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Viimsi vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 16/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Viimsi
Viimsi
Vs
50%
24%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Viimsi a 50% win probability against Elva in the Estonia: Esiliiga A on 2026-07-16, with 24% for the draw and 26% for Elva. The model estimates around 3.3 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (85%).

Results analysis

Viimsi finished 1-3 against Elva (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 50% home win, 24% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (85%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Viimsi winâś— Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva winâś“ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L41W20W40W12L21W40W01L02L22DA·NĂ•M27/09A·TAR03/10H·FLO16/10A·LUU23/10H·FCI27/10A·FC 02/11H·NĂ•M09/11H·KUR22/11A·KUR29/11H·NĂ•M11/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.170.732.270.732.070.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.830.832.331.001.330.67
vs Weaker (24)2.250.712.250.672.250.75
Clean sheet %47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D30W01L10W12L23L20W05L22D30WA·VII22/09A·TAL27/09H·NĂ•M04/10H·FC 19/10A·FCI23/10A·TAR27/10H·FLO02/11A·NĂ•M09/11A·NĂ•M05/07A·FC 11/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.601.471.471.931.73
vs Stronger (3)0.671.330.501.501.001.00
vs Similar (17)1.591.761.501.381.672.11
vs Weaker (10)2.201.401.801.602.601.20
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.9%
Under 3.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
No
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
4.7%
Viimsi goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
04.7%4.1%3.4%1.5%0.5%
16.2%11%6.6%3.0%1.0%
26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.5%6.1%4.1%1.9%0.6%
42.2%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viimsi goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.86
Maardu
1.71
Viimsi
1.67
Tartu Welco
1.50
FC Tallinn
1.33
Nõmme United II
1.14
Flora II
0.88
Nõmme Kalju II
0.25
Viimsi is 0.33 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.67
Viimsi
2.33
FCI Levadia II
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Maardu
1.86
Elva
1.86
Flora II
1.62
Nõmme United II
1.14
FC Tallinn
0.83
Nõmme Kalju II
0.62
Viimsi is 0.48 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
1.00
FC Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Viimsi
1.33
Nõmme United II
1.57
Tartu Welco
1.67
Flora II
1.75
FCI Levadia II
2.00
Maardu
2.14
Nõmme Kalju II
2.88
Viimsi is 0.33 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ViimsiViimsi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D20W02L11D20W00D00D22DA·NĂ•M27/09A·TAR03/10H·FLO16/10A·LUU23/10H·FCI27/10A·FC 02/11H·NĂ•M09/11H·KUR22/11A·KUR29/11H·NĂ•M11/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.331.070.470.870.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.670.500.670.670.670.33
vs Weaker (24)1.040.291.170.420.920.17
Clean sheet %73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D02L11D00D01L02L20WA·VII22/09A·TAL27/09H·NĂ•M04/10H·FC 19/10A·FCI23/10A·TAR27/10H·FLO02/11A·NĂ•M09/11A·NĂ•M05/07A·FC 11/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.530.600.870.87
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.760.880.500.751.001.00
vs Weaker (10)0.700.600.600.400.800.80
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 11. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (21)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Viimsi vs Elva · H/A from VII
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/25HVII Vs Elva1-1
19/07/25AElva Vs VII0-3
19/06/25AElva Vs VII1-0
01/03/25HVII Vs Elva3-3
10/11/24AElva Vs VII2-3
17/08/24HVII Vs Elva2-1
26/05/24AElva Vs VII0-2
14/04/24HVII Vs Elva1-1

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26HVII Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-2
29/11/25AKuressaare Vs VII2-0
22/11/25HVII Vs Kuressaare0-1
09/11/25HVII Vs Nõmme Kalju II4-0
02/11/25AFC Tallinn Vs VII1-2
27/10/25HVII Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
23/10/25ALuunja Vs VII0-4
16/10/25HVII Vs Flora II2-0
03/10/25ATartu Welco Vs VII1-4
27/09/25ANõmme United Vs VII1-0

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3
05/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs ELV2-2
09/11/25ANõmme United Vs ELV5-0
02/11/25HELV Vs Flora II2-0
27/10/25ATartu Welco Vs ELV3-2
23/10/25AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-1
19/10/25HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-0
04/10/25HELV Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-1
27/09/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs ELV0-3
22/09/25AViimsi Vs ELV1-1

đź“Š 13. Overall Statistics

Viimsi
Viimsi
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD2.00
HomeWLWLD2.20
AwayLWWWL1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%64%56%
AVG goals2.843.002.68
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %38%40%36%
Scored1.982.201.76
Conceded0.860.800.92
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet44%44%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.58
HomeLLLWW1.54
AwayLLLDW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%46%46%
AVG goals3.263.173.35
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %36%38%35%
Scored1.781.711.85
Conceded1.481.461.50
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet26%21%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva714
57%
2.0
137+6
2.9
71%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
2Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II713
57%
1.9
1514+1
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.0
-
4MaarduMaardu712
57%
1.7
1315-2
4.0
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.1
-
5ViimsiViimsi610
50%
1.7
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
6Tartu WelcoTartu Welco69
50%
1.5
1610+6
4.3
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.7
-
7FC TallinnFC Tallinn68
33%
1.3
56-1
1.8
67%
17%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
8Nõmme United IINõmme United II78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
100%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
9Flora IIFlora II87
25%
0.9
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II82
0%
0.2
523-18
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.9
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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