This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.13
1.07
1.13
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
1.33
1.67
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.04
1.00
1.00
0.82
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
Under 2.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
11.8%
1-0
11.2%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
7.1%
2-1 ✓
6.9%
2-0
6.4%
Vilaverdense goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
6.4%
6.9%
3.7%
1.3%
0.4%
3
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vilaverdense goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Vilaverdense is 0.32 points worse than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Vilaverdense is 0.03 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Vilaverdense is 0.59 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Vilaverdense is 4.6 percentage points better than Penafiel in terms of average possession (47% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vilaverdense
For 5.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 16.4 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 4.2 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilaverdense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
10.8
11.2
10.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
28.5
28.1
29.0
vs Stronger (20)
11.1
12.0
10.3
3.5
3.7
3.2
27.8
28.2
27.6
vs Similar (14)
10.2
10.2
10.3
3.1
2.9
3.3
29.6
28.0
32.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
76%
82%
70%
56%
59%
53%
90%
91%
90%
% under line
24%
18%
30%
44%
41%
47%
10%
9%
10%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.5
10.0
5.3
5.2
5.4
29.7
30.1
29.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.0
10.6
7.7
5.5
4.8
6.2
29.5
29.6
29.5
vs Similar (39)
10.6
10.5
10.8
5.2
5.2
5.1
29.7
30.3
29.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
54%
48%
80%
80%
80%
91%
88%
96%
% under line
49%
46%
52%
20%
20%
20%
9%
12%
4%
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.3
AVS
11.6
Feirense
11.0
Oliveirense
11.0
Vilaverdense
10.8
Tondela
10.8
FC Porto B
10.6
Benfica B
10.5
Leixoes
10.4
Mafra
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.3
Penafiel
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.0
Torreense
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Santa Clara
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.2
Maritimo
6.0
Oliveirense
5.9
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Leixoes
5.7
AVS
5.5
Tondela
5.5
Nacional
5.4
Benfica B
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
FC Porto B
5.3
União de Leiria
5.2
Academico Viseu
5.0
Feirense
5.0
Torreense
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.9
Mafra
4.8
CF Os Belenenses
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.7
Leixoes
29.7
Maritimo
29.7
Santa Clara
29.6
Oliveirense
29.6
Penafiel
29.6
Vilaverdense
28.5
Tondela
28.4
Nacional
27.7
AVS
27.5
Torreense
27.2
Benfica B
26.7
Feirense
26.4
União de Leiria
26.1
FC Porto B
25.5
Mafra
25.5
Academico Viseu
25.4
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.9%
Under 3.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
89.2%
Under 21.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vilaverdense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.87
0.20
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.11
0.20
1.20
0.22
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.45
0.20
0.20
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.40
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.42
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vilaverdense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
1.21
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.44
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.45
1.00
0.60
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.58
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Santa Clara
Nacional
Maritimo
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa