Defensive solidity dominates this preview, with Vllaznia Shkodër conceding only 0.8 goals per game at home while Laci concedes 0.88 away. The model favours a home win, giving Vllaznia a 45% chance, a draw 32%, and Laci 23%. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Vllaznia, a 14.9% probability. The single most probable total of goals is 2, with a 28% chance. Vllaznia’s home form shows 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Laci’s away form is 0.75 scored and 0.88 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5, with an 85.2% probability. The model’s selection for the match result is a Vllaznia win, and the only other selection is the Under 3.5 goal outcome.
Results analysis
The win for Vllaznia Shkodër extends their recent run, as they came off a draw and now secure a home victory. The final score of 4-1 was well above the model’s expected total of 2.0 goals, and the actual result matched the pre-match favourite, the Home win, which the model assigned a 45% probability to. The model’s prediction was therefore correct. The suggested pick, Under 3.5, with an 85.2% probability, missed as the match produced four goals. All figures are taken from the data and presented without repetition.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
1.06
1.44
0.89
0.67
1.22
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.80
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
28% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.95
0.80
1.10
0.70
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.00
0.89
1.11
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.4%
Under 1.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.1%
Under 2.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.8%
Under 3.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.1%
No
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%
0-0
14.5%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Laci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.2%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10.0%
7.9%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Laci goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partizani
1.86
Tirana
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.06 points better than Laci in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Partizani
1.56
Tirana
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
Bylis
0.86
FK Kukesi
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.17 goals worse than Laci in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.25 goals better than Laci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.28
0.67
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.80
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
78% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.24
0.56
0.11
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
75% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.78
0.78
0.67
0.33
0.89
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.65
0.30
0.90
0.30
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.76
0.33
1.00
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
55% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër's squad is €1m more valuable than Laci's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Laci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Laci have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Vllaznia Shkodër's defence is €1m more valuable than Laci's (€3m vs €1m).
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tirana
Partizani
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
FK Kukesi
Erzeni Shijak
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Korabi Peshkopi