Virtus are the clear favourite, the model rating them at 85% for a home win, a figure that reflects their strong home form and the fact that they face an opponent that is weaker at home. The expected total goals are 3.2, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, which carries a 15.1% chance. Virtus average 2.91 goals scored and concede only 0.55 at home against weaker sides, while Murata, playing away against a stronger team, average 0.86 goals scored and 2.86 conceded. The home win percentage is 85%, the draw 12%, and the away win 3%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.9%), Home +2 handicap (99.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.8%), Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home or Draw (96.5%), Home +1 handicap (96.5%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), and Home over 0.5 goals (93.8%). The recent form shows Virtus coming off a draw, while Murata has lost five straight matches, reinforcing the model’s confidence in a decisive home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Virtus win
84.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata win
3.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Virtus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.73
2.40
0.53
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
2.86
0.62
2.91
0.55
2.80
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.83
0.36
2.93
1.00
2.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
2.85
0.00
2.83
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (17)
0.88
2.82
0.62
3.00
1.11
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-36pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.6%
No
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.1%
3-0
13.9%
1-0
10.5%
4-0
9.5%
2-1
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
1-1
5.7%
5-0
5.3%
Virtus goals ↓
Murata goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
10%
5.7%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
2
15%
7.1%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
3
14%
6.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
4
9.5%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Virtus goals (down), columns = Murata goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Virtus and Murata are level in average points per game (both 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Virtus is 0.25 goals better than Murata in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Virtus is 0.75 goals better than Murata in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Virtus or Draw
96.4%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Virtus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Virtus or Murata
87.9%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Virtus + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Murata
15.7%
Avg Implied -
84%
12%
4%
covers Draw + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Virtus over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 3.5
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Virtus, so a minus line means Virtus give that many goals of a start and Murata receive them. At -1, Virtus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Virtus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Virtus)
Virtus -2
42.2%
Draw -2
22.8%
Murata +2
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Virtus)
Virtus -1
65.0%
Draw -1
19.3%
Murata +1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Virtus)
Virtus +1
96.4%
Draw +1
2.9%
Murata -1
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Virtus)
Virtus +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Murata -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Virtus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.13
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.24
0.24
1.45
0.09
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.40
0.21
1.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.38
0.00
1.33
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.29
1.41
0.38
1.88
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Virtus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Virtus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.30
1.20
0.40
1.27
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.11
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
0.38
1.45
0.45
1.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.43
0.14
1.29
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.00
1.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.41
0.25
1.12
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Virtus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Virtus and Murata have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Virtus and Murata have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Virtus and Murata have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Virtus and Murata have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano