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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2026
Time: 20:00
Final 5-1
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vs
56%
22%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 56% win probability against Keflavik in the Iceland: Úrvalsdeild on 2026-07-24, with 22% for the draw and 22% for Keflavik. The model estimates around 3.5 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (9.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (87%).

Results analysis

Vikingur Reykjavik finished 5-1 against Keflavik (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 56% home win, 22% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (87%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vikingur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
55.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Keflavik win✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-741W22D70W21W32W20W21W20W12L21WH·VES26/08H·BRE31/08A·KR 14/09H·FRA21/09A·STJ29/09H·FH 05/10A·BRE18/10H·VAL25/10A·THO18/07H·HAP21/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.272.801.201.731.33
vs Stronger (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (2)1.502.003.000.000.004.00
vs Weaker (27)2.331.222.851.311.861.14
Clean sheet %33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Keflavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-772W24L21W41W12L30W40W11D12L52WH·VÖL23/08A·IR 29/08H·NJA06/09A·SEL13/09H·NJA17/09A·NJA21/09H·HK 27/09H·FRA06/07A·BRE13/07H·IA 20/07
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.672.531.472.081.92
vs Stronger (3)3.002.335.004.002.001.50
vs Similar (25)2.121.722.131.402.102.20
vs Weaker (2)4.000.006.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.0%
No
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
3-0
5.1%
Vikingur Reykjavik goals ↓
Keflavik goals →
01234
03.9%3.2%2.7%1.2%0.4%
15.7%9.6%5.8%2.6%0.9%
27.1%9.5%6.3%2.8%0.9%
35.1%6.8%4.5%2.0%0.7%
42.8%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Keflavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.20
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
IA Akranes
1.67
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.60
FH hafnarfjordur
1.50
Keflavik
1.43
Breidablik
1.33
Stjarnan
1.20
Thor Akureyri
1.17
KA Akureyri
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.33
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.17 points better than Keflavik in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.80
IA Akranes
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
2.20
Keflavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.50
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.33
Stjarnan
1.20
Breidablik
1.17
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.67
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.94 goals better than Keflavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.83
Breidablik
1.33
Fram Reykjavik
1.57
Keflavik
1.57
KR Reykjavik
1.60
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.83
KA Akureyri
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.60
Stjarnan
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.23 goals worse than Keflavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (23)
€5m
KA (43)
€4m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (18)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
VR (7)
€2m
KA (16)
€2m
BRE (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (5)
€1m
BRE (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (9)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
KA (18)
€1m
VR (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik · H/A from VR
DateH/AGameScore
08/07/23AKeflavik Vs VR3-3
04/05/23HVR Vs Keflavik4-1
11/09/22AKeflavik Vs VR0-3
28/04/22HVR Vs Keflavik4-1

Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/26HVR Vs Hapoel Beer Sheva2-1
18/07/26AThor Akureyri Vs VR2-1
25/10/25HVR Vs Valur Reykjavik2-0
18/10/25ABreidablik Vs VR1-2
05/10/25HVR Vs FH hafnarfjordur2-0
29/09/25AStjarnan Vs VR2-3
21/09/25HVR Vs Fram Reykjavik2-1
14/09/25AKR Reykjavik Vs VR0-7
31/08/25HVR Vs Breidablik2-2
26/08/25HVR Vs Vestri4-1

KeflavikKeflavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26HKEF Vs IA Akranes5-2
13/07/26ABreidablik Vs KEF2-1
06/07/26HKEF Vs Fram Reykjavik1-1
27/09/25HKEF Vs HK Kopavogur4-0
21/09/25ANjardvik Vs KEF0-3
17/09/25HKEF Vs Njardvik1-2
13/09/25ASelfoss Vs KEF1-4
06/09/25HKEF Vs Njardvik2-1
29/08/25AIR Reykjavik Vs KEF4-2
23/08/25HKEF Vs Völsungur7-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.98
HomeDWWWW2.36
AwayWWWWL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%76%44%
AVG goals3.423.723.12
Over 1.5 %88%100%76%
Over 2.5 %72%84%60%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored2.162.561.76
Conceded1.261.161.36
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet34%32%36%
Corners8.107.408.80
Cards4.704.205.20
Keflavik
Keflavik
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.70
HomeWLWDW1.96
AwayLLWWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals3.583.883.25
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %70%73%67%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.142.581.67
Conceded1.441.311.58
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Fram ReykjavikFram Reykjavik714
57%
2.0
1711+6
4.0
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.6
-
2KR ReykjavikKR Reykjavik511
60%
2.2
198+11
5.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.81.6
-
3IA AkranesIA Akranes610
50%
1.7
1612+4
4.7
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.72.0
-
4KeflavikKeflavik710
43%
1.4
1311+2
3.4
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
5FH hafnarfjordurFH hafnarfjordur69
33%
1.5
65+1
1.8
50%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6Vikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik58
40%
1.6
149+5
4.6
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.8
-
7BreidablikBreidablik68
33%
1.3
78-1
2.5
50%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
8Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri67
33%
1.2
411-7
2.5
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
9KA AkureyriKA Akureyri66
17%
1.0
912-3
3.5
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.52.0
-
10StjarnanStjarnan56
40%
1.2
615-9
4.2
80%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
11Valur ReykjavikValur Reykjavik54
20%
0.8
1113-2
4.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2112.22.6
-
12IBV VestmannaeyjarIBV Vestmannaeyjar62
0%
0.3
815-7
3.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →

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