The contest between Victoria Rosport and UN Kaerjeng 97 is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 37% for Victoria, 30% for a draw and 33% for the visitors. The expected goal tally sits at 2.4, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable final score is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Victoria’s home form shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against teams of similar strength, while UN Kaerjeng’s away record is 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include a 97.6% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 93.6% probability of over 19.5 fouls, a 93.2% chance of over 3.5 cards, an 86.5% probability of over 21.5 fouls, an 85.2% chance of over 4.5 cards, an 84.3% probability of under 11.5 corners, a 77.5% chance of under 3.5 (goals), and a 75.7% probability of under 10.5 corners. The match is poised to be evenly matched, with Victoria slightly ahead in the statistical balance.
Results analysis
Victoria Rosport edged UN Kaerjeng 97 2-1, a result that keeps the home side’s recent form on a positive note after a draw. The model’s favourite was a home win at 37 percent, and that call proved correct. The expected total of 2.4 goals aligned closely with the 2-goal finish, and the most likely score of 1-1 (27 percent) was not the outcome, but the 1-0 and 0-0 possibilities were close. The model’s selections performed well: Over 2.5 cards hit at 97.6 percent, Over 3.5 cards at 93.2 percent, Over 4.5 cards at 85.2 percent, and Under 3.5 at 77.5 percent all succeeded, while Under 11.5 corners (84.3 percent) and Under 10.5 corners (75.7 percent) missed. The overall prediction framework delivered a solid performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Victoria Rosport win✓ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Victoria Rosport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
0.77
1.38
1.53
1.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.58
0.50
1.83
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.17
1.00
1.00
1.91
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.60
1.06
1.69
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.87
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.33
1.14
1.29
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.2%
1-0
9.9%
0-1
9.1%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
Victoria Rosport goals ↓
UN Kaerjeng 97 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.1%
6.0%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.9%
14%
7.6%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.2%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.9%
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Victoria Rosport goals (down), columns = UN Kaerjeng 97 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Atert Bissen
2.17
FC Differdange 03
2.17
US Mondorf-les-bains
2.00
F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.93
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.33
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.33
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.27
US Hostert
1.20
Victoria Rosport
1.17
Progres Niederkorn
1.13
Swift Hesperange
1.07
Jeunesse Canach
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Wiltz
1.00
Mamer
0.97
Rodange 91
0.83
Union Titus Petange
0.83
Victoria Rosport is 0.10 points worse than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atert Bissen
2.33
FC Differdange 03
2.10
F91 Dudelange
1.97
UNA Strassen
1.90
US Mondorf-les-bains
1.70
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.60
Progres Niederkorn
1.47
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.43
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Hostert
1.17
Victoria Rosport
1.10
Mamer
1.06
Swift Hesperange
1.03
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
Jeunesse Canach
0.97
Rodange 91
0.93
Union Titus Petange
0.87
Wiltz
0.00
Victoria Rosport is 0.33 goals worse than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wiltz
0.00
FC Differdange 03
0.73
US Mondorf-les-bains
0.80
UNA Strassen
0.87
Atert Bissen
0.90
Résidence Walferdange
1.00
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.13
F91 Dudelange
1.27
Jeunesse Canach
1.45
Swift Hesperange
1.53
Progres Niederkorn
1.57
UN Kaerjeng 97
1.60
Union Titus Petange
1.63
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.67
Victoria Rosport
1.67
US Hostert
1.87
Mamer
1.90
Rodange 91
2.17
Victoria Rosport is 0.07 goals worse than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
F91 Dudelange
61%
Progres Niederkorn
60%
UNA Strassen
57%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
56%
FC Differdange 03
54%
US Hostert
53%
Rodange 91
52%
US Mondorf-les-bains
52%
Atert Bissen
51%
Jeunesse Canach
49%
Swift Hesperange
48%
AS Jeunesse Esch
46%
