The model favours an away win for Ferizaj, a 58 % chance, with a 23 % probability of a draw and a 19 % chance of a home victory. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total remains 2 goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8 % chance. Vjosa, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded, while Ferizaj on the road averages 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 6.5 (96.2 %), Away +2 handicap (92.9 %), Under 5.5 (90.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.6 %), Away over 0.5 goals (86.7 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (85.4 %). Vjosa arrives on a win, Ferizaj on a draw, setting the stage for a closely contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vjosa win
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj win
59.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vjosa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.60
1.53
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
2.25
2.50
2.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.17
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.21
1.14
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.4%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
6.5%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
Vjosa goals ↓
Ferizaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
8.1%
9.4%
6.5%
3.4%
1
3.7%
11%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.4%
5.1%
5.3%
3.6%
1.9%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vjosa goals (down), columns = Ferizaj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Vjosa is 0.36 points worse than Ferizaj in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Vjosa is 0.26 goals worse than Ferizaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Vjosa is 0.39 goals worse than Ferizaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vjosa or Draw
40.2%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
60%
covers Vjosa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vjosa or Ferizaj
77.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
60%
covers Vjosa + Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ferizaj
82.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
60%
covers Draw + Ferizaj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vjosa over/under 0.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vjosa, so a minus line means Vjosa give that many goals of a start and Ferizaj receive them. At -1, Vjosa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vjosa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vjosa)
Vjosa -2
1.9%
Draw -2
4.8%
Ferizaj +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vjosa)
Vjosa -1
6.7%
Draw -1
11.0%
Ferizaj +1
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vjosa)
Vjosa +1
40.2%
Draw +1
22.4%
Ferizaj -1
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vjosa)
Vjosa +2
62.6%
Draw +2
18.4%
Ferizaj -2
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vjosa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.39
0.77
0.69
0.40
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
Under 0.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.5%
Under 1.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.2%
Under 2.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vjosa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
1.06
0.69
0.43
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.00
2.50
0.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.83
0.85
0.69
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
Under 1.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.5%
Under 2.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vëllaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
Istogu
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Tefik Canga