Viimsi’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over Tartu Welco set a confident tone for the home side, while Flora II returns from a 5-0 win at Tallinna Kalev, though their away form shows only 0.82 goals scored and 1.91 conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a 24% draw probability and a 25% chance of an away triumph. The expected total is 3.2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% probability. Viimsi averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Flora II averages 0.82 scored and 1.91 conceded away. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (89.2%), Under 5.5 (89.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Viimsi win
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.57
1.07
2.12
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.12
1.06
2.14
1.29
2.11
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
1.36
3.00
0.86
2.14
1.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
2.08
1.77
1.82
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.62
2.25
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (12)
3.08
0.92
2.80
1.00
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.1%
Viimsi goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
4.4%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.6%
11%
6.7%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.4%
5.9%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.8%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viimsi goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Viimsi is 0.33 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Viimsi is 0.48 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (2.30 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Viimsi is 0.04 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Viimsi or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Viimsi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi or Flora II
75.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Viimsi + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora II
50.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
25%
26%
covers Draw + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Viimsi over/under 0.5
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 3.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Viimsi, so a minus line means Viimsi give that many goals of a start and Flora II receive them. At -1, Viimsi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Viimsi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Viimsi)
Viimsi -2
13.0%
Draw -2
15.2%
Flora II +2
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Viimsi)
Viimsi -1
28.2%
Draw -1
20.9%
Flora II +1
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Viimsi)
Viimsi +1
73.7%
Draw +1
14.6%
Flora II -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Viimsi)
Viimsi +2
88.3%
Draw +2
7.7%
Flora II -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.86
0.50
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.64
1.14
0.43
0.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.17
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.67
1.71
0.57
1.31
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.62
1.57
0.71
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.71
1.86
0.43
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.00
1.08
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.06
0.88
1.25
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.75
1.20
0.80
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II