Ferencvarosi TC are tipped to win this match, with a 52% chance of victory compared with 23% for Vasas and 25% for a draw. The model expects a total of three goals, but the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 11.6% probability. Vasas, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged three goals scored and none conceded, yet their recent form shows two straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Ujpest. Ferencvarosi TC, on the road to a weaker side, have scored 2.17 goals and conceded 1.08 on average, riding a four-game winning streak that ended with a 2-1 win over Puskas Academy. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.8%, Under 6.5 at 96.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 91.3%, Under 5.5 at 91.2%, Away +2 handicap at 90.5%, Home under 2.5 goals at 88.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 88.2%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasas win
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC win
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.77
2.13
0.73
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.07
1.88
0.88
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.54
2.33
0.67
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.90
1.92
0.54
1.94
1.18
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.12
2.50
0.50
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (22)
2.00
0.82
1.67
0.56
2.23
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.2%
Under 2.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.8%
Under 3.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.7%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
5.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
Vasas goals ↓
Ferencvarosi TC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
8.1%
8.7%
5.5%
2.6%
1
4.5%
11%
9.8%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.1%
5.9%
5.6%
3.5%
1.7%
3
1.2%
2.2%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasas goals (down), columns = Ferencvarosi TC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Vasas is 0.67 points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Vasas is 0.07 goals better than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Vasas is 0.17 goals worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Vasas is 14.8 percentage points worse than Ferencvarosi TC in terms of average possession (43% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vasas
For 1.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ferencvarosi TC
For 5.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 11.1 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
4%
0%
50%
0%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
96%
100%
50%
100%
0%
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
8.9
2.9
2.4
3.3
27.1
25.2
28.8
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
9.9
10.8
8.8
4.2
4.3
4.2
26.1
24.6
28.0
vs Weaker (36)
9.2
9.4
9.0
2.6
1.7
3.4
27.6
25.5
29.0
% over line
45%
54%
38%
42%
36%
48%
86%
85%
88%
% under line
55%
46%
62%
58%
64%
52%
14%
15%
12%
This opponent (Vasas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nyiregyhaza
11.0
Paks
10.4
Gyori ETO FC
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.9
MTK Budapest
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
8.9
Vasas
4.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nyiregyhaza
6.0
Paks
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.1
Kisvarda FC
4.1
Vasas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Nyiregyhaza
32.0
Paks
28.6
Ferencvarosi TC
27.9
Debreceni VSC
27.8
Puskas Academy
27.7
Ujpest
26.2
Gyori ETO FC
24.9
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.6
Kisvarda FC
24.1
Vasas
23.0
Budapest Honved
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.8%
Under 9.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.7%
Under 3.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.1%
Under 21.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vasas or Draw
46.0%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Vasas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vasas or Ferencvarosi TC
75.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Vasas + Ferencvarosi TC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
78.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
54%
covers Draw + Ferencvarosi TC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vasas over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vasas, so a minus line means Vasas give that many goals of a start and Ferencvarosi TC receive them. At -1, Vasas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vasas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vasas)
Vasas -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.0%
Ferencvarosi TC +2
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vasas)
Vasas -1
8.6%
Draw -1
12.9%
Ferencvarosi TC +1
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vasas)
Vasas +1
46.0%
Draw +1
22.2%
Ferencvarosi TC -1
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vasas)
Vasas +2
68.2%
Draw +2
16.8%
Ferencvarosi TC -2
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.17
0.80
0.13
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.20
0.75
0.12
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.15
0.83
0.17
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.77
0.31
1.12
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.62
1.25
0.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.36
0.56
0.44
1.23
0.31
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.12
0.75
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
1.50
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
1.15
0.23
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.50
1.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.45
1.11
0.11
1.00
0.69
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ferencvarosi TC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Krisztián Lisztes67%
K. Zachariassen33%
M. Gómez25%
M. Corbu25%
Yusuf Bamidele25%
C. O'Dowda0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Á. Nagy0%
Cadu0%
Z. Varga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Corbu50%
K. Zachariassen33%
C. O'Dowda33%
Cadu33%
Krisztián Lisztes33%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Á. Nagy0%
M. Gómez0%
Yusuf Bamidele0%
Z. Varga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cadu67%
Yusuf Bamidele25%
K. Zachariassen0%
C. O'Dowda0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Á. Nagy0%
M. Gómez0%
M. Corbu0%
Krisztián Lisztes0%
Z. Varga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yusuf Bamidele50%
Krisztián Lisztes33%
Z. Varga33%
M. Corbu25%
K. Zachariassen0%
C. O'Dowda0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Á. Nagy0%
M. Gómez0%
Cadu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Vasas's squad is €33m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€7m vs €40m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Vasas's attack is €21m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€3m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Vasas's midfield is €6m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Vasas's defence is €7m less valuable than Ferencvarosi TC's (€2m vs €9m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE