In the upcoming match between Vllaznia Shkodër and Skenderbeu Korce, the defensive numbers suggest a low-scoring encounter, with the home side conceding just 0.79 goals per game on average at home against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Skenderbeu Korce concedes 1 goal per game on average while playing away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a 34% chance of a home win, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 32% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2, and the most likely score is a 0-0 draw, which has a probability of 15.2%.
Vllaznia Shkodër has averaged 1.07 goals scored per game at home against similar opponents, while Skenderbeu Korce has averaged 1.4 goals scored per game while playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the Under 3.5, which has a probability of 86.1%. Other suggested picks include the Under 3.5, with a probability of 86.1%. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 34%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Vllaznia Shkodër, failed to deliver as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The model had picked a home win with a 34% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Under 5.5 hit at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3%, and Under 4.5 hit at 94.9%. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely 2-goal total, but the expected 1-0 win for Vllaznia did not materialise.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.51
Edge
-25.7%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Dafabet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Draw✓ Hit
33.8%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.73
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.10
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.73
Superbet
3.70
Skenderbeu Korce win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.62
Edge
+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.14
William Hil
5.80
Dafabet
5.80
Betano
5.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.87
1.12
0.88
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.87
1.12
0.88
0.79
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.87
0.87
1.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.89
0.75
0.75
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.95
0.76
2.27
0.91
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.1%
@ 1.37-6.3%
Under 1.5
39.9%
@ 2.71+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
Pinnacle
2.58
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.19-10.3%
Under 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.59+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
13.9%
@ 4.05-8.6%
Under 3.5
86.1%
@ 1.18+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Superbet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.8%
@ 2.25-0.1%
No
59.2%
@ 1.56+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
No
William Hil
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betfair
1.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.2%@ 7.66+10.2%
1-1
14.9%@ 7.50+9.7%
1-0
12.6%@ 4.88+4.7%
0-1
12.1%@ 11.35+8.7%
2-0
7.0%@ 5.72+0.3%
2-1
6.8%@ 8.62+2.3%
1-2
6.6%@ 19.15+4.5%
0-2
6.5%@ 27.20+5.1%
Vllaznia Shkodër goals ↓
Skenderbeu Korce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.0%
6.8%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (down), columns = Skenderbeu Korce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.45 points better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.22 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Vllaznia Shkodër is 0.37 goals better than Skenderbeu Korce in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Vllaznia Shkodër or Draw✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 84.1% · @ 1.10
Edge
-16.2%
34%
34%
32%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Vllaznia Shkodër or Skenderbeu Korce✗ Miss
66.2%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.21
Edge
-10.0%
34%
34%
32%
covers Vllaznia Shkodër + Skenderbeu Korce
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw or Skenderbeu Korce✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.32
Edge
+26.1%
34%
34%
32%
covers Draw + Skenderbeu Korce
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.5%
@ 1.14-15.7%
Under
36.5%
@ 4.35+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.10
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.7%
@ 1.85-22.8%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.82+22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 3.56-17.3%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.21+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Under
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 6.70-11.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.06+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Under
1xBet
1.06
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.1%
@ 1.86+12.8%
Under
37.9%
@ 1.81-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 5.27+8.0%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.10-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 13.00-92.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Vllaznia Shkodër, so a minus line means Vllaznia Shkodër give that many goals of a start and Skenderbeu Korce receive them. At -1, Vllaznia Shkodër must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Vllaznia Shkodër win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.25
0.00
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.45
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.43+1.8%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.50-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
William Hil
2.62
1xBet
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Superbet
2.52
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 3.10+1.8%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.29-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.14
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Superbet
3.00
Under
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.4%
@ 7.83-3.4%
Under 2.5
91.6%
@ 1.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.00
Under
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 1.75-5.5%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.94+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.91
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 4.72-7.5%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.14+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.55
Under
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 10.00-6.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.1%
@ 3.25+7.1%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.26-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.24
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 11.00-2.0%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.44
0.69
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.57
0.44
0.69
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Skenderbeu Korce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skenderbeu Korce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.56
0.50
0.75
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.10
0.33
1.27
0.45
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skenderbeu Korce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.9%
1.03
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
-
-
+17.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.05
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.1%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-
-
-8.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Vllaznia Shkodër and Skenderbeu Korce have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →