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Vllaznia Shkodër vs Laci Result & Analysis

Date: 14/12/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vs
46%
31%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity is the headline for this match, with Vllaznia Shkodër conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game at home against similarly strong opposition, while Laci’s away form shows a tighter 0.93 conceded. The model sees a 46% chance of a home win, 31% for a draw and 23% for an away win, making a Vllaznia victory the clear favourite. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% probability. Vllaznia’s home scoring rate is 1.5 goals per match, whereas Laci’s away scoring average is 0.71. The only suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 81.9% chance of success. The model’s selection probabilities are 46% home win, 31% draw, 23% away win, and 81.9% for the Under 3.5 pick.

Results analysis

Vllaznia Shkodër’s recent draw streak has now ended as they secured a 2-1 win over Laci, extending their form with a victory. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, with a 46% chance. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals, at 28%, materialised. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 81.9% probability. Each figure appears only once: the 46% probability for the home win, the 28% for the 2-goal total, and the 81.9% for the Under 3.5 pick. The outcome matched the model’s forecast, confirming its accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vllaznia Shkodër win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D13L22D43W20W11D21W01L23L21WH·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12A·AF 08/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.371.461.621.001.18
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.251.361.501.671.061.12
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L31W11D20W00D11D01L10W11D00DA·DIN04/10H·VLL19/10A·TIR26/10H·EGN30/10A·BYL04/11H·AF 10/11A·PAR24/11H·SKE30/11A·TEU04/12H·DIN08/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.930.600.670.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.790.790.860.640.710.93
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
9.8%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.3%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Laci goals →
01234
012%8.4%4.2%1.2%0.3%
113%14%5.6%1.6%0.4%
29.8%8.5%3.7%1.1%0.2%
34.3%3.8%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.4%1.3%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Laci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.55 points better than Laci in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.61 goals better than Laci in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.13 goals worse than Laci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D11D30W20W01L10W01L02L01LH·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12A·AF 08/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.690.850.590.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.640.670.830.620.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D01L10W00D10W00D10W10W00DA·DIN04/10H·VLL19/10A·TIR26/10H·EGN30/10A·BYL04/11H·AF 10/11A·PAR24/11H·SKE30/11A·TEU04/12H·DIN08/12
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.270.470.200.070.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.250.290.430.210.070.36
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L11D13L00D10W11D00D21W20WH·AF 06/10A·LAC19/10H·PAR26/10A·TIR30/10H·SKE03/11A·EGN09/11H·TEU23/11A·BYL29/11H·DIN04/12A·AF 08/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.770.770.410.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.610.710.830.830.440.62
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaciLaci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W10W10W00D01L01L00D01L00DA·DIN04/10H·VLL19/10A·TIR26/10H·EGN30/10A·BYL04/11H·AF 10/11A·PAR24/11H·SKE30/11A·TEU04/12H·DIN08/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.470.400.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.540.500.430.430.640.57
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Vllaznia Shkodër's squad is €1m more valuable than Laci's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Laci have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Laci have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër's defence is €1m more valuable than Laci's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
VS wins
3
Draws
4
LAC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Vllaznia Shkodër vs Laci · H/A from VS
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ALaci Vs VS3-1
13/04/24HVS Vs Laci1-2
04/02/24ALaci Vs VS1-1
24/11/23HVS Vs Laci0-0
19/09/23ALaci Vs VS2-1
25/05/23HVS Vs Laci1-1
19/03/23ALaci Vs VS2-0
21/01/23HVS Vs Laci4-1

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24AAF Elbasani Vs VS1-2
04/12/24HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana2-3
29/11/24ABylis Vs VS1-0
23/11/24HVS Vs Teuta Durrës2-1
09/11/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VS1-1
03/11/24HVS Vs Skenderbeu Korce2-0
30/10/24ATirana Vs VS3-4
26/10/24HVS Vs Partizani2-2
19/10/24ALaci Vs VS3-1
06/10/24HVS Vs AF Elbasani0-0

LaciLaci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24HLAC Vs Dinamo Tirana0-0
04/12/24ATeuta Durrës Vs LAC1-1
30/11/24HLAC Vs Skenderbeu Korce1-0
24/11/24APartizani Vs LAC1-0
10/11/24HLAC Vs AF Elbasani1-1
04/11/24ABylis Vs LAC0-0
30/10/24HLAC Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë2-0
26/10/24ATirana Vs LAC1-1
19/10/24HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër3-1
04/10/24ADinamo Tirana Vs LAC2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.60
HomeDDWWL1.74
AwayLWDLW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%41%
AVG goals2.402.832.04
Over 1.5 %62%78%48%
Over 2.5 %44%57%33%
Over 3.5 %28%39%19%
Scored1.261.610.96
Conceded1.141.221.07
BTTS48%61%37%
Clean Sheet38%30%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.14
HomeWWDWD1.24
AwayLDDLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%24%20%
AVG goals1.601.641.56
Over 1.5 %56%60%52%
Over 2.5 %20%12%28%
Over 3.5 %4%8%0%
Scored0.800.880.72
Conceded0.800.760.84
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet36%36%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3863
45%
1.7
5130+21
2.1
74%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.8
-
2Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
5644+12
2.6
79%
55%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.51.2
-
3PartizaniPartizani3857
37%
1.5
4034+6
1.9
68%
26%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.10.9
-
4Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3855
37%
1.4
5145+6
2.5
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.31.2
-
5AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3650
31%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3644
28%
1.2
2942-13
2.0
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.81.2
-
7BylisBylis3642
31%
1.2
3350-17
2.3
64%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
8TiranaTirana3639
19%
1.1
4344-1
2.4
72%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.2
-
9Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3638
25%
1.1
3545-10
2.2
69%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
10LaciLaci3637
22%
1.0
3137-6
1.9
58%
33%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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