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Varnsdorf vs Vlašim Result & Analysis

Date: 02/10/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 3-1
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Vs
72%
18%
9%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vlašim
Vlašim
Czech-Republic: FNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varnsdorf win✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vlašim win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W03L20W30W12L23L11D10W21WH·OPA31/07A·ART06/08H·PRO14/08H·TŘI28/08H·PŘÍ31/08A·SLA04/09A·DUK08/09H·SIG11/09A·VYS16/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.222.000.601.252.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.501.381.750.751.252.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vlašim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VlašimVlašim

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L23L12L13L01L04L61W02L31WH·VYS30/07A·KAR05/08H·ART13/08A·SPA21/08H·OPA27/08A·TŘI31/08H·PRO04/09A·DUK11/09H·SLA18/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.442.112.001.400.753.00
vs Stronger (2)2.502.003.001.002.003.00
vs Similar (6)1.331.831.751.500.502.50
vs Weaker (1)0.004.00--0.004.00
Clean sheet %0% (-27pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.0%
Under 2.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
10.1%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.8%
3-1 ✓
7.2%
4-0
5.7%
0-0
5.5%
Varnsdorf goals ↓
Vlašim goals →
01234
05.5%2.7%1.3%0.3%0.1%
110%8.8%3.0%0.7%0.1%
213%9.3%3.4%0.8%0.2%
39.8%7.2%2.7%0.7%0.1%
45.7%4.2%1.5%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Varnsdorf goals (down), columns = Vlašim goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karviná
1.87
Vyškov
1.73
Příbram
1.70
Dukla Praha
1.57
Artis
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.43
Táborsko
1.40
Chrudim
1.30
Sigma Olomouc II
1.30
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Vlašim
1.27
Prostějov
1.20
Opava
1.13
Vysočina Jihlava
1.13
Slavia Praha II
1.07
Třinec
0.90
Varnsdorf is 0.17 points better than Vlašim in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karviná
1.93
Vlašim
1.80
Varnsdorf
1.80
Dukla Praha
1.70
Příbram
1.60
Vyškov
1.50
Slavia Praha II
1.40
Sigma Olomouc II
1.37
Táborsko
1.30
Prostějov
1.30
Artis
1.27
Vysočina Jihlava
1.23
Chrudim
1.07
Sparta Praha II
1.07
Třinec
1.00
Opava
0.87
Varnsdorf and Vlašim are level in goals scored per game (both 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Artis
0.90
Opava
0.97
Vyškov
0.97
Chrudim
1.07
Příbram
1.07
Karviná
1.23
Sparta Praha II
1.30
Táborsko
1.43
Dukla Praha
1.50
Sigma Olomouc II
1.53
Varnsdorf
1.53
Třinec
1.60
Vlašim
1.63
Vysočina Jihlava
1.70
Slavia Praha II
1.87
Prostějov
1.90
Varnsdorf is 0.10 goals better than Vlašim in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W03L10W00D01L12L10W10W11DH·OPA31/07A·ART06/08H·PRO14/08H·TŘI28/08H·PŘÍ31/08A·SLA04/09A·DUK08/09H·SIG11/09A·VYS16/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.780.890.800.400.751.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.881.001.000.500.751.50
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vlašim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VlašimVlašim

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W10W01L00D01L30W00D31WH·VYS30/07A·KAR05/08H·ART13/08A·SPA21/08H·OPA27/08A·TŘI31/08H·PRO04/09A·DUK11/09H·SLA18/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.400.600.500.75
vs Stronger (2)2.501.003.001.002.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.670.501.000.500.000.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W30W11D11D01L00D10WH·OPA31/07A·ART06/08H·PRO14/08H·TŘI28/08H·PŘÍ31/08A·SLA04/09A·DUK08/09H·SIG11/09A·VYS16/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.331.200.200.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.620.380.750.250.500.50
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vlašim) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VlašimVlašim

