Vasas are tipped to win, with a 47% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 28% for Paks. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the model sees a 2-goal game as most likely, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% chance. At home, Vasas average 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded against similar opposition; Paks, on the road, average 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Over 19.5 fouls (91.0%), Under 5.5 (90.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.5%), Home +2 handicap (87.7%) and Over 2.5 cards (85.4%). Vasas have been in a slump with two straight defeats before a win, while Paks returned from a draw. The match is set to be a tight affair with a clear edge for the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasas win
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paks win
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.77
2.13
0.73
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.07
1.88
0.88
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
0.54
2.33
0.67
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.67
2.47
1.93
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.75
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.70
1.74
2.36
2.09
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.6%
3-1
5.6%
Vasas goals ↓
Paks goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.9%
4.0%
1.7%
0.6%
1
7.0%
12%
7.0%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.2%
5.6%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.5%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasas goals (down), columns = Paks goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Vasas and Paks are level in average points per game (both 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Vasas is 0.50 goals worse than Paks in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Vasas is 1.00 goals better than Paks in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Vasas is 7.0 percentage points worse than Paks in terms of average possession (43% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vasas
For 1.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
For 5.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
4.5
5.0
4.0
0.3
0.4
0.2
23.0
21.0
25.0
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
4%
0%
50%
0%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
96%
100%
50%
100%
0%
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.8
3.8
4.2
3.4
28.3
28.9
27.8
vs Stronger (7)
11.7
11.3
12.0
5.6
4.7
6.2
30.1
33.0
28.0
vs Similar (38)
10.4
10.3
10.4
3.9
4.7
3.2
28.0
28.2
27.7
vs Weaker (5)
8.0
8.0
-
0.6
1.0
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
59%
44%
72%
56%
57%
56%
85%
75%
94%
% under line
41%
56%
28%
44%
43%
44%
15%
25%
6%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nyiregyhaza
11.0
Paks
10.4
Gyori ETO FC
10.0
Debreceni VSC
9.9
Ujpest
9.9
Kisvarda FC
9.9
MTK Budapest
9.8
Puskas Academy
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
8.9
Vasas
4.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nyiregyhaza
6.0
Paks
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.4
Budapest Honved
4.1
Kisvarda FC
4.1
Vasas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Nyiregyhaza
32.0
Paks
28.6
Ferencvarosi TC
27.9
Debreceni VSC
27.8
Puskas Academy
27.7
Ujpest
26.2
Gyori ETO FC
24.9
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.6
Kisvarda FC
24.1
Vasas
23.0
Budapest Honved
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vasas or Draw
72.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Vasas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vasas or Paks
74.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Vasas + Paks
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paks
52.9%
Avg Implied -
47%
25%
28%
covers Draw + Paks
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vasas over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vasas, so a minus line means Vasas give that many goals of a start and Paks receive them. At -1, Vasas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vasas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vasas)
Vasas -2
11.6%
Draw -2
14.6%
Paks +2
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vasas)
Vasas -1
26.2%
Draw -1
20.9%
Paks +1
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vasas)
Vasas +1
72.4%
Draw +1
15.3%
Paks -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vasas)
Vasas +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.1%
Paks -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.17
0.80
0.13
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.20
0.75
0.12
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.15
0.83
0.17
0.57
0.14
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.07
0.87
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.78
1.18
1.00
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.12
0.75
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
1.50
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.40
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.96
1.18
1.09
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
József Szalai83%
M. Pető43%
J. Windecker33%
Zsolt Haraszti20%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
Kristóf Papp0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
K. Horváth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Windecker50%
K. Horváth43%
B. Lenzsér40%
J. Szabó40%
Kristóf Papp29%
J. Hahn25%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
M. Pető14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
József Szalai0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zsolt Haraszti40%
Andor Lapu40%
B. Vécsei33%
Kristóf Papp29%
József Szalai17%
K. Horváth14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
J. Windecker0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
M. Pető0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
József Szalai50%
M. Pető43%
Dániel Böde25%
J. Hahn25%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Kristóf Papp0%
J. Windecker0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Andor Lapu0%
K. Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Vasas's squad is €1m less valuable than Paks's (€7m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Vasas and Paks have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Vasas and Paks have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Vasas's defence is €2m less valuable than Paks's (€2m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE