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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Dinamo Tirana Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 0-2
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vs
48%
31%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape the forecast: Vllaznia Shkodër’s home form shows they concede only 0.64 goals per game, while Dinamo Tirana’s away side concedes 0.87, suggesting a tight contest. The model favours a home win with a 48% chance, a draw 31%, and an away win 21%. The average expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Vllaznia, with a 15.2% probability. Vllaznia’s average home scoring of 1.36 goals against similar opposition and Dinamo’s away scoring of 0.93 highlight a modest offensive output. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 with an 84.5% chance, and no other picks are offered. This concise preview underscores a low-scoring, defensively dominated match where the home side is marginally favoured.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Dinamo Tirana snatched a 0-2 away win, overturning Vllaznia Shkodër’s hope to extend their recent run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was given a 48% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 84.5% probability, proved correct, as only two goals were scored. The match finished 0-2, an Away win, leaving the home side’s 48% chance unfulfilled while the 21% away win probability materialised. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 did not materialise, and the 2.1 expected total was surpassed by the 2-goal outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana win✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D20W10W00D13L02L01L20WA·FLA08/03A·EGN13/03H·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.731.360.640.750.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.030.731.360.640.750.81
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L00D41W11D11D13L20W22D12LH·PAR09/03H·TEU15/03A·VLL21/03H·AF 04/04A·BYL13/04H·TIR18/04A·FLA27/04H·EGN02/05H·VOR06/05A·PAR10/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.971.471.070.930.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.200.971.471.070.930.87
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.3%
No
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
0-0
13.9%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
4.9%
3-0
4.6%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Dinamo Tirana goals →
01234
014%8.5%3.7%1.0%0.2%
115%14%4.9%1.2%0.2%
211%8.2%3.2%0.8%0.2%
34.6%3.6%1.4%0.3%0.1%
41.5%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tirana goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pogradeci
2.00
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Besa Kavajë
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Partizani
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Bylis
1.14
Flamurtari
1.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.28 points better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Pogradeci
1.33
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Flamurtari
1.08
Bylis
1.06
Partizani
1.06
Besa Kavajë
1.00
Tirana
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.03 goals worse than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.33
Besa Kavajë
0.50
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Flamurtari
1.25
Tirana
1.28
Partizani
1.33
Bylis
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Kastrioti Krujë
3.00
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.13 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D10W00D02L00D01L10WA·FLA08/03A·EGN13/03H·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.300.930.210.250.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.570.300.930.210.250.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D11D01L00D11D20W20W02LH·PAR09/03H·TEU15/03A·VLL21/03H·AF 04/04A·BYL13/04H·TIR18/04A·FLA27/04H·EGN02/05H·VOR06/05A·PAR10/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.670.600.200.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.430.600.670.600.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W00D00D11D02L00D10WA·FLA08/03A·EGN13/03H·DIN21/03A·PAR04/04H·TEU12/04A·VOR18/04A·AF 27/04H·BYL02/05A·TIR06/05H·FLA10/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.430.430.500.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.430.430.430.500.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D30W10W11D02L00D02L10WH·PAR09/03H·TEU15/03A·VLL21/03H·AF 04/04A·BYL13/04H·TIR18/04A·FLA27/04H·EGN02/05H·VOR06/05A·PAR10/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.370.800.470.730.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.770.370.800.470.730.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (29)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (11)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
VS wins
2
Draws
2
DT wins

Head-to-head

Vllaznia Shkodër vs Dinamo Tirana · H/A from VS
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0
19/01/26ADinamo Tirana Vs VS0-2
08/11/25HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana1-0
31/08/25ADinamo Tirana Vs VS3-1
04/05/25HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana2-1
12/04/25HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana3-0
15/02/25ADinamo Tirana Vs VS0-0
04/12/24HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana2-3

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HVS Vs Flamurtari2-0
06/05/26ATirana Vs VS1-0
02/05/26HVS Vs Bylis0-2
27/04/26AAF Elbasani Vs VS3-1
18/04/26AVora Vs VS0-0
12/04/26HVS Vs Teuta Durrës1-0
04/04/26APartizani Vs VS0-2
21/03/26HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0
13/03/26AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VS0-0
08/03/26AFlamurtari Vs VS1-0

Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26APartizani Vs DT2-1
06/05/26HDT Vs Vora2-2
02/05/26HDT Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë2-0
27/04/26AFlamurtari Vs DT3-1
18/04/26HDT Vs Tirana1-1
13/04/26ABylis Vs DT1-1
04/04/26HDT Vs AF Elbasani4-1
21/03/26AVllaznia Shkodër Vs DT0-0
15/03/26HDT Vs Teuta Durrës0-1
09/03/26HDT Vs Partizani0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.60
HomeWDWLW2.12
AwayDWDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%65%21%
AVG goals2.142.192.08
Over 1.5 %58%62%54%
Over 2.5 %34%38%29%
Over 3.5 %22%19%25%
Scored1.201.420.96
Conceded0.940.771.12
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.22
HomeLWDWD1.48
AwayWDDLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.262.402.12
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %40%32%48%
Over 3.5 %16%20%12%
Scored1.121.400.84
Conceded1.141.001.28
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3968
49%
1.7
5342+11
2.4
67%
51%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
2Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3966
49%
1.7
5035+15
2.2
62%
33%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.9
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3963
46%
1.6
4433+11
2.0
56%
28%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3952
33%
1.3
4538+7
2.1
69%
33%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
5PartizaniPartizani3648
36%
1.3
3848-10
2.4
72%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3745
27%
1.2
3337-4
1.9
49%
27%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.0
-
7TiranaTirana3644
31%
1.2
3646-10
2.3
69%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
8VoraVora3642
28%
1.2
3940-1
2.2
64%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
9BylisBylis3641
28%
1.1
3850-12
2.4
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10FlamurtariFlamurtari3636
22%
1.0
3945-6
2.3
69%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11PogradeciPogradeci36
67%
2.0
41+3
1.7
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.3
-
12Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë23
50%
1.5
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
13Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
14Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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