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Vjosa vs Istogu Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:30
Vjosa
Vjosa
Vs
57%
23%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Istogu
Istogu
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Vjosa’s recent win over Prishtina e Re fuels optimism, while Istogu’s 2-1 victory against FC Besa Peja suggests they still have firepower. The model favours a home win, with a 56% chance, a 22% draw, and a 21% away win. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% chance.

Vjosa averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.36 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Istogu concedes 2.33 and scores 1.25 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Home +2 handicap (91.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.1%), Under 5.5 (87.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.4%), and Over 1.5 (86.2%). Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not supplied.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vjosa win
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Istogu win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

VjosaVjosa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L11D30W02L13L23L10W01L41W12LA·IST11/04H·PRI19/04A·TRE26/04H·RAM03/05A·VËL09/05H·FC 16/05A·KIK23/05A·FC 16/08H·PRI23/08A·LIR30/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.501.601.530.871.47
vs Stronger (4)1.752.252.502.001.002.50
vs Similar (24)1.121.331.501.500.751.17
vs Weaker (2)1.502.001.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IstoguIstogu

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-741W11D01L13L47L23L33D05L21W01LH·VJO11/04A·KEK18/04H·VUS26/04A·FER03/05H·2 K09/05H·TRE16/05A·PRI23/05A·SUH15/08H·FC 22/08A·PRI30/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.901.801.671.002.13
vs Stronger (4)1.002.251.332.330.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.581.922.091.551.152.23
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
Vjosa goals ↓
Istogu goals →
01234
04.8%3.7%2.7%1.1%0.3%
17.0%10%5.6%2.2%0.7%
28.2%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.7%6.7%4.0%1.6%0.5%
42.9%3.5%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vjosa goals (down), columns = Istogu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Vjosa is 0.09 points better than Istogu in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Vjosa is 0.24 goals worse than Istogu in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Vjosa is 0.03 goals worse than Istogu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vjosa or Draw
79.5%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Vjosa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vjosa or Istogu
77.1%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Vjosa + Istogu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Istogu
43.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Istogu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vjosa over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 3.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Vjosa, so a minus line means Vjosa give that many goals of a start and Istogu receive them. At -1, Vjosa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vjosa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vjosa)
Vjosa -2
17.4%
Draw -2
17.4%
Istogu +2
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vjosa)
Vjosa -1
34.8%
Draw -1
21.8%
Istogu +1
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vjosa)
Vjosa +1
79.5%
Draw +1
12.1%
Istogu -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vjosa)
Vjosa +2
91.6%
Draw +2
5.8%
Istogu -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

VjosaVjosa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W01L00D22D00D00D00D00DA·IST11/04H·PRI19/04A·TRE26/04H·RAM03/05A·VËL09/05H·FC 16/05A·KIK23/05A·FC 16/08H·PRI23/08A·LIR30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.620.750.430.29
vs Stronger (5)0.201.200.001.500.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.610.390.770.690.400.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IstoguIstogu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W01L02L14L12L00D01L10W00DH·VJO11/04A·KEK18/04H·VUS26/04A·FER03/05H·2 K09/05H·TRE16/05A·PRI23/05A·SUH15/08H·FC 22/08A·PRI30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.770.530.730.130.80
vs Stronger (5)0.401.400.671.330.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.350.650.550.550.170.75
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

