Victoria Rosport face FC Differdange 03 in a match the model deems most likely to end in an away win. The overall shape is a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% chance. Victoria Rosport, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while FC Differdange 03, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.17 scored and 0.33 conceded. The model assigns 18% to a home win, 23% to a draw and 58% to an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Over 2.5 cards (96.1%), Over 19.5 fouls (93.9%), Away +2 handicap (93.3%), Under 5.5 (91.6%) and Home under 2.5 goals (91.5%). Victoria Rosport’s recent form shows a draw after a 2-2 result, while FC Differdange 03 comes off a four-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Rosport win
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 win
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Rosport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.97
1.54
1.69
1.18
2.18
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.86
0.83
1.33
0.88
2.25
vs Similar (15)
1.73
2.00
2.14
2.00
1.38
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.80
2.00
0.71
1.92
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.15
1.00
0.83
1.71
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
0.53
2.55
0.64
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
10.0%
0-2
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.4%
0-0
6.0%
2-1
5.2%
Victoria Rosport goals ↓
FC Differdange 03 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
8.8%
9.7%
6.4%
3.2%
1
4.1%
11%
10.0%
6.6%
3.2%
2
2.6%
5.2%
5.1%
3.4%
1.7%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Rosport goals (down), columns = FC Differdange 03 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
UNA Strassen
3.00
US Mondorf-les-bains
3.00
FC Differdange 03
2.40
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.00
Résidence Walferdange
1.80
Atert Bissen
1.80
Progres Niederkorn
1.80
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
US Rumelange
1.20
F91 Dudelange
1.20
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
0.80
Wiltz
0.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.60
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.20
Swift Hesperange
0.00
Victoria Rosport is 1.60 points worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
2.60
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.40
Résidence Walferdange
2.20
US Hostert
2.20
FC Differdange 03
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.00
Wiltz
2.00
UNA Strassen
2.00
US Rumelange
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.40
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.00
Swift Hesperange
0.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
0.40
Victoria Rosport is 0.20 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UNA Strassen
0.20
Progres Niederkorn
0.80
FC Differdange 03
0.80
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.20
Résidence Walferdange
1.20
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.20
Atert Bissen
1.40
F91 Dudelange
1.60
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
2.00
US Hostert
2.00
Wiltz
2.20
Victoria Rosport
2.40
US Rumelange
2.40
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.60
Swift Hesperange
4.20
Victoria Rosport is 1.60 goals worse than FC Differdange 03 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Victoria Rosport
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Differdange 03
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Victoria Rosport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
11.5
8.0
0.6
0.9
0.4
25.0
23.0
26.0
vs Stronger (20)
8.0
9.0
7.0
0.9
1.1
0.8
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Similar (28)
11.5
14.0
9.0
0.4
0.8
0.2
29.0
-
29.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
6%
10%
3%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
94%
90%
97%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.5
28.5
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
26.0
26.0
-
vs Weaker (27)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
31.0
31.0
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
4%
7%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
96%
93%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Victoria Rosport
9.8
UN Kaerjeng 97
9.2
Progres Niederkorn
9.1
F91 Dudelange
8.9
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.8
FC Differdange 03
8.7
Atert Bissen
8.6
US Hostert
8.4
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
Swift Hesperange
7.9
UNA Strassen
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Differdange 03
7.7
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
7.0
Atert Bissen
6.6
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.6
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.2
Victoria Rosport
6.2
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
US Hostert
6.2
Swift Hesperange
6.2
Progres Niederkorn
6.1
F91 Dudelange
6.0
UNA Strassen
5.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
35.0
Swift Hesperange
30.4
AS Jeunesse Esch
29.0
US Hostert
29.0
UNA Strassen
28.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
Atert Bissen
26.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
23.6
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.2%
Under 9.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
89.8%
Under 3.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Victoria Rosport or Draw
41.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
58%
covers Victoria Rosport + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport or FC Differdange 03
76.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
58%
covers Victoria Rosport + FC Differdange 03
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Differdange 03
81.9%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
58%
covers Draw + FC Differdange 03
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 3.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Victoria Rosport, so a minus line means Victoria Rosport give that many goals of a start and FC Differdange 03 receive them. At -1, Victoria Rosport must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Victoria Rosport win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Victoria Rosport)
Victoria Rosport -2
1.9%
Draw -2
4.9%
FC Differdange 03 +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Victoria Rosport)
Victoria Rosport -1
6.8%
Draw -1
11.3%
FC Differdange 03 +1
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Victoria Rosport)
Victoria Rosport +1
41.5%
Draw +1
22.8%
FC Differdange 03 -1
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Victoria Rosport)
Victoria Rosport +2
64.3%
Draw +2
18.2%
FC Differdange 03 -2
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.85
0.69
0.29
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.79
0.50
0.17
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.00
1.14
1.14
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.71
0.12
1.15
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
0.33
0.00
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.18
0.91
0.18
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
0.69
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.07
0.33
1.17
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.00
1.00
0.86
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Differdange 03) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Differdange 03
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.29
0.59
0.77
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
0.67
0.83
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.35
1.64
0.45
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Differdange 03 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
EE (6)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (3)
€0m
UR (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
EE (2)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
EE (1)
€0m
UR (0)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and FC Differdange 03 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →