Volna’s recent slump of three straight defeats at home is now turning into a bright spot, as the Pythia model still rates a home win at 64%. The model’s confidence stems from Volna’s strong home form against weaker opponents, averaging two goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Osipovichy’s away record against stronger teams is poor, with only 0.91 goals scored and 2.82 conceded. The expected total of 3.5 goals and a 21% chance of exactly three goals set the stage for a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 9.5% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the odds of a draw or an away win are 20% and 16% respectively. The single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.7% probability. Volna’s home win percentage is 64%, the draw 20%, and the away win 16%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries a probability of 87.7%.
Results analysis
The win extends Volna’s run after three straight defeats, while Osipovichy come off a heavy loss. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 64% probability, and it proved correct as Volna edged Osipovichy 2-1. The predicted most likely total was 3 goals, a 21% chance, and the final tally matched that expectation. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 87.7%, also hit. All suggested picks were settled, and the outcome matched the forecast. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy, with the favoured result and the key selection both coming in.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Volna win✓ Hit
64.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy win✗ Miss
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Volna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.73
1.60
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
2.00
3.00
3.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.57
1.40
1.30
0.91
1.82
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.50
0.50
2.31
0.93
2.71
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
2.60
0.50
2.43
0.91
2.82
vs Similar (5)
0.80
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
No
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.5%
1-1
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
7.6%
3-0
6.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
4.6%
Volna goals ↓
Osipovichy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
1
6.1%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.3%
9.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.6%
7.6%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Volna goals (down), columns = Osipovichy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Volna is 1.19 points better than Osipovichy in terms of average points per game (1.34 vs 0.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Volna is 0.62 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 0.66).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Volna is 1.12 goals better than Osipovichy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 2.66).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Volna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.20
0.53
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.43
1.20
0.40
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.50
0.94
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (25)
0.44
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.36
1.27
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Volna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.53
1.07
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.29
1.14
0.20
0.90
0.36
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Osipovichy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.47
0.00
1.38
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (25)
0.24
1.48
0.00
1.43
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Volna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Volna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Volna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
Volna and Osipovichy have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
Volna and Osipovichy have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Volna and Osipovichy have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
Volna and Osipovichy have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →