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Viimsi vs Tartu Welco Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Viimsi
Viimsi
Vs
41%
23%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Viimsi’s recent win over Nõmme United II fuels optimism, while Tartu Welco’s three-game winning streak suggests they will not be easily contained. The model predicts a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.8 goals expected. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.7 % chance. Home advantage is clear: Viimsi averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Tartu Welco scores 2.5 and concedes 1.7 on the road. The model favours a home win, with probabilities of 43 % for a Viimsi victory, 23 % for a draw, and 34 % for a Tartu Welco win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (95.8 %), Under 6.5 (90.6 %), Over 1.5 (90.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.1 %), Home over 0.5 goals (87.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (85.0 %), Away over 0.5 goals (83.5 %), and Home +2 handicap (82.1 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Viimsi win
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W30W12L21W41W50W12L41W31W12LH·NOM23/07A·NÕM27/07H·TAL03/08A·MAA08/08A·HEL12/08H·FCI15/08A·FLO21/08H·NÕM24/08A·TAR29/08H·FC 03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.202.571.072.121.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.121.062.141.292.110.89
vs Weaker (14)2.571.363.000.862.141.86
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-881W02L15L12L12L80W21W42W42W13LA·MAA13/07H·FC 18/07A·RUM23/07A·NÕM01/08A·ELV08/08A·KOS12/08H·FLO15/08H·FCI20/08A·NÕM23/08H·VII29/08
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.631.702.431.642.811.75
vs Stronger (1)1.005.00--1.005.00
vs Similar (20)2.601.652.271.733.001.56
vs Weaker (9)2.891.443.001.332.831.50
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.2%
Under 1.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
73.3%
No
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
7.3%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
4.8%
1-3
4.6%
2-3
4.5%
Viimsi goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
03.0%3.3%3.8%2.3%1.1%
13.5%8.8%7.4%4.6%2.1%
24.3%7.9%7.3%4.5%2.1%
32.8%5.2%4.8%2.9%1.4%
41.4%2.5%2.4%1.4%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viimsi goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Viimsi is 0.10 points better than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Viimsi is 0.33 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (2.30 vs 2.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Viimsi is 0.48 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Viimsi or Draw
63.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
23%
36%
covers Viimsi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi or Tartu Welco
77.2%
Avg Implied -
41%
23%
36%
covers Viimsi + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tartu Welco
59.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
23%
36%
covers Draw + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Viimsi over/under 0.5
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5
Over
58.6%
Under
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 3.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Viimsi, so a minus line means Viimsi give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, Viimsi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Viimsi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Viimsi)
Viimsi -2
10.6%
Draw -2
12.5%
Tartu Welco +2
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Viimsi)
Viimsi -1
23.1%
Draw -1
17.9%
Tartu Welco +1
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Viimsi)
Viimsi +1
63.8%
Draw +1
16.8%
Tartu Welco -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Viimsi)
Viimsi +2
80.6%
Draw +2
11.0%
Tartu Welco -2
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ViimsiViimsi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D11D10W20W00D00D20W10WH·NOM23/07A·NÕM27/07H·TAL03/08A·MAA08/08A·HEL12/08H·FCI15/08A·FLO21/08H·NÕM24/08A·TAR29/08H·FC 03/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.860.500.810.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.440.570.571.000.33
vs Weaker (14)0.860.641.140.430.570.86
Clean sheet %70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W02L13L10W02L40W10W21W12L02LA·MAA13/07H·FC 18/07A·RUM23/07A·NÕM01/08A·ELV08/08A·KOS12/08H·FLO15/08H·FCI20/08A·NÕM23/08H·VII29/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.071.001.001.311.12
vs Stronger (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
vs Similar (20)1.251.101.001.001.561.22
vs Weaker (9)1.000.781.001.001.000.67
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ViimsiViimsi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W30W01L10W31W30W12L41W11D02LH·NOM23/07A·NÕM27/07H·TAL03/08A·MAA08/08A·HEL12/08H·FCI15/08A·FLO21/08H·NÕM24/08A·TAR29/08H·FC 03/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.671.710.571.310.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.310.621.570.711.110.56
vs Weaker (14)1.710.711.860.431.571.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W00D02L02L10W40W11D21W30W11DA·MAA13/07H·FC 18/07A·RUM23/07A·NÕM01/08A·ELV08/08A·KOS12/08H·FLO15/08H·FCI20/08A·NÕM23/08H·VII29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.631.430.641.500.62
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (20)1.350.551.270.731.440.33
vs Weaker (9)1.890.672.000.331.830.83
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.595.9%-------
Under 6.590.8%-------
Over 1.590.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals88.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals84.2%-------
Under 5.581.3%-------
Home +2 handicap80.6%-------
Home or Away77.2%-------
Away +2 handicap76.9%-------
Over 2.573.4%-------
BTTS Yes73.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals71.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
VII wins
1
Draws
2
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Viimsi vs Tartu Welco · H/A from VII
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ATartu Welco Vs VII1-3
03/10/25ATartu Welco Vs VII1-4
18/08/25HVII Vs Tartu Welco3-2
23/07/25HVII Vs Tartu Welco2-1
26/04/25ATartu Welco Vs VII3-1
27/10/24HVII Vs Tartu Welco1-1
10/08/24ATartu Welco Vs VII1-3
13/07/24HVII Vs Tartu Welco2-4

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HVII Vs FC Tallinn1-2
29/08/26ATartu Welco Vs VII1-3
24/08/26HVII Vs Nõmme United II4-1
21/08/26AFlora II Vs VII2-1
15/08/26HVII Vs FCI Levadia II5-0
12/08/26AHelios Vs VII1-4
08/08/26AMaardu Vs VII1-2
03/08/26HVII Vs Tallinna Kalev1-2
27/07/26ANõmme United II Vs VII0-3
23/07/26HVII Vs Nomme Utd U194-0

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HTW Vs Viimsi1-3
23/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs TW2-4
20/08/26HTW Vs FCI Levadia II4-2
15/08/26HTW Vs Flora II2-1
12/08/26AKose Vs TW0-8
08/08/26AElva Vs TW2-1
01/08/26ANõmme United II Vs TW2-1
23/07/26ARumori Calcio II Vs TW5-1
18/07/26HTW Vs FC Tallinn0-2
13/07/26AMaardu Vs TW1-8

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Viimsi
Viimsi
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.92
HomeWLWWL2.00
AwayWWWLW1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%62%58%
AVG goals3.423.583.25
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %68%69%67%
Over 3.5 %46%50%42%
Scored2.262.462.04
Conceded1.161.121.21
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.74
HomeWLWWL1.79
AwayLLLWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals4.264.294.23
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %78%75%81%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.742.832.65
Conceded1.521.461.58
BTTS68%62%73%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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