The model favours an away win, with FC Differdange 03 expected to edge Victoria Rosport 44% to 31% for a win and a 26% chance of a draw. The match is projected to see about 3.1 goals on average, yet the most likely total is two, with a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7% probability. Victoria Rosport, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while FC Differdange 03, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.88 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, with an 83.1% probability. The recent form story is that Victoria come off a draw in their last match, whereas FC Differdange are riding a four-game winning streak. All figures are presented as percentages and the only scoreline mentioned is the 1-1.
Results analysis
Victoria Rosport’s recent form had them coming off a draw, while FC Differdange 03 were on a four-game winning streak. The match finished 0-1 in favour of the visitors, confirming the model’s pick of an away win with a 44% probability. The model’s favourite was correct. The predicted total of 3.1 goals and the most likely 2-goal total proved far too high, as only one goal was scored. The suggested pick of Over 1.5, with an 83.1% probability, missed, as the game ended below that threshold. The final result matched the model’s prediction, but the goal count fell short of expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Rosport win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 win✓ Hit
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Rosport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.67
1.56
1.38
1.93
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
2.25
1.17
1.67
1.00
2.83
vs Similar (17)
2.00
1.29
1.80
1.20
2.29
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.20
2.27
0.80
2.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.43
2.57
vs Weaker (17)
3.00
0.59
3.11
0.44
2.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.3%
No
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
0-2
6.4%
0-0
5.4%
1-3
5.2%
Victoria Rosport goals ↓
FC Differdange 03 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.4%
6.4%
3.6%
1.6%
1
5.1%
12%
9.1%
5.2%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.5%
6.5%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.1%
3.6%
3.1%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Rosport goals (down), columns = FC Differdange 03 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Differdange 03
2.20
F91 Dudelange
2.03
Swift Hesperange
2.03
Progres Niederkorn
1.83
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.50
UNA Strassen
1.47
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.30
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.27
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.27
Wiltz
1.10
Mondercange
1.07
US Rumelange
1.00
US Hostert
1.00
Fola Esch
0.94
UN Kaerjeng 97
0.94
Marisca Mersch
0.87
Schifflange
0.83
Victoria Rosport is 0.73 points worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Differdange 03
2.33
Swift Hesperange
2.20
US Rumelange
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.97
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.83
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.70
Union Titus Petange
1.60
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.53
Victoria Rosport
1.50
Wiltz
1.43
UNA Strassen
1.33
Marisca Mersch
1.33
Schifflange
1.20
Fola Esch
1.13
Mondercange
1.10
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.03
US Hostert
1.00
Victoria Rosport is 0.83 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Differdange 03
0.77
US Hostert
1.00
Swift Hesperange
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.17
F91 Dudelange
1.20
UNA Strassen
1.27
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.37
Victoria Rosport
1.47
Union Titus Petange
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.61
Wiltz
1.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.77
Mondercange
1.90
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.93
Schifflange
1.97
US Rumelange
2.00
Fola Esch
2.03
Marisca Mersch
2.07
Victoria Rosport is 0.70 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.77).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Victoria Rosport
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Differdange 03
For 3.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 27.0 · Against 21.0 · Total 48.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Victoria Rosport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
10.0
9.0
11.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
48.0
-
48.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
10.0
9.0
11.0
1.7
1.8
1.5
48.0
-
48.0
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
9%
9%
9%
100%
-
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
91%
91%
91%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Progres Niederkorn
10.8
FC Differdange 03
10.0
F91 Dudelange
9.3
Swift Hesperange
8.6
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.5
Fola Esch
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
8.8
Progres Niederkorn
7.5
Fola Esch
7.0
Swift Hesperange
5.8
F91 Dudelange
5.1
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
48.0
Swift Hesperange
31.5
Progres Niederkorn
29.0
F91 Dudelange
17.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.81
0.56
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.53
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.33
0.67
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.29
1.22
0.33
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
0.75
0.81
1.00
1.14
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.25
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.76
1.00
0.70
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.77
1.40
0.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.38
0.67
0.67
0.57
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.82
0.29
1.89
0.11
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swift Hesperange
F91 Dudelange
Progres Niederkorn
AS Jeunesse Esch
UNA Strassen
Union Titus Petange
US Mondorf-les-bains
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Wiltz
Mondercange
UN Kaerjeng 97
Fola Esch
Marisca Mersch
Schifflange
US Rumelange
US Hostert