Victoria Rosport's recent form has been concerning, with three straight defeats, including a 0-4 loss to UNA Strassen. However, they will face US Mondorf-les-bains, who are coming off a win against FC Differdange 03. The model predicts an away win for US Mondorf-les-bains, with a 46% probability, making it the favourite match result. The expected total goals are 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%.
At home, Victoria Rosport has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.75, while US Mondorf-les-bains, away, has scored 1.22 goals and conceded 0.78 against weaker opponents. The model's selection for over 3.5 cards has a 97.5% probability, and under 21.5 fouls has an 82.4% probability. The model also suggests under 3.5 goals, with a 74.3% probability and an 8% edge. Other selections include over 1.5 goals, over 9.5 corners, and under 3.5 goals, with probabilities ranging from 71.5% to 73.8%. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 46%.
The win extends Victoria Rosport's recent form storyline, which has been marked by four consecutive defeats, followed by a narrow victory. However, this result was not expected by the Pythia prediction model, which forecasted a much lower goal tally. The actual score of 2-3 was well clear of the model's expected total of 2.6 goals.
The model's selection, an away win for US Mondorf-les-bains, was correct, with the team prevailing 2-3. The model assigned a 46% probability to an away win, making them the favourites. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.3% probability, missed, while the selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.8% probability, hit.
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.83 | 1.31 | 1.54 | 1.00 | 2.06 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.86 | 1.86 | 0.83 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.38 | 1.81 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.11 | 1.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 0.90 | 2.29 | 0.93 | 1.69 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.72 | 0.92 | 2.15 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 3.20 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| US Mondorf-les-bains goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.9% | 10% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 13% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Victoria Rosport
US Mondorf-les-bains
Victoria Rosport| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 25.0 | 23.0 | 26.0 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (28) | 11.5 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 29.0 | - | 29.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 25% | 50% | 0% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 75% | 50% | 100% | 94% | 90% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 25.3 | 28.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (42) | 11.5 | - | 11.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 0.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.47 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.48 | 1.08 | 0.46 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Victoria Rosport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.92 | 0.76 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.57 | 1.07 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
US Mondorf-les-bains| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.44 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 4.5 cards | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 74.3% | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | +7.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 16/02/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/08/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/11/22 | A | 1-6 |
Victoria Rosport| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-0 |
US Mondorf-les-bains| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 3 | FC Differdange 03 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Résidence Walferdange | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Atert Bissen | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | US Hostert | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 4.2 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.6 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | - |
| 11 | US Rumelange | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 4.0 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | - |
| 12 | Wiltz | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Victoria Rosport | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 14 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3.0 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | - |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 4.6 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2 | - |