Vasas vs Zalaegerszegi TE Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 46% chance for Zalaegerszegi TE and 27% each for a Vasas victory or a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.6% probability. Vasas, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Zalaegerszegi TE on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards (94.1%), Over 8.5 corners (88.3%), Over 3.5 cards (85.4%), Over 9.5 corners (81.0%), Over 1.5 goals (79.2%, hit), Over 4.5 cards (72.3%), and Over 10.5 corners (71.7%). The probabilities for the match outcome remain 27% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 46% for an away win.

The pre-match favourite, the away side, fell short in a 1-1 draw that stunned the pundits. Vasas, after two straight defeats, managed a point at home, while Zalaegerszegi TE, still on a four-game losing streak, could not secure the win the model had predicted with a 46% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, which hit at a 79.2% probability. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which carried a 12.6% chance. The match finished as a draw, leaving the predicted away win unfulfilled.