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L02L12L01L03L31W02L00DH·VYS30/07A·KAR05/08H·ART13/08A·SPA21/08H·OPA27/08A·TŘI31/08H·PRO04/09A·DUK11/09H·SLA18/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.441.440.600.800.252.25
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (6)0.671.330.751.000.502.00
vs Weaker (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Varnsdorf) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Varnsdorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Varnsdorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vlašim over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit
Home win72.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
ART (30)
€9m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
TŘI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
ART (9)
€2m
VLA (8)
€2m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TŘI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
ART (8)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
TŘI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
ART (13)
€5m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
VAR wins
0
Draws
0
VLA wins

Head-to-head

Varnsdorf vs Vlašim · H/A from VAR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

VarnsdorfVarnsdorf

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/22AVysočina Jihlava Vs VAR1-2
11/09/22HVAR Vs Sigma Olomouc II1-0
08/09/22ADukla Praha Vs VAR1-1
04/09/22ASlavia Praha II Vs VAR3-2
31/08/22HVAR Vs Příbram1-2
28/08/22HVAR Vs Třinec3-0
14/08/22HVAR Vs Prostějov2-0
06/08/22AArtis Vs VAR3-0
31/07/22HVAR Vs Opava3-1

VlašimVlašim

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/22HVLA Vs Slavia Praha II3-1
11/09/22ADukla Praha Vs VLA2-0
04/09/22HVLA Vs Prostějov6-1
31/08/22ATřinec Vs VLA4-0
27/08/22HVLA Vs Opava0-1
21/08/22ASparta Praha II Vs VLA3-1
13/08/22HVLA Vs Artis1-2
05/08/22AKarviná Vs VLA3-2
30/07/22HVLA Vs Vysočina Jihlava0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW1.78
HomeWWWLW2.40
AwayLLDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%80%25%
AVG goals2.892.603.25
Over 1.5 %89%80%100%
Over 2.5 %67%60%75%
Over 3.5 %22%20%25%
Scored1.672.001.25
Conceded1.220.602.00
BTTS56%40%75%
Clean Sheet33%60%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Vlašim
Vlašim
Czech-Republic: FNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW0.67
HomeLLLWW1.20
AwayLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%40%0%
AVG goals3.563.403.75
Over 1.5 %89%80%100%
Over 2.5 %67%60%75%
Over 3.5 %56%40%75%
Scored1.442.000.75
Conceded2.111.403.00
BTTS56%60%50%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvináKarviná3056
57%
1.9
5837+21
3.2
80%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
4121.91.2
-
2VyškovVyškov3052
47%
1.7
4529+16
2.5
77%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
3PříbramPříbram3051
47%
1.7
4832+16
2.7
83%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.1
-
4Dukla PrahaDukla Praha3047
47%
1.6
5145+6
3.2
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3121.71.5
-
5ArtisArtis3046
43%
1.5
3827+11
2.2
63%
47%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2251.30.9
-
6VarnsdorfVarnsdorf3043
40%
1.4
5446+8
3.3
90%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
7TáborskoTáborsko3042
37%
1.4
3943-4
2.7
73%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.4
-
8ChrudimChrudim3039
27%
1.3
3232+0
2.1
70%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9Sigma Olomouc IISigma Olomouc II3039
33%
1.3
4146-5
2.9
80%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
10Sparta Praha IISparta Praha II3039
37%
1.3
3239-7
2.4
73%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
11VlašimVlašim3038
37%
1.3
5449+5
3.4
90%
67%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.81.6
-
12ProstějovProstějov3036
30%
1.2
3957-18
3.2
90%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.9
-
13OpavaOpava3034
27%
1.1
2629-3
1.8
53%
27%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.0
-
14Vysočina JihlavaVysočina Jihlava3034
30%
1.1
3751-14
2.9
80%
57%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
15Slavia Praha IISlavia Praha II3032
27%
1.1
4256-14
3.3
80%
60%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
3261.41.9
-
16TřinecTřinec3027
20%
0.9
3048-18
2.6
80%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Czech-Republic: FNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →

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