Villarreal vs Valencia Result & Analysis

The model favours a Villarreal victory, with a 59% chance of a home win, 25% for a draw and 16% for a Valencia win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Villarreal’s home form shows they average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Valencia’s away record is 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 19.5 fouls 97.1%, Over 21.5 fouls 93.1%, Over 2.5 cards 90.3%, Over 23.5 fouls 85.9%, Over 3.5 cards 78.3%, Over 1.5 76.0%, Over 25.5 fouls 75.4% and Under 11.5 corners 73.9%. The home side’s recent form is a losing streak, while Valencia is coming off two defeats. The match is expected to be a tight affair, with Villarreal’s defensive solidity giving them a slight edge.

The upset came early as Valencia overturned a 0-1 loss to Alaves, extending their run of two straight defeats into a win. The final score was 0-2, an away victory that contradicted the model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 59%. The model’s call was wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.1%; Over 21.5 fouls hit at 93.1%; Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.3%; Over 23.5 fouls hit at 85.9%; Over 3.5 cards hit at 78.3%; Over 1.5 hit at 76.0%; Over 25.5 fouls hit at 75.4%; Under 11.5 corners hit at 73.9%. The match delivered on the model’s predictions for fouls, cards and corners, but not on the outcome.