Mamer
45%
Union Titus Petange
45%
UN Kaerjeng 97
41%
Victoria Rosport
40%
Victoria Rosport is 0.8 percentage points worse than UN Kaerjeng 97 in terms of average possession (40% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Victoria Rosport
For 0.3 · Against 8.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
UN Kaerjeng 97
For 3.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Victoria Rosport
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
9.0
8.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
25.0
23.0
26.0
vs Stronger (21)
8.0
9.0
7.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Similar (29)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
29.0
-
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
6.5
10.0
0.5
0.4
0.6
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Stronger (25)
7.7
6.5
10.0
0.7
0.8
0.6
27.0
26.5
28.0
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.2
0.0
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
0%
100%
6%
4%
9%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
67%
100%
0%
94%
96%
91%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
US Mondorf-les-bains
11.0
Mamer
10.3
Progres Niederkorn
9.9
Rodange 91
9.5
FC Differdange 03
9.2
F91 Dudelange
8.9
Jeunesse Canach
8.8
AS Jeunesse Esch
8.7
Victoria Rosport
8.3
Atert Bissen
8.2
US Hostert
8.2
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
8.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
7.7
Swift Hesperange
7.7
UNA Strassen
7.3
Union Titus Petange
5.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rodange 91
8.3
FC Differdange 03
8.0
Mamer
7.3
Atert Bissen
7.0
US Mondorf-les-bains
6.5
Swift Hesperange
6.3
AS Jeunesse Esch
6.2
UN Kaerjeng 97
6.0
US Hostert
6.0
Progres Niederkorn
5.9
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
5.8
Union Titus Petange
5.8
Victoria Rosport
5.5
Jeunesse Canach
5.5
F91 Dudelange
5.4
UNA Strassen
5.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC Differdange 03
37.0
Swift Hesperange
31.6
Jeunesse Canach
30.5
Mamer
30.3
Union Titus Petange
29.0
AS Jeunesse Esch
28.7
US Hostert
28.0
Atert Bissen
27.2
UNA Strassen
27.0
UN Kaerjeng 97
27.0
Rodange 91
27.0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
26.5
US Mondorf-les-bains
25.3
Victoria Rosport
25.0
Progres Niederkorn
24.5
F91 Dudelange
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.5%
Under 9.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
93.2%
Under 3.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.5%
Under 21.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.47
0.08
0.46
0.41
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
0.58
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.39
0.14
0.29
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.76
0.31
0.54
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.71
0.44
1.00
0.20
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Victoria Rosport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.69
0.92
1.12
0.82
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.83
0.83
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.78
0.86
0.71
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (UN Kaerjeng 97) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UN Kaerjeng 97
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.59
0.82
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.21
0.56
1.00
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Victoria Rosport) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Victoria Rosport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Victoria Rosport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UN Kaerjeng 97 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (19)
€3m
AB (19)
€3m
UK9 (18)
€2m
UM (22)
€2m
FD0 (16)
€2m
PN (19)
€2m
VR (15)
€2m
RFU (15)
€1m
AJE (17)
€1m
FD (16)
€1m
UH (16)
€1m
SH (12)
€1m
RW (3)
€0m
WIL (2)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UK9 (5)
€1m
FD0 (6)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
PN (8)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
AB (4)
€1m
UM (5)
€0m
UH (6)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
FD (6)
€0m
RW (1)
€0m
SH (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
US (5)
€1m
UM (6)
€1m
AB (5)
€1m
UK9 (5)
€0m
FD (4)
€0m
RFU (3)
€0m
VR (4)
€0m
UH (3)
€0m
FD0 (3)
€0m
AJE (4)
€0m
SH (3)
€0m
RW (0)
€0m
PN (0)
€0m
WIL (0)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AB (10)
€1m
US (9)
€1m
PN (11)
€1m
UM (11)
€1m
FD0 (7)
€1m
AJE (9)
€1m
UK9 (8)
€1m
VR (6)
€1m
RFU (6)
€1m
FD (6)
€0m
UH (7)
€0m
SH (7)
€0m
RW (2)
€0m
WIL (1)
€0m
Victoria Rosport and UN Kaerjeng 97 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Luxembourg: National Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Luxembourg: National Division stats & trends →