In the Netherlands: Eerste Divisie, Vitesse hosts Almere City FC on August 21. Recent form suggests a high-scoring affair, with both teams coming off draws and last meeting ending 1-1. The expected total goals stand at 3.5, indicating a high-scoring match, with the most likely total goals being 3.
Vitesse's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.77 goals per game, while Almere City FC's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.93 and 2.14 goals per game respectively, suggesting a closely contested match. The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Vitesse taking the three points, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 38% chance of Almere City FC winning away.
The model's selection is a Home win, and the most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 10.3%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 87.2%, and Over 21.5 fouls with a probability of 70.1%.
Vitesse has a 38% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 38% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks are: Home win (38%), Draw (24%), Away win (38%), Over 1.5 (87.2%), and Over 21.5 fouls (70.1%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Almere City FC overturned the pre-match favourite, winning 3-0. The model had tipped a home win with a 38 % probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-3 matched the away victory. The model’s other selections all hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 %, Under 7.5 at 97.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8 %, Under 6.5 at 93.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 90.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 89.9 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 88.3 %, and Over 1.5 at 87.1 %. Almere’s two-game winning run continued, while Vitesse’s recent form dipped after a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vitesse win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.12
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.67
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.85
Dafabet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.70
Almere City FC win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.98
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.15
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.03
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.30
1.67
1.47
1.47
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
1.42
1.54
1.62
1.46
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.63
2.07
1.33
2.07
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
2.03
1.62
2.00
1.29
2.07
1.93
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
@ 1.12+3.5%
Under 1.5
12.9%
@ 5.68-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.24
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.44+2.7%
Under 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.64-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.81
BetVictor
2.80
888Sport
2.70
Bet365
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.9%
@ 2.10+1.3%
Under 3.5
54.1%
@ 1.69-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.20
Betfair
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Betano
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.9%
@ 1.40+2.5%
No
31.1%
@ 2.76-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.44
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
No
BetVictor
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
William Hil
2.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 7.34+4.1%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.45+2.8%
1-2
8.1%@ 10.26+3.6%
2-2
7.1%@ 10.03+2.5%
3-1
4.8%@ 13.29+1.3%
2-0
4.7%@ 12.87+1.2%
1-3
4.7%@ 19.01+2.3%
0-2
4.6%@ 18.18+2.1%
Vitesse goals ↓
Almere City FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.4%
4.6%
2.7%
1.1%
1
4.5%
10%
8.1%
4.7%
2.0%
2
4.7%
8.2%
7.1%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.8%
4.8%
4.1%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vitesse goals (down), columns = Almere City FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Vitesse is 0.07 points worse than Almere City FC in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Vitesse is 0.34 goals worse than Almere City FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 2.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Vitesse is 0.17 goals better than Almere City FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Vitesse is 1.6 percentage points worse than Almere City FC in terms of average possession (46% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Vitesse
For 5.3 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almere City FC
For 4.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 8.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
9.9
4.4
4.7
4.1
26.9
27.4
26.4
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
10.3
9.0
4.4
4.7
4.0
26.0
29.0
21.5
vs Similar (44)
10.0
9.7
10.3
4.4
4.7
4.1
27.2
27.2
27.3
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
3.0
-
3.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
57%
56%
62%
71%
54%
90%
91%
88%
% under line
44%
43%
44%
38%
29%
46%
10%
9%
12%
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.5
10.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
21.0
20.7
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
11.2
11.6
10.8
2.4
2.5
2.4
20.8
20.8
20.8
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
10.0
8.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
25.5
19.0
32.0
% over line
65%
67%
64%
30%
32%
28%
49%
43%
55%
% under line
35%
33%
36%
70%
68%
72%
51%
57%
45%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
Dordrecht
11.7
De Graafschap
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Volendam
10.5
Emmen
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
25.0
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
MVV
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.8%
@ 1.60-0.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
@ 2.17+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.8%
Under 3.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.2%
Under 21.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vitesse or Draw✗ Miss
62.5%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.35
Edge
-6.7%
38%
24%
37%
covers Vitesse + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Vitesse or Almere City FC✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.7%
38%
24%
37%
covers Vitesse + Almere City FC
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Almere City FC✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied 55.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
+6.0%
38%
24%
37%
covers Draw + Almere City FC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
SBO
1.69
Bet365
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vitesse over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
82.6%
@ 1.13+0.1%
Under
17.4%
@ 5.31-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
888Sport
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Vitesse over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.2%
@ 1.69-2.9%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.07+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Vitesse over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 3.15-3.8%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.31+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.10
Under
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
888Sport
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Vitesse over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 6.45-4.4%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Almere City FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.3%
@ 1.21+5.4%
Under
17.7%
@ 4.00-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.30
1xBet
4.25
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Almere City FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 2.05+6.2%
Under
48.4%
@ 1.70-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Almere City FC over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
25.0%
@ 4.35+3.8%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.18-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.31
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Almere City FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 9.88+0.2%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.04-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.50
Under
888Sport
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vitesse, so a minus line means Vitesse give that many goals of a start and Almere City FC receive them. At -1, Vitesse must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vitesse win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vitesse)Actual: Almere City FC
Vitesse -2
8.7%
@ 7.27-3.7%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 5.98-3.3%
Almere City FC +2
79.7%
@ 1.23+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Vitesse)Actual: Almere City FC
Vitesse -1
20.3%
@ 3.62-4.5%
Draw -1
18.0%
@ 4.11-3.9%
Almere City FC +1
61.7%
@ 1.69+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
Draw
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
3.85
Away
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Handicap +1 (Vitesse)Actual: Almere City FC
Vitesse +1
62.5%
@ 1.35-4.0%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 5.03-0.1%
Almere City FC -1
19.7%
@ 5.75+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
Away
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Handicap +2 (Vitesse)Actual: Almere City FC
Vitesse +2
80.3%
@ 1.11+0.4%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 7.46-0.5%
Almere City FC -2
8.3%
@ 10.79+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.15
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.62
1.08
0.54
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.86
0.71
0.71
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.23-2.3%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.76+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.68
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 2.09-4.3%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.68+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 4.46-6.0%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.17+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.6%
@ 1.66-4.2%
Under
48.4%
@ 2.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 4.26-2.6%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.18+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.17-5.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.90-2.6%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.82+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.61-4.9%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
5.90
Betano
5.40
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 16.83-3.5%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.81
0.46
1.08
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Almere City FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.77
1.33
0.60
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.41
0.76
1.29
0.57
1.53
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.2%
1.04
888Sport
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.1%
1.12
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.1%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
1xBet
1.14
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
82.3%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.3%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.7%
1.23
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.8%
1.25
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.0%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
888Sport
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
-3.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
74.4%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
888Sport
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.32
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
73.0%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vitesse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Almere City FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ferdy Druijf100%
Emanuel Poku50%
Byron Burgering33%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Marley Dors25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Emmanuel van de Blaak25%
Hamza El Dahri25%
Marley Dors25%
Ferdy Druijf0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Byron Burgering0%
Wessel Speel0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Emanuel Poku0%
Bas Huisman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ferdy Druijf50%
Enzo Cornelisse50%
Marley Dors50%
Byron Burgering33%
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Emanuel Poku25%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ferdy Druijf75%
Byron Burgering33%
Emanuel Poku25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Enzo Cornelisse0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Marley Dors0%
Bas Huisman0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Vitesse's squad is €3m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Vitesse and Almere City FC have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Vitesse's midfield is €1m less valuable than Almere City FC's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Vitesse and Almere City FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht