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Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani Result & Analysis

Date: 31/05/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 1-2
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vs
45%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Vllaznia Shkodër are the clear favourites, with a 45% chance of triumph, while the draw sits at 28% and AF Elbasani’s odds of victory are 27%. The model expects about 2.6 goals in total, with the most probable total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. Vllaznia’s home form shows they average 1.13 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against teams of similar strength, whereas AF Elbasani, on the road, averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 74.9% probability and Under 3.5 with 73.2%. The match is poised to be a tight contest, but the home side’s edge in the model’s assessment makes a Vllaznia win the most likely outcome.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Vllaznia Shkodër, fell short as AF Elbasani snatched a 2-1 away win, extending their recent run of wins. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away victory. The model’s selections Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 both hit, with probabilities of 74.9% and 73.2% respectively. The most likely total of 2 goals, at 26%, was surpassed, but the predicted 1-1 scoreline did not materialise. Overall, the model’s prediction missed the winner but got the market totals right.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W00D13L02L01L20W02L12LH·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05H·DIN16/05H·EGN23/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.831.130.800.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.831.130.800.730.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D14L30W21W31W24L12L13L04L30WH·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.201.400.871.531.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.471.201.400.871.531.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
6.9%
1-2 ✓
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
AF Elbasani goals →
01234
08.5%6.9%4.5%1.7%0.5%
19.8%13%6.8%2.5%0.7%
28.3%9.2%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.2%4.6%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.6%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = AF Elbasani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pogradeci
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Besa Kavajë
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.13 points worse than AF Elbasani in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Pogradeci
1.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Flamurtari
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tirana
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.23 goals worse than AF Elbasani in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.33
Besa Kavajë
0.50
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.23 goals better than AF Elbasani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D02L00D01L10W00D01LH·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05H·DIN16/05H·EGN23/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.300.730.200.270.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.300.730.200.270.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D00D01L20W01L00D01L03L30WH·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.530.330.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.400.530.330.530.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D00D11D02L00D10W02L11DH·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05H·DIN16/05H·EGN23/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.400.600.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.430.530.400.600.470.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L30W20W11D23L12L12L01L00DH·EGN20/03A·DIN04/04H·PAR13/04A·TEU18/04H·VLL27/04A·VOR02/05A·BYL06/05H·TIR10/05H·EGN17/05H·DIN24/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.800.870.531.001.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.930.800.870.531.001.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (29)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (11)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
VS wins
3
Draws
2
AE wins

Head-to-head

Vllaznia Shkodër vs AF Elbasani · H/A from VS
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/26AAF Elbasani Vs VS3-1
15/02/26HVS Vs AF Elbasani2-1
08/12/25AAF Elbasani Vs VS1-0
04/10/25HVS Vs AF Elbasani1-0
19/04/25AAF Elbasani Vs VS1-1
21/02/25HVS Vs AF Elbasani1-1
08/12/24AAF Elbasani Vs VS1-2
06/10/24HVS Vs AF Elbasani0-0

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26HVS Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-2
16/05/26HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana0-2
10/05/26HVS Vs Flamurtari2-0
06/05/26ATirana Vs VS1-0
02/05/26HVS Vs Bylis0-2
27/04/26AAF Elbasani Vs VS3-1
18/04/26AVora Vs VS0-0
12/04/26HVS Vs Teuta Durrës1-0
04/04/26APartizani Vs VS0-2
21/03/26HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/26HAE Vs Dinamo Tirana3-0
17/05/26HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-4
10/05/26HAE Vs Tirana1-3
06/05/26ABylis Vs AE2-1
02/05/26AVora Vs AE4-2
27/04/26HAE Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
18/04/26ATeuta Durrës Vs AE1-2
13/04/26HAE Vs Partizani3-0
04/04/26ADinamo Tirana Vs AE4-1
20/03/26HAE Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.58
HomeWLWLL2.04
AwayDWDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%63%22%
AVG goals2.182.192.17
Over 1.5 %60%63%57%
Over 2.5 %34%37%30%
Over 3.5 %22%19%26%
Scored1.201.371.00
Conceded0.980.811.17
BTTS42%37%48%
Clean Sheet38%44%30%
Corners---
Cards---
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.72
HomeWWLLW1.96
AwayWLWLL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.242.002.50
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %18%12%25%
Scored1.261.271.25
Conceded0.980.731.25
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet40%50%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci36
67%
2.0
41+3
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë23
50%
1.5
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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