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Viimsi vs Nõmme Kalju II Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-2
Viimsi
Viimsi
Vs
63%
20%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Viimsi win✗ Miss
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L41W20W40W12L21W40W01L02LH·ELV22/09A·NÕM27/09A·TAR03/10H·FLO16/10A·LUU23/10H·FCI27/10A·FC 02/11H·NÕM09/11H·KUR22/11A·KUR29/11← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.170.672.270.602.070.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.770.691.831.001.710.43
vs Weaker (17)2.470.652.560.332.381.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W04L12L10W00D25L41W41W04L22DH·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.602.171.812.061.362.29
vs Stronger (10)1.202.601.402.601.002.60
vs Similar (17)1.412.181.672.111.122.25
vs Weaker (3)4.000.673.500.505.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.5%
3-0
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
2-2 ✓
5.5%
1-2
4.7%
Viimsi goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
01234
03.9%2.7%2.0%0.8%0.2%
16.3%9.0%4.7%1.8%0.5%
28.4%9.6%5.5%2.1%0.6%
36.5%7.5%4.3%1.6%0.5%
43.8%4.4%2.5%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viimsi goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
Viimsi
1.78
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.00
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Viimsi is 1.28 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.44
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.75
Viimsi is 1.54 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 0.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.25
Viimsi
1.33
Flora II
1.36
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Viimsi is 1.37 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ViimsiViimsi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W00D20W02L11D20W00D00DH·ELV22/09A·NÕM27/09A·TAR03/10H·FLO16/10A·LUU23/10H·FCI27/10A·FC 02/11H·NÕM09/11H·KUR22/11A·KUR29/11← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.271.070.330.870.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.460.670.670.710.29
vs Weaker (17)1.180.121.330.111.000.12
Clean sheet %77% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W00D00D22D20W30W02L20WH·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.810.810.860.57
vs Stronger (10)0.301.000.001.000.601.00
vs Similar (17)0.820.651.000.890.620.38
vs Weaker (3)2.670.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ViimsiViimsi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L21W20W20W10W10W20W01L02LH·ELV22/09A·NÕM27/09A·TAR03/10H·FLO16/10A·LUU23/10H·FCI27/10A·FC 02/11H·NÕM09/11H·KUR22/11A·KUR29/11← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.401.200.271.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.080.231.170.331.000.14
vs Weaker (17)1.290.531.220.221.380.88
Clean sheet %70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L02L10W00D03L21W11D02L02LH·FLO18/09H·NÕM22/09A·FC 27/09A·ELV04/10A·FCI20/10A·TAR23/10H·LUU26/10H·TAL01/11A·VII09/11H·ELV05/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.471.001.250.501.71
vs Stronger (10)0.901.601.401.600.401.60
vs Similar (17)0.591.530.671.220.501.88
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
VII wins
1
Draws
0
NKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Viimsi vs Nõmme Kalju II · H/A from VII
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HVII Vs Nõmme Kalju II4-0
04/08/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs VII2-2
25/05/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs VII2-4
29/03/25HVII Vs Nõmme Kalju II5-0

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25AKuressaare Vs VII2-0
22/11/25HVII Vs Kuressaare0-1
09/11/25HVII Vs Nõmme Kalju II4-0
02/11/25AFC Tallinn Vs VII1-2
27/10/25HVII Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
23/10/25ALuunja Vs VII0-4
16/10/25HVII Vs Flora II2-0
03/10/25ATartu Welco Vs VII1-4
27/09/25ANõmme United Vs VII1-0
22/09/25HVII Vs Elva1-1

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2
09/11/25AViimsi Vs NKI4-0
01/11/25HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev II4-1
26/10/25HNKI Vs Luunja4-1
23/10/25ATartu Welco Vs NKI5-2
20/10/25AFCI Levadia II Vs NKI0-0
04/10/25AElva Vs NKI0-1
27/09/25AFC Tallinn Vs NKI2-1
22/09/25HNKI Vs Nõmme United0-4
18/09/25HNKI Vs Flora II3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Viimsi
Viimsi
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL2.00
HomeDWLWL2.25
AwayLWWWL1.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%67%54%
AVG goals2.842.962.73
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.962.211.73
Conceded0.880.751.00
BTTS42%50%35%
Clean Sheet46%46%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD1.24
HomeWLWWD1.32
AwayLWDLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%37%33%
AVG goals3.763.843.67
Over 1.5 %86%89%83%
Over 2.5 %78%79%78%
Over 3.5 %51%58%44%
Scored1.571.741.39
Conceded2.192.112.28
BTTS57%58%56%
Clean Sheet19%16%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi916
56%
1.8
2212+10
3.8
100%
100%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.3
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn88
25%
1.0
610-4
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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