VjosaVjosa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W10W01L13L01L10W01L41W12LA·IST11/04H·PRI19/04A·TRE26/04H·RAM03/05A·VËL09/05H·FC 16/05A·KIK23/05A·FC 16/08H·PRI23/08A·LIR30/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.071.060.690.431.50
vs Stronger (5)1.202.002.500.500.333.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.830.850.690.401.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IstoguIstogu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L00D11D33D11D33D04L11D01LH·VJO11/04A·KEK18/04H·VUS26/04A·FER03/05H·2 K09/05H·TRE16/05A·PRI23/05A·SUH15/08H·FC 22/08A·PRI30/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.031.200.800.471.27
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.671.000.000.50
vs Similar (23)1.001.131.450.820.581.42
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vjosa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vjosa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vjosa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.7%-------
Under 6.595.2%-------
Home +2 handicap91.6%-------
Under 5.588.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.6%-------
Over 1.584.5%-------
Home or Draw79.5%-------
Home +1 handicap79.5%-------
Under 4.577.2%-------
Home or Away77.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
VJO wins
1
Draws
1
IST wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vjosa vs Istogu · H/A from VJO
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/26AIstogu Vs VJO4-1
11/10/25HVJO Vs Istogu1-1

VjosaVjosa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ALiria Prizren Vs VJO2-1
23/08/26HVJO Vs Prishtina e Re4-1
16/08/26AFC Besa Peja Vs VJO1-0
23/05/26AKika Vs VJO0-1
16/05/26HVJO Vs FC Besa Peja2-3
09/05/26AVëllaznimi Vs VJO3-1
03/05/26HVJO Vs Ramiz Sadiku0-2
26/04/26ATrepça Mitrovicë Vs VJO0-3
19/04/26HVJO Vs Prizreni1-1
11/04/26AIstogu Vs VJO4-1

IstoguIstogu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26APrishtina e Re Vs IST1-0
22/08/26HIST Vs FC Besa Peja2-1
15/08/26ASuhareka Vs IST5-0
23/05/26APrizreni Vs IST3-3
16/05/26HIST Vs Trepça'892-3
09/05/26HIST Vs 2 Korriku4-7
03/05/26AFeronikeli Vs IST3-1
26/04/26HIST Vs Vushtrria0-1
18/04/26AKEK-u Vs IST1-1
11/04/26HIST Vs Vjosa4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vjosa
Vjosa
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.03
HomeDDLLW1.33
AwayWLWLL0.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%33%21%
AVG goals2.952.942.95
Over 1.5 %76%89%63%
Over 2.5 %59%56%63%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.191.560.84
Conceded1.761.392.11
BTTS57%67%47%
Clean Sheet24%17%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Istogu
Istogu
Kosovo: Liga E Pare
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL0.95
HomeWLLLW1.28
AwayDLDLL0.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%33%11%
AVG goals3.143.223.05
Over 1.5 %73%61%84%
Over 2.5 %51%50%53%
Over 3.5 %41%44%37%
Scored1.321.720.95
Conceded1.811.502.11
BTTS57%56%58%
Clean Sheet16%28%5%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VëllaznimiVëllaznimi39
100%
3.0
61+5
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.3
-
2Dinamo FerizajDinamo Ferizaj37
67%
2.3
81+7
3.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.3
-
3TrepçaTrepça'8937
67%
2.3
30+3
1.0
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
4Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
5SuharekaSuhareka36
67%
2.0
73+4
3.3
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
62 Korriku2 Korriku36
67%
2.0
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
7Rilindja 1974Rilindja 197434
33%
1.3
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VjosaVjosa33
33%
1.0
54+1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
9Ramiz SadikuRamiz Sadiku33
0%
1.0
44+0
2.7
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10KikaKika33
0%
1.0
11+0
0.7
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.30.3
-
11FC Besa PejaFC Besa Peja33
33%
1.0
23-1
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.0
-
12Trepça MitrovicëTrepça Mitrovicë33
33%
1.0
48-4
4.0
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
13Prishtina e RePrishtina e Re33
33%
1.0
26-4
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
14IstoguIstogu33
33%
1.0
27-5
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.3
-
15KF LepenciKF Lepenci32
0%
0.7
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
16MitrovicaMitrovica32
0%
0.7
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.0
-
17FerizajFerizaj31
0%
0.3
24-2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.3
-
18Tefik CangaTefik Canga31
0%
0.3
36-3
3.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →

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