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Vestri vs IR Reykjavik Result & Analysis

Date: 13/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Vestri
Vestri
Vs
28%
27%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

IR Reykjavik's recent 2-game winning run has put them in a strong position ahead of this match against Vestri. However, Vestri's home form against stronger opponents is concerning, with an average of 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. IR Reykjavik, on the other hand, has been scoring at a rate of 2.0 goals per game when facing weaker opponents away from home.

The model predicts an away win with a 44% probability, making it the most likely result. The model's selection is the away win. A draw is also possible, with a 27% chance. Vestri's home win percentage is 28%.

The expected total goals in this match is 2.8. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.5% probability. IR Reykjavik's away scoring average is 2.0 goals, while Vestri concedes 1.12 goals at home.

Results analysis

In a stunning turn of events, Vestri's 1-0 win over IR Reykjavik extends their run of three consecutive victories, with the last two coming against IR Reykjavik. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the pre-match favourite, IR Reykjavik, who had a 44% chance of winning. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with IR Reykjavik not coming through. The model's selection of an Away win had a 44% probability of occurring. The model also suggested Over 1.5, which had a 77.5% probability of happening, but missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vestri win✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.51
Edge
-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.58
Dafabet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.51
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
IR Reykjavik win✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.38
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
Betano
2.42
Dafabet
2.42
William Hil
2.40

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VestriVestri

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-625L22D10W04L25L03L26L11D03L13LA·FRA28/02A·STJ17/03H·LEI11/04H·GRO14/05H·FYL13/07H·QAR16/07A·HK 20/07H·RĪG30/07H·GRO03/08A·NJA08/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.470.812.501.292.43
vs Stronger (8)0.751.880.332.001.001.80
vs Similar (21)1.102.760.922.621.383.00
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L43W33D32W02L23L15L00D20W32WA·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07H·ÆGI06/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.632.401.601.271.67
vs Stronger (4)2.502.003.503.001.501.00
vs Similar (24)1.621.542.171.331.081.75
vs Weaker (2)3.002.003.002.003.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.14-3.6%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 4.90+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Under
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.50-9.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.39+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Pinnacle
1.54
10Bet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betano
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
@ 2.25-11.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
@ 1.57+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Under
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
@ 1.43-7.8%
No
43.5%
@ 2.57+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
10Bet
1.44
No
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.59
BetVictor
2.55

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.71+6.7%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.56+4.3%
0-1
8.6%@ 10.96+4.8%
0-2
7.7%@ 13.38+4.5%
0-0
7.5%@ 15.26+4.7%
2-1
7.1%@ 8.79+2.3%
1-0 ✓
6.4%@ 11.34+2.6%
2-2
5.6%@ 9.62+1.2%
Vestri goals ↓
IR Reykjavik goals →
01234
07.5%8.6%7.7%4.0%1.6%
16.4%13%9.2%4.8%1.9%
24.6%7.1%5.6%2.9%1.1%
31.8%2.9%2.2%1.2%0.5%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vestri goals (down), columns = IR Reykjavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Vestri is 0.88 points worse than IR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Vestri is 0.62 goals worse than IR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Vestri is 1.00 goals worse than IR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.62 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VestriVestri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W00D04L05L02L04L11D02L11DA·FRA28/02A·STJ17/03H·LEI11/04H·GRO14/05H·FYL13/07H·QAR16/07A·HK 20/07H·RĪG30/07H·GRO03/08A·NJA08/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.300.381.560.791.00
vs Stronger (8)0.621.250.331.330.801.20
vs Similar (21)0.521.380.381.620.751.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L32W11D00D00D04L00D10W10WA·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07H·ÆGI06/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.630.800.600.930.67
vs Stronger (4)1.250.751.001.501.500.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.620.750.500.670.75
vs Weaker (2)2.000.501.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vestri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VestriVestri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L01L10W00D20W01L22D00D01L02LA·FRA28/02A·STJ17/03H·LEI11/04H·GRO14/05H·FYL13/07H·QAR16/07A·HK 20/07H·RĪG30/07H·GRO03/08A·NJA08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.170.440.940.501.43
vs Stronger (8)0.120.620.000.670.200.60
vs Similar (21)0.571.380.541.000.622.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (IR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L31W01L21W02L23L11D00D10W22DA·NJA01/02H·KA 07/02A·KR 14/02H·GRI26/02A·VIK04/03H·AFT29/03A·HK 14/07A·GRI18/07H·FYL25/07H·ÆGI06/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.001.601.000.331.00
vs Stronger (4)1.251.252.501.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.921.420.830.421.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vestri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
--3.6%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Vestri and IR Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Vestri and IR Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Vestri and IR Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Vestri and IR Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
VES wins
0
Draws
0
IR wins

Head-to-head

Vestri vs IR Reykjavik · H/A from VES
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

VestriVestri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26ANjardvik Vs VES3-1
03/08/26HVES Vs Grotta0-3
30/07/26HVES Vs Rīgas FS1-1
20/07/26AHK Kopavogur Vs VES6-2
16/07/26HVES Vs Qarabag0-3
13/07/26HVES Vs Fylkir2-5
14/05/26HVES Vs Grotta0-4
11/04/26HVES Vs Leiknir R.1-0
17/03/26AStjarnan Vs VES2-2
28/02/26AFram Reykjavik Vs VES5-2

IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/08/26HIR Vs Ægir3-2
25/07/26HIR Vs Fylkir2-0
18/07/26AGrindavik Vs IR0-0
14/07/26AHK Kopavogur Vs IR5-1
29/03/26HIR Vs Afturelding2-3
04/03/26AVikingur Reykjavik Vs IR2-0
26/02/26HIR Vs Grindavik3-2
14/02/26AKR Reykjavik Vs IR3-3
07/02/26HIR Vs KA Akureyri4-3
01/02/26ANjardvik Vs IR3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vestri
Vestri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.10
HomeLLLDL1.12
AwayLLDLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.142.963.32
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.221.041.40
Conceded1.921.921.92
BTTS54%36%72%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards0.000.00-
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW1.62
HomeWWLWW2.05
AwayLDLLD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%64%29%
AVG goals3.183.502.93
Over 1.5 %80%77%82%
Over 2.5 %58%64%54%
Over 3.5 %42%45%39%
Scored1.702.091.39
Conceded1.481.411.54
BTTS68%68%68%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding920
67%
2.2
3013+17
4.8
100%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1003.31.4
-
2NjardvikNjardvik918
67%
2.0
2217+5
4.3
89%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.9
-
3Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik816
62%
2.0
2211+11
4.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.4
-
4FylkirFylkir916
56%
1.8
2517+8
4.7
100%
89%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.9
-
5VölsungurVölsungur915
56%
1.7
1417-3
3.4
89%
56%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
6GrindavikGrindavik1014
40%
1.4
1522-7
3.7
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
7HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur813
50%
1.6
2516+9
5.1
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.12.0
-
8IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik813
50%
1.6
1313+0
3.2
75%
62%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.6
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.89
38%
1.1
1514+1
3.6
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.8
-
10GrottaGrotta98
22%
0.9
1416-2
3.3
89%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
11VestriVestri86
25%
0.8
821-13
3.6
88%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.6
-
12ÆgirÆgir70
0%
0.0
632-26
5.4
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.94.6
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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