Vasas are favourites to win at home against Zalaegerszegi TE, with a 47% chance of a home win. The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3 goals expected. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 12.2% of the time.
Vasas have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.22 goals and conceding 1.22 against weaker opponents. In contrast, Zalaegerszegi TE struggle when away, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a draw and away win also possible at 26% and 27% respectively. The model also suggests taking Under 9.5 corners, which is likely to occur 85.7% of the time, and Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.4% chance of happening.
Results analysis
The win extends Vasas' run, with a 5-0 thrashing of Zalaegerszegi TE. The actual result was a home win, in line with the model's call, which was correct. The model had identified Home win as its selection, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 79.2%. The model had also predicted Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a probability of 79.2%. The most likely scores included 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, but the actual score was 5-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vasas win✓ Hit
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE win✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vasas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.73
2.33
0.93
1.73
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.20
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
0.62
2.57
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
2.00
0.80
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
3.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.04
1.93
0.79
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
6.8%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
Vasas goals ↓
Zalaegerszegi TE goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.6%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.4%
12%
6.7%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.5%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.5%
5.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vasas goals (down), columns = Zalaegerszegi TE goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Vasas is 0.83 points better than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Vasas is 0.83 goals better than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Vasas is 1.33 goals better than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Vasas is 5.6 percentage points worse than Zalaegerszegi TE in terms of average possession (43% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vasas
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zalaegerszegi TE
For 3.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vasas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Weaker (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
0%
0%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.1
8.8
3.2
3.5
2.8
24.3
24.6
23.9
vs Stronger (5)
10.8
12.0
9.5
3.0
4.0
2.3
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Similar (45)
8.7
8.7
8.7
3.2
3.5
2.9
24.8
25.3
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
53%
31%
42%
52%
32%
70%
76%
62%
% under line
58%
47%
69%
58%
48%
68%
30%
24%
38%
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.6
Ujpest
10.1
Puskas Academy
9.7
Kisvarda FC
9.7
Debreceni VSC
9.7
Ferencvarosi TC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.2
Gyori ETO FC
9.2
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.9
Gyori ETO FC
4.6
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.6
Debreceni VSC
28.1
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ujpest
25.8
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.2
MTK Budapest
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.6
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Budapest Honved
23.0
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.7%
Under 9.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.1%
Under 3.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.5%
Under 21.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vasas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.20
0.87
0.27
0.80
0.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.17
0.71
0.14
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.43
0.78
0.11
Clean sheet %
83% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.54
0.71
0.43
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vasas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.47
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.29
0.86
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.38
1.57
0.57
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Zalaegerszegi TE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zalaegerszegi TE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
3.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
0.50
1.21
0.36
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Vasas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vasas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vasas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zalaegerszegi TE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zalaegerszegi TE
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
José Calderón20%
Bence Babos20%
Arthur Henrique Marques20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
Norbert Szendrei0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Fabricio Amato0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Moises Cedeno0%
Diogo Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseth Peraza75%
Norbert Szendrei33%
Moises Cedeno33%
Queyrell Tchicamboud25%
José Calderón20%
Fabricio Amato20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
András Csonka20%
Bence Gundel-Takács20%
Bence Kiss0%
Norbert Szendrei0%
José Calderón0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Fabricio Amato0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Moises Cedeno0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Norbert Szendrei33%
Moises Cedeno33%
Fabricio Amato20%
Bence Kiss0%
András Csonka0%
Bence Gundel-Takács0%
José Calderón0%
Joseth Peraza0%
Queyrell Tchicamboud0%
Bence Babos0%
Danylo Krevsun0%
Maxsuell Alegria0%
Lucas Alfonso0%
Arthur Henrique Marques0%
Diogo Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Vasas's squad is €2m more valuable than Zalaegerszegi TE's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Vasas's attack is €1m more valuable than Zalaegerszegi TE's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Vasas and Zalaegerszegi TE have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Vasas and Zalaegerszegi TE have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Paks
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC