Defensive solidity will set the tone for Vllaznia Shkodër’s home outing against Dinamo Tirana, as both sides have conceded just over a goal per game against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, a 31% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4% probability. Vllaznia’s home form shows 1.19 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, while Dinamo’s away numbers are 0.79 scored and 1.29 conceded.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.6%), Under 4.5 (92.3%) and Home +2 handicap (89.9%). All figures are expressed as percentages and are presented exactly once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.43
0.93
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
1.07
1.46
0.92
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.5%
Under 1.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.3%
Under 2.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.7%
Under 3.5
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.6%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.3%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Dinamo Tirana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.6%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.3%
8.0%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tirana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.28 points better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.03 goals worse than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.13 goals better than Dinamo Tirana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vllaznia Shkodër or Draw
71.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër or Dinamo Tirana
68.4%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Dinamo Tirana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
59.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
32%
28%
covers Draw + Dinamo Tirana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vllaznia Shkodër, so a minus line means Vllaznia Shkodër give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Tirana receive them. At -1, Vllaznia Shkodër must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vllaznia Shkodër win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër -2
6.1%
Draw -2
12.0%
Dinamo Tirana +2
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër -1
18.1%
Draw -1
22.1%
Dinamo Tirana +1
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër +1
71.8%
Draw +1
17.5%
Dinamo Tirana -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.8%
Dinamo Tirana -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.71
0.50
0.12
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.71
0.77
0.54
0.07
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tirana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tirana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.36
0.69
0.38
0.73
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tirana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Vllaznia Shkodër's squad is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tirana's (€4m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër's attack is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tirana's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Dinamo Tirana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Dinamo Tirana have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Vora
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana