This opponent (Maritimo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.83
1.44
0.75
1.50
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
0.96
1.17
0.83
1.45
1.09
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
0-1
11.4%
0-2 ✓
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
5.9%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
Vilaverdense goals ↓
Maritimo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
11%
10%
5.7%
2.4%
1
5.9%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.2%
5.4%
4.4%
2.4%
1.0%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vilaverdense goals (down), columns = Maritimo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Vilaverdense is 1.06 points worse than Maritimo in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Vilaverdense is 0.65 goals worse than Maritimo in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Vilaverdense is 0.88 goals worse than Maritimo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Vilaverdense is 4.5 percentage points worse than Maritimo in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vilaverdense
For 5.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 16.5 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
For 6.2 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilaverdense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
10.8
11.3
10.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
28.9
28.9
29.0
vs Stronger (18)
11.2
12.4
10.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
28.5
29.8
27.6
vs Similar (13)
10.2
10.2
10.3
2.9
2.9
3.0
29.6
28.0
32.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
80%
70%
52%
53%
50%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
25%
20%
30%
48%
47%
50%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
3.0
3.3
2.7
28.1
27.7
28.6
vs Stronger (10)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.4
3.5
3.2
27.8
29.5
26.0
vs Similar (37)
9.6
10.1
9.0
2.8
3.0
2.7
28.1
26.9
29.2
vs Weaker (3)
8.5
8.5
-
3.3
5.0
0.0
29.5
29.5
-
% over line
54%
54%
55%
48%
50%
46%
83%
85%
82%
% under line
46%
46%
45%
52%
50%
54%
17%
15%
18%
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.2
AVS
11.6
Oliveirense
11.2
Feirense
11.0
Vilaverdense
10.8
Tondela
10.8
Academico Viseu
10.7
FC Porto B
10.7
Leixoes
10.4
Benfica B
10.4
Penafiel
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Mafra
10.3
Pacos Ferreira
10.0
Torreense
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Santa Clara
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.3
Maritimo
6.1
Oliveirense
6.1
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Tondela
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Nacional
5.6
Benfica B
5.6
FC Porto B
5.5
AVS
5.4
Penafiel
5.2
Torreense
5.1
Academico Viseu
5.1
Feirense
5.0
União de Leiria
5.0
Mafra
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.6
Maritimo
30.4
Oliveirense
29.9
Penafiel
29.8
Leixoes
29.7
Santa Clara
29.6
Vilaverdense
28.9
Tondela
28.5
Nacional
27.9
Torreense
27.6
AVS
27.2
Feirense
26.9
Benfica B
26.7
União de Leiria
26.1
Academico Viseu
25.9
Mafra
25.8
FC Porto B
25.6
CF Os Belenenses
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.3%
Under 3.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
90.0%
Under 21.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vilaverdense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.80
0.21
0.86
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.06
0.25
1.25
0.20
0.90
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.42
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.52
0.58
0.42
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vilaverdense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.79
0.93
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
1.28
0.62
1.12
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.43
0.58
0.42
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Santa Clara
Nacional
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa