Vikingur Reykjavik are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 66% chance to a home win, 18% to a draw and 17% to a KR Reykjavik victory. The 66% home win probability reflects Vikingur’s strong home form - they average 3.67 goals scored and only 1.22 conceded at home against weaker opposition - versus KR’s weaker away record, where they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger opponents. The expected total of 4.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the model’s most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Vikingur, with an 8.4% chance. The predicted total of 6+ goals carries a 24% probability. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 92.5%, Over 2.5 at 78.3%, and BTTS Yes at 71.0%. Both sides have been unbeaten in their last five, with recent draws against each other, but Vikingur’s home advantage and higher scoring rate give them the edge.
Results analysis
The draw stunned the pre-match favourite, Vikingur Reykjavik, who had been tipped to win with a 66% probability. The match finished 1-1, a result that left the model’s pick wrong. Vikingur’s home form had been a shaky DLWLW, ending on a draw, while KR Reykjavik were unbeaten in their last five away games. The model’s selections proved mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit, hitting the 92.5% probability, while Over 2.5 missed at 78.3%, and BTTS Yes also hit with 71%. The final score of 1-1 confirmed a draw, contrary to the model’s expectation of a Vikingur victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vikingur Reykjavik win✗ Miss
65.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
1.27
3.62
1.25
2.29
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.83
1.50
3.57
1.29
1.80
1.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.11
1.11
3.67
1.22
2.56
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
2.17
1.79
2.00
2.62
2.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
2.29
2.18
1.85
2.00
2.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.5%
Under 1.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
78.3%
Under 2.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.0%
No
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%
3-1
7.7%
1-1 ✓
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
3-2
5.4%
4-1
5.3%
Vikingur Reykjavik goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
1
3.7%
6.7%
4.2%
2.0%
0.7%
2
6.0%
8.4%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.5%
7.7%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
4
3.8%
5.3%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Breidablik
2.30
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.19
Valur Reykjavik
1.63
Stjarnan
1.56
KA Akureyri
1.37
IA Akranes
1.37
FH hafnarfjordur
1.26
KR Reykjavik
1.26
Fram Reykjavik
1.11
HK Kopavogur
0.93
Vestri
0.93
Fylkir
0.78
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.93 points better than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.52
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Breidablik
2.33
KR Reykjavik
2.07
Stjarnan
1.89
IA Akranes
1.81
KA Akureyri
1.63
FH hafnarfjordur
1.59
Fram Reykjavik
1.41
HK Kopavogur
1.26
Fylkir
1.19
Vestri
1.19
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.44 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.52 vs 2.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Breidablik
1.15
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.22
Valur Reykjavik
1.56
Stjarnan
1.59
IA Akranes
1.74
KA Akureyri
1.78
Fram Reykjavik
1.81
KR Reykjavik
1.81
FH hafnarfjordur
1.85
Vestri
1.96
Fylkir
2.22
HK Kopavogur
2.63
Vikingur Reykjavik is 0.59 goals better than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.57
1.69
0.56
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.75
1.57
0.71
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.44
1.78
0.44
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.79
1.00
1.00
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.96
0.89
0.85
1.00
1.07
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.70
1.94
0.69
1.36
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.75
2.00
0.57
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
0.67
1.89
0.78
1.44
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.69
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.36
1.18
1.00
1.00
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vikingur Reykjavik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ari Sigurpálsson38%
Gunnar Vatnhamar25%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Davíð Örn Atlason12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikolaj Hansen57%
Davíð Örn Atlason38%
Tarik Ibrahimagić38%
Oliver Ekroth29%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Aron Elís Þrándarson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Ari Sigurpálsson12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erlingur Agnarsson33%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Nikolaj Hansen0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Vikingur Reykjavik's squad is €3m more valuable than KR Reykjavik's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
Vikingur Reykjavik's attack is €2m more valuable than KR Reykjavik's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Vikingur Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Vikingur Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Breidablik
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
IA Akranes
KA Akureyri
FH hafnarfjordur
Fram Reykjavik
Vestri
HK Kopavogur
Fylkir