Viktoria Žižkov are the clear favourites, with a 65 % chance of victory, 19 % for a draw and 16 % for a Třinec win, the model picking a home win. The Czech-Republic FNL side’s recent form shows a 0-3 loss to Karviná after two straight defeats, yet the model still rates them highly, citing their home scoring and conceding figures against a stronger opponent. Třinec, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, a weaker profile that the model weighs heavily.
The expected total is 3.7 goals, with the most likely total number of goals being three at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Viktoria Žižkov, a 9.4 % chance. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Under 7.5 (96.7 %), Home +2 handicap (93.7 %), Under 6.5 (92.2 %), Home over 0.5 goals (91.6 %), Over 1.5 (88.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.3 %) and Home or Draw (84.2 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Viktoria Žižkov win
64.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Třinec win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Viktoria Žižkov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.07
1.31
1.85
1.06
2.24
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
2.25
1.33
3.33
1.60
1.60
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.95
1.30
1.40
0.91
2.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Třinec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.60
1.23
1.77
1.59
1.47
vs Stronger (29)
1.24
1.66
1.23
1.77
1.25
1.56
vs Similar (1)
7.00
0.00
-
-
7.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoria Žižkov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.7%
3-0
6.5%
1-0
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
4-1
4.8%
Viktoria Žižkov goals ↓
Třinec goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.6%
8.3%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
2
7.9%
9.4%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.5%
7.7%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
4
4.0%
4.8%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Viktoria Žižkov goals (down), columns = Třinec goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov is 0.17 points worse than Třinec in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov is 0.50 goals worse than Třinec in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Viktoria Žižkov is 0.83 goals worse than Třinec in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Viktoria Žižkov or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Viktoria Žižkov + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov or Třinec
80.7%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Viktoria Žižkov + Třinec
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Třinec
35.2%
Avg Implied -
65%
19%
16%
covers Draw + Třinec
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 0.5
Over
91.6%
Under
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 1.5
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 2.5
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 3.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Viktoria Žižkov, so a minus line means Viktoria Žižkov give that many goals of a start and Třinec receive them. At -1, Viktoria Žižkov must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Viktoria Žižkov win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Viktoria Žižkov)
Viktoria Žižkov -2
25.0%
Draw -2
19.0%
Třinec +2
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Viktoria Žižkov)
Viktoria Žižkov -1
44.0%
Draw -1
20.8%
Třinec +1
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Viktoria Žižkov)
Viktoria Žižkov +1
84.2%
Draw +1
9.6%
Třinec -1
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Viktoria Žižkov)
Viktoria Žižkov +2
93.7%
Draw +2
4.4%
Třinec -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Viktoria Žižkov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.46
1.15
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.33
2.33
0.80
0.40
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.86
0.50
0.80
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Třinec
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.31
0.92
0.82
0.59
vs Stronger (29)
0.52
0.76
0.31
0.92
0.69
0.62
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoria Žižkov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Viktoria Žižkov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.85
0.69
0.47
1.41
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.12
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
1.10
0.80
0.60
0.36
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Třinec) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Třinec
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.92
0.85
0.76
0.88
vs Stronger (29)
0.72
0.90
0.92
0.85
0.56
0.94
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoria Žižkov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoria Žižkov over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Třinec over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Viktoria Žižkov's squad is €2m more valuable than Třinec's (€3m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Viktoria Žižkov and Třinec have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Viktoria Žižkov's midfield is €1m more valuable than Třinec's (€1m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Viktoria Žižkov and Třinec have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
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Ústí nad Labem
Slavia Praha II
Karviná
Příbram
Táborsko
Dukla Praha
Kladno
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Baník Ostrava II
Vysočina Jihlava
Vlašim
Opava
Prostějov
Hanácká