Vllaznia Shkodër vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, as Vllaznia Shkodër have been conceding just 0.73 goals per game at home against similarly strong opponents, while Egnatia Rrogozhinë have allowed 1.07 goals on the road. The model projects a 40 % chance of a home win, a 32 % draw, and a 28 % away win, making a Vllaznia victory the most likely outcome. With an expected total of 2.2 goals, the average match is expected to finish with two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6 % probability. Vllaznia’s average home scoring of 1.27 goals and conceding of 0.73, combined with Egnatia’s away scoring of 1.0 and conceding of 1.07, suggest a low-scoring affair. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, has an 82.6 % probability. The match is set to be a defensive showdown with a 40 % chance of a Vllaznia win, a 32 % chance of a draw, and a 28 % chance of an Egnatia win.

The upset came early as Vllaznia Shkodër, who were coming off a draw in their last five, failed to deliver the home win the model had favoured at 40 %. Egnatia Rrogozhinë, fresh from a win, snatched a 1-2 victory, proving the model’s pick was wrong. The predicted 2-goal total did not materialise, but the model’s single suggestion - Under 3.5 at 82.6 % - was correct. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result of an away win, confirming the surprise outcome. The model’s confidence in a home win was misplaced, while its confidence in a low-scoring game proved accurate.