13)
€5m
ZB (13)
€5m
DP (10)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
VAR wins
1
Draws
1
PRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Varnsdorf vs Prostějov · H/A from VAR
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23AProstějov Vs VAR1-0
04/03/23AProstějov Vs VAR1-1
14/08/22HVAR Vs Prostějov2-0

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/24AChrudim Vs VAR1-1
14/04/24HVAR Vs Zbrojovka Brno4-1
06/04/24ATáborsko Vs VAR4-1
27/03/24HVAR Vs Artis1-1
17/03/24ASparta Praha II Vs VAR1-2
10/03/24HVAR Vs Dukla Praha0-1
02/03/24AVlašim Vs VAR0-0
12/11/23HVAR Vs Opava2-1
03/11/23APříbram Vs VAR2-2
29/10/23HVAR Vs Viktoria Žižkov4-2

ProstějovProstějov

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/24HPRO Vs Vyškov0-1
13/04/24HPRO Vs Táborsko2-1
06/04/24AZbrojovka Brno Vs PRO1-2
30/03/24HPRO Vs Chrudim2-4
15/03/24AVlašim Vs PRO2-1
09/03/24HPRO Vs Sigma Olomouc II2-0
03/03/24ASparta Praha II Vs PRO4-0
11/11/23HPRO Vs Hanácká0-1
04/11/23AOpava Vs PRO1-2
28/10/23HPRO Vs Dukla Praha1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.24
HomeWWLDW1.68
AwayDDWLD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%44%16%
AVG goals3.323.882.76
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %38%52%24%
Scored1.702.281.12
Conceded1.621.601.64
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet12%20%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Prostějov
Prostějov
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.12
HomeLWLWL1.54
AwayLWLLW0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%46%12%
AVG goals3.242.963.54
Over 1.5 %82%73%92%
Over 2.5 %60%54%67%
Over 3.5 %38%35%42%
Scored1.321.541.08
Conceded1.921.422.46
BTTS62%54%71%
Clean Sheet12%19%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dukla PrahaDukla Praha3060
60%
2.0
5529+26
2.8
63%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3121.81.0
-
2Sigma Olomouc IISigma Olomouc II3057
60%
1.9
4938+11
2.9
70%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
3TáborskoTáborsko3049
43%
1.6
4126+15
2.2
60%
43%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.40.9
-
4VyškovVyškov3047
43%
1.6
4538+7
2.8
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
5ChrudimChrudim3042
37%
1.4
4948+1
3.2
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6OpavaOpava3040
37%
1.3
3636+0
2.4
63%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.2
-
7VlašimVlašim3040
30%
1.3
4143-2
2.8
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.41.4
-
8ArtisArtis3039
30%
1.3
3434+0
2.3
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2251.11.1
-
9Zbrojovka BrnoZbrojovka Brno3039
37%
1.3
4142-1
2.8
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.41.4
-
10Viktoria ŽižkovViktoria Žižkov3039
37%
1.3
4451-7
3.2
80%
50%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.7
-
11Sparta Praha IISparta Praha II3037
33%
1.2
5258-6
3.7
90%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
12ProstějovProstějov3037
37%
1.2
4252-10
3.1
73%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
13PříbramPříbram3037
37%
1.2
3243-11
2.5
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
14VarnsdorfVarnsdorf3036
27%
1.2
5150+1
3.4
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
15Vysočina JihlavaVysočina Jihlava3035
30%
1.2
4246-4
2.9
77%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
16HanáckáHanácká3025
20%
0.8
3353-20
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.8
-
Czech-Republic: FNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →

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