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Victoria Bardar vs Făleşti Result & Analysis

Date: 14/03/2025
Time: 00:00
Final 5-1
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
Vs
73%
17%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Făleşti
Făleşti
Moldova: Super Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Victoria Bardar are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 73% chance to a home win, the highest of the three outcomes. The team’s recent form, a 0-2 loss, has not shaken confidence, and their home scoring average of 2.5 goals per game against similarly ranked opponents underlines why the model rates them so highly. Fălești, on the other hand, have struggled away, conceding 2.42 goals on average and scoring only 1.58 against similar teams, making a home win the most likely result.

The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most probable total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.2% probability. The model’s picks include an 87.1% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 73.0% chance of a home win, both marked as hits.

Home win 73%, draw 17%, away win 10%. Suggested picks: Over 1.5% 87.1, Home win% 73.0.

Results analysis

Victoria Bardar’s win extended their recent run, ending a defeat and turning a 0-2 loss into a 5-1 triumph over Fălești. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 73.0% probability, and it proved correct. The final score of 5-1 confirmed the predicted outcome. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.1% chance, also hit, as the match produced five goals. Both the home win and the over-goal pick were settled in favour of the predictions, and the most likely scoreline of 2-0 was not reached, but the overall forecast was largely accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Victoria Bardar win✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-843W30W83W41W22D32W12L01L82W01LA·FCM29/09A·FC 04/10H·ISK18/10A·SPE26/10A·OLI01/11A·FCM08/11H·FC 22/11A·ISK29/11H·SPE07/12H·FC 08/03← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.671.203.121.062.141.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.410.942.501.002.290.86
vs Weaker (13)3.001.544.171.172.001.86
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-643W30W31W02L04L14L32W02L03L06LA·VUL27/09H·SPE05/10H·GAG19/10A·SHE25/10A·SAX02/11H·VUL09/11A·SPE23/11A·GAG29/11H·SHE07/12A·DAC07/03← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.472.571.642.361.312.75
vs Stronger (8)0.753.751.003.750.503.75
vs Similar (21)1.712.141.891.781.582.42
vs Weaker (1)2.002.002.002.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.8%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.8%
1-0
7.1%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
5.2%
Victoria Bardar goals ↓
Făleşti goals →
01234
03.7%2.0%1.2%0.4%0.1%
17.1%7.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
210%9.2%4.2%1.3%0.3%
38.8%8.0%3.6%1.1%0.2%
45.7%5.2%2.3%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Bardar goals (down), columns = Făleşti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saxan
2.46
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.33
Speranis Nisporeni
2.25
Zimbru
1.88
Milsami Orhei
1.75
FC Stăuceni
1.73
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.54
Iskra
1.50
Victoria Bardar
1.25
CSF Bălți
1.17
Făleşti
0.75
Spartanii Selemet
0.67
Floreşti
0.04
Olimp Comrat
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
0.00
FCM Ungheni
0.00
Victoria Bardar is 0.50 points better than Făleşti in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Saxan
3.69
Milsami Orhei
2.29
Zimbru
2.25
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.08
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.92
Petrocub
1.67
FC Stăuceni
1.55
Iskra
1.50
Speranis Nisporeni
1.50
Făleşti
1.17
CSF Bălți
1.12
Olimp Comrat
1.00
FCM Ungheni
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Floreşti
0.12
Victoria Bardar is 0.83 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.50
Saxan
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani
0.92
Zimbru
1.04
Petrocub
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.08
Speranis Nisporeni
1.25
FC Stăuceni
1.36
CSF Bălți
1.38
Victoria Bardar
1.92
Spartanii Selemet
2.29
Făleşti
2.67
Olimp Comrat
3.00
Iskra
3.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
3.00
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Floreşti
4.60
Victoria Bardar is 0.75 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 2.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L10W11D11D21W11D01L00DA·OLI10/08H·FCM16/08H·FC 24/08A·ISK31/08A·FCM29/09H·ISK18/10A·SPE26/10A·OLI01/11H·FC 22/11A·ISK29/11← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.870.870.670.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.500.750.751.000.17
vs Weaker (16)0.691.191.001.000.441.33
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FăleştiFăleşti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L20W10W02L02L02L01L01LA·GAG30/08A·SAX21/09A·VUL27/09H·GAG19/10A·SHE25/10A·SAX02/11H·VUL09/11A·SPE23/11A·GAG29/11H·SHE07/12← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.240.381.250.461.23
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.001.000.670.67
vs Similar (14)0.501.290.601.400.441.22
vs Weaker (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W20W00D21W32W72W20W11D11D01LA·OLI10/08H·FCM16/08H·FC 24/08A·ISK31/08A·FCM29/09H·ISK18/10A·SPE26/10A·OLI01/11H·FC 22/11A·ISK29/11← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.901.730.801.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.930.642.250.621.500.67
vs Weaker (16)1.251.121.141.001.331.22
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FăleştiFăleşti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W31W11D02L12L30W01L02LA·SPE23/08A·GAG30/08A·SAX21/09A·VUL27/09H·GAG19/10A·SAX02/11H·VUL09/11A·SPE23/11A·GAG29/11H·SHE07/12← Liga 1Super Liga →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.050.502.251.001.92
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.001.500.501.00
vs Similar (14)1.002.140.602.601.221.89
vs Weaker (2)0.503.001.002.000.004.00
Clean sheet %15% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Bardar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Bardar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Bardar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✓ Hit
Home win73.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
VB wins
0
Draws
0
FĂL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Victoria Bardar vs Făleşti · H/A from VB
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/23HVB Vs Făleşti6-2
21/04/23AFăleşti Vs VB1-5
11/03/23HVB Vs Făleşti3-1

Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HVB Vs FC Stăuceni0-1
07/12/24HVB Vs Speranța Drochia8-2
29/11/24AIskra Vs VB1-0
22/11/24HVB Vs FC Stăuceni1-2
08/11/24AFCM Ungheni Vs VB2-3
01/11/24AOlimp Comrat Vs VB2-2
26/10/24ASperanța Drochia Vs VB1-4
18/10/24HVB Vs Iskra8-3
04/10/24AFC Stăuceni Vs VB0-3
29/09/24AFCM Ungheni Vs VB3-4

FăleştiFăleşti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25ADacia-Buiucani Vs FĂL6-0
07/12/24HFĂL Vs Sheriff II0-3
29/11/24AGagauziya-Oguzsport Vs FĂL2-0
23/11/24ASperanis Nisporeni Vs FĂL2-3
09/11/24HFĂL Vs Vulturii Cutezători1-4
02/11/24ASaxan Vs FĂL4-0
25/10/24ASheriff II Vs FĂL2-0
19/10/24HFĂL Vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport3-1
05/10/24HFĂL Vs Speranis Nisporeni3-0
27/09/24AVulturii Cutezători Vs FĂL3-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL2.06
HomeWWLWL2.40
AwayWWDWL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%80%52%
AVG goals4.164.523.80
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %74%76%72%
Over 3.5 %58%56%60%
Scored2.763.402.12
Conceded1.401.121.68
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Făleşti
Făleşti
Moldova: Super Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.96
HomeLWWLL1.00
AwayLLWLL0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%30%30%
AVG goals4.204.174.22
Over 1.5 %90%87%93%
Over 2.5 %78%83%74%
Over 3.5 %52%52%52%
Scored1.341.391.30
Conceded2.862.782.93
BTTS54%65%44%
Clean Sheet14%13%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff TiraspolSheriff Tiraspol2456
67%
2.3
5012+38
2.6
67%
46%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3132.10.5
-
2ZimbruZimbru2445
58%
1.9
5425+29
3.3
79%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2112.21.0
-
3Milsami OrheiMilsami Orhei2442
50%
1.8
5526+29
3.4
92%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.31.1
-
4Dacia-BuiucaniDacia-Buiucani2439
46%
1.6
4622+24
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.90.9
-
5PetrocubPetrocub2437
42%
1.5
4026+14
2.8
79%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.1
-
6SaxanSaxan1332
77%
2.5
488+40
4.3
100%
69%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.6
-
7CSF BălțiCSF Bălți2428
29%
1.2
2733-6
2.5
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.4
-
8FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1119
55%
1.7
1715+2
2.9
73%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
9Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet2416
12%
0.7
2155-34
3.2
75%
58%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
10Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1215
42%
1.2
2423+1
3.9
92%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.9
-
11Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni49
75%
2.2
65+1
2.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12FăleştiFăleşti129
25%
0.8
1432-18
3.8
92%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.7
-
13IskraIskra23
50%
1.5
36-3
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.0
-
14FloreştiFloreşti251
0%
0.0
3115-112
4.7
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.14.6
-
15Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
-
16FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
17Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Moldova: Super Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →

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