This highly anticipated match between Vasas and Puskas Academy in Hungary's top tier is finely balanced, with Vasas enjoying a 2-game winning run, having recently defeated Budapest Honved 2-1. However, Puskas Academy is coming off a win against MTK Budapest, with a score of 3-2.
The model predicts a 38% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being a home win. The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability.
Vasas has an average of 2 goals scored and 2 goals conceded at home, while Puskas Academy averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded away from home, against opponents of similar strength. The model suggests selecting Over 21.5 fouls (84%), Over 1.5 goals (81.8%), and Over 3.5 cards (75%). The probabilities for the match result are a 38% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Puskas Academy snatching a 1-0 away win from Vasas, ending the home side’s recent run of one loss and two wins. The pre-match favourite, a home win at 38 %, was wrong, as the model’s call proved incorrect. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away triumph. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.2 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.7 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.0 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each pick was noted as hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasas win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.15
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Dafabet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.41
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Puskas Academy win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.03
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.27
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.08
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.73
2.40
0.87
1.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
0.92
2.14
0.86
2.17
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
0.67
2.57
1.00
1.38
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.23
1.21
1.43
1.50
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.31
1.23
1.23
1.38
1.38
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
-
-
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.9%
@ 1.18+2.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
@ 4.42-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.36
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.7%
@ 1.60+0.5%
Under 2.5
41.3%
@ 2.23-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Under
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
888Sport
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.3%
@ 2.47-1.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
@ 1.49+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.2%
@ 1.50+0.6%
No
37.8%
@ 2.40-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
No
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.35+5.2%
2-1
8.6%@ 7.96+3.1%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.77+3.7%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.18+2.1%
1-0
6.3%@ 9.31+1.6%
0-1 ✓
6.0%@ 11.15+2.1%
0-0
5.9%@ 12.69+2.4%
2-0
5.8%@ 11.28+1.9%
Vasas goals ↓
Puskas Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.0%
5.3%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.3%
12%
8.2%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.6%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.0%
4.5%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasas goals (down), columns = Puskas Academy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Vasas is 0.67 points worse than Puskas Academy in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Vasas and Puskas Academy are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Vasas is 0.17 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Vasas is 2.4 percentage points worse than Puskas Academy in terms of average possession (43% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vasas
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Puskas Academy
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 9.7 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
0%
0%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.1
3.9
3.4
4.3
27.9
27.0
28.9
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
11.0
9.0
3.5
3.0
3.7
33.0
32.0
33.3
vs Similar (43)
9.8
9.5
10.2
4.2
3.6
4.8
27.4
26.7
28.1
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
65%
52%
42%
62%
82%
70%
95%
% under line
43%
50%
35%
48%
58%
38%
18%
30%
5%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.3
Ujpest
10.0
Puskas Academy
9.8
Gyori ETO FC
9.8
Debreceni VSC
9.7
Kisvarda FC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Budapest Honved
9.4
Ferencvarosi TC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.0
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Paks
5.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.7
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
MTK Budapest
4.3
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.5
Debreceni VSC
28.0
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Ujpest
26.2
MTK Budapest
24.8
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.3
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.3
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.6%
@ 1.77-8.9%
Under 9.5
56.4%
@ 1.96+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.58
Under
Unibet
2.17
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vasas or Draw✗ Miss
64.6%
Avg Implied 69.3% · @ 1.33
Edge
-4.7%
38%
26%
35%
covers Vasas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
888Sport
1.36
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Vasas or Puskas Academy✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.0%
38%
26%
35%
covers Vasas + Puskas Academy
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Puskas Academy✓ Hit
61.6%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.63
Edge
+4.7%
38%
26%
35%
covers Draw + Puskas Academy
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vasas over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.9%
@ 1.16-0.9%
Under
21.1%
@ 4.59+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Vasas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.1%
@ 1.85-4.1%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.86+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
888Sport
1.85
Vasas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 3.64-4.8%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.24+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.86
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Vasas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 8.26-4.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.80
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.4%
@ 1.26+4.2%
Under
22.6%
@ 3.46-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Under
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Unibet
3.45
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.8%
@ 2.31+3.7%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.55-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Superbet
2.27
Under
Betano
1.60
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.56
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 5.05+0.6%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.13-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
888Sport
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Puskas Academy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 12.38-1.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vasas, so a minus line means Vasas give that many goals of a start and Puskas Academy receive them. At -1, Vasas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vasas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vasas)Actual: Puskas Academy
Vasas -2
7.7%
@ 7.65-4.0%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 5.95-3.3%
Puskas Academy +2
80.6%
@ 1.22+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.30
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Vasas)Actual: Puskas Academy
Vasas -1
19.4%
@ 3.83-3.8%
Draw -1
18.9%
@ 4.02-3.3%
Puskas Academy +1
61.6%
@ 1.64+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.76
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Vasas)Actual: Draw
Vasas +1
64.6%
@ 1.33-2.1%
Draw +1
18.0%
@ 4.86-0.3%
Puskas Academy -1
17.3%
@ 5.96+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Unibet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Vasas)Actual: Vasas
Vasas +2
82.7%
@ 1.10+0.7%
Draw +2
10.7%
@ 8.40-0.1%
Puskas Academy -2
6.6%
@ 12.50-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.23
0.93
0.27
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.23
0.86
0.14
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
80% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.54
0.62
0.54
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.29+4.8%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.26-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.33-0.4%
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.54+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.42
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 5.27+0.6%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.12-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.10
Under
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
56.8%
@ 1.77+4.5%
Under
43.2%
@ 1.94-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.75
Under
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.93
Vasas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 4.81+1.1%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.15-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Betano
4.80
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Vasas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 12.17-2.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 2.05-8.0%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.69+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 6.30-6.7%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.08+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
10Bet
6.00
Betano
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 17.67-4.0%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.47
0.60
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.69
1.29
0.71
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.40
1.57
0.57
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.64
0.93
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.85
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.6%
Under 0.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.4%
Under 1.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.9%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.9%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
1.36
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
-
+10.7%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.4%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
1.29
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Puskas Academy
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lamin Colley50%
Georgiy Harutyunyan40%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Martin Kern20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Michael Okeke0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Roland Orján67%
Martin Kern60%
Lamin Colley50%
Laros Duarte25%
Wojciech Golla20%
András Németh20%
Michael Okeke20%
Zsombor Varga20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Dániel Lukács0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Urho Nissilä33%
Roland Szolnoki25%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Lamin Colley0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamin Colley25%
Dániel Lukács20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
András Németh0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Vasas's squad is €4m less valuable than Puskas Academy's (€7m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Vasas's attack is €2m less valuable than Puskas Academy's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Vasas and Puskas Academy have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Vasas's defence is €2m less valuable than Puskas Academy's (€2m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE