The model sees Volgar Astrakhan as the favourite, with a 43% chance of winning, versus 28% for a Volga Ulyanovsk victory and 29% for a draw. An average of 2.5 goals is expected, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14% probability. Volga’s home form shows they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Volgar on the road averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded versus comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.8%, Under 3.5 at 76.6% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 76.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 71.9%, and Over 1.5 at 71.7% (hit). These picks reflect the expected intensity and goal output of the encounter.
Results analysis
Volgar Astrakhan’s 2-game winning run carried them into a convincing 0-3 victory over Volga Ulyanovsk, extending their winning streak. The model’s favourite, Away win, came through with a 43% probability, and the prediction proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 76.6% chance, and Over 1.5 goals also hit, at 71.7%. The final result matched the model’s expectation of an away triumph, confirming the accuracy of the chosen outcomes and the overall form narrative.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan win✓ Hit
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.29
0.75
1.50
0.67
1.08
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.22
0.78
1.56
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Volgar Astrakhan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volgar Astrakhan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.96
0.92
0.69
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.74
0.91
0.55
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.6%
Under 2.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.4%
Under 3.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.0%
Volga Ulyanovsk goals ↓
Volgar Astrakhan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
11%
8.2%
3.8%
1.3%
1
7.9%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.0%
6.9%
4.7%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volga Ulyanovsk goals (down), columns = Volgar Astrakhan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rubin
2.03
Baltika
1.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.82
Enisey
1.59
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.35
Akron
1.35
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
KAMAZ
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.21
Urozhay
1.09
Veles
0.97
Krasnodar 2
0.91
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.88
FC UFA
0.88
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.41 points worse than Volgar Astrakhan in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.65
Baltika
1.65
Rubin
1.56
Ska-khabarovsk
1.47
Enisey
1.26
Rodina Moskva
1.24
Akron
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.09
Volgar Astrakhan
1.09
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.06
Urozhay
1.06
Veles
1.03
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Krasnodar 2
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.74
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.68
Volga Ulyanovsk is 0.41 goals worse than Volgar Astrakhan in terms of goals scored per game (0.68 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.76
Rubin
0.79
Baltika
0.88
FK Neftekhimik
0.97
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.03
Enisey
1.03
Akron
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Rodina Moskva
1.12
Ska-khabarovsk
1.15
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
1.21
Urozhay
1.21
Arsenal Tula
1.35
FC UFA
1.35
Krasnodar 2
1.59
Veles
1.62
Volga Ulyanovsk and Volgar Astrakhan are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Volga Ulyanovsk
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Volgar Astrakhan
For 3.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
5.8
8.0
5.4
1.3
0.3
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
5.0
-
5.0
1.8
0.0
3.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
6.2
8.0
5.7
1.1
0.4
1.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
21%
8%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
79%
92%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (Volgar Astrakhan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volgar Astrakhan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
8.2
11.3
6.4
2.0
1.7
2.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
6.0
-
6.0
3.0
2.5
3.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
11.3
6.7
1.7
1.5
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
67%
0%
29%
23%
36%
-
-
-
% under line
75%
33%
100%
71%
77%
64%
-
-
-
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
10.4
FK Neftekhimik
10.3
Urozhay
10.0
Baltika
9.7
Krasnodar 2
9.6
Akron
9.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9.1
Rubin
9.1
Enisey
8.8
FC UFA
8.6
Rodina Moskva
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Volgar Astrakhan
8.2
KAMAZ
8.2
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
7.9
Veles
7.8
Volga Ulyanovsk
5.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ska-khabarovsk
6.8
KAMAZ
6.1
Rubin
5.8
Akron
5.6
Krasnodar 2
5.5
Volgar Astrakhan
5.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
5.2
FK Neftekhimik
5.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
5.0
Enisey
4.9
Urozhay
4.8
FC UFA
4.7
Veles
4.6
Arsenal Tula
4.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4.3
Rodina Moskva
4.2
Baltika
4.2
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.8%
Under 9.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
71.9%
Under 3.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.71
0.42
0.67
0.33
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Volgar Astrakhan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volgar Astrakhan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.50
0.38
0.31
0.55
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.32
0.36
0.18
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volga Ulyanovsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.58
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.56
0.44
0.89
0.22
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Volgar Astrakhan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Volgar Astrakhan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.46
0.54
0.38
0.73
0.55
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.42
0.55
0.36
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Volga Ulyanovsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volga Ulyanovsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volgar Astrakhan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Russia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →