The model favours a Vllaznia Shkodër win, with a 44 % chance of triumph, 29 % for a draw and 27 % for Partizani. The expected total is 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9 %. Vllaznia, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.18 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, while Partizani on the road averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 5.5 (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7 %), Under 4.5 (89.3 %) and Home +2 handicap (89.2 %). Both sides have recently drawn, with Vllaznia ending a streak of one win and three losses, and Partizani ending three losses and one draw. The match is expected to be tight, with low scoring and a slight edge for the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër win
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
4.9%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Partizani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.1%
8.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Partizani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.28 points better than Partizani in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.07 goals better than Partizani in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.49 goals better than Partizani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vllaznia Shkodër or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër or Partizani
70.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Partizani
57.2%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vllaznia Shkodër, so a minus line means Vllaznia Shkodër give that many goals of a start and Partizani receive them. At -1, Vllaznia Shkodër must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vllaznia Shkodër win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër -2
7.9%
Draw -2
13.1%
Partizani +2
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër -1
21.0%
Draw -1
21.8%
Partizani +1
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër +1
72.0%
Draw +1
16.7%
Partizani -1
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Vllaznia Shkodër)
Vllaznia Shkodër +2
88.7%
Draw +2
7.9%
Partizani -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.3%
Under 0.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.8%
Under 1.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.9%
Under 1.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Partizani have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër's attack is €2m less valuable than Partizani's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Partizani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Partizani have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Laci
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Tirana