Villarreal vs Alaves Result & Analysis

Villarreal return to the Camp Nou after a narrow 0-1 loss to Alaves, while the Galo’s visitors come off a win against the same opponents. The model sees a 61% chance of a home win, 20% for a draw and 19% for an away victory, making a Villarreal triumph the clear favourite. The expected goal total is 3.7, with a 21% probability that exactly three goals will be scored. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the hosts, with a 9.3% chance. Villarreal’s home form against weaker teams shows they average 2.17 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, whereas Alaves, playing away against stronger opposition, manage just 0.8 goals and concede 2.2. The model’s selections include an 89.7% chance of over 2.5 cards, 89.0% for over 19.5 fouls, 88.9% for over 1.5 goals, 80.8% for under 11.5 corners, 78.8% for over 21.5 fouls, 77.2% for over 3.5 cards, 71.2% for under 10.5 corners and 71.0% for over 2.5 goals, the last offering a 16% edge.

Villarreal’s recent form, still rattled by a defeat, was enough to carry the home side to a 3-0 win over Alaves, who were coming off a victory. The model’s favourite, a home win at 61 percent, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 3-0 outcome. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 2.5 cards hit at 89.7 percent, Over 19.5 fouls at 89.0 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 88.9 percent, Under 11.5 corners at 80.8 percent, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.8 percent, Over 3.5 cards at 77.2 percent, Under 10.5 corners at 71.2 percent, and Over 2.5 goals at 71.0 percent, each achieving a hit. The predictions were largely accurate, confirming the model’s confidence.