Völsungur’s recent form has been uneven, but their home attack has averaged 1.64 goals per game while conceding 2.71 against stronger opposition. Grindavik, on the road, has been more prolific, scoring 2.5 and conceding only 1.25 against weaker teams. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 4.6 goals and a 31 % chance of 6 or more goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2, with a 6.9 % probability. The model favours an away win, giving Grindavik a 47 % chance of victory, Völsungur a 33 % chance of winning, and a 20 % chance of a draw. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 94.9 %, Over 2.5 goals at 83.7 %, and BTTS Yes at 81.1 %. Each selection stands alone with its own probability, independent of the match outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Grindavik, failed to materialise as Völsungur seized the match, winning 2-0. The model’s call was wrong, with a 47 % probability for the away side. Völsungur’s recent form shows a shaky run, coming off a 0-4 defeat, while Grindavik, also fresh from a 1-6 loss, had a stronger away record. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit at 94.9 %, Over 2.5 missed at 83.7 %, and BTTS Yes missed at 81.1 %. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, overturning expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Völsungur win✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grindavik win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Völsungur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
2.77
1.75
2.62
1.36
2.93
vs Stronger (27)
1.52
2.81
1.64
2.71
1.38
2.92
vs Similar (3)
2.00
2.33
2.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.47
1.33
2.42
1.56
2.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
2.65
1.10
2.30
1.38
2.92
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
1.83
2.50
3.00
2.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.9%
Under 1.5
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
83.7%
Under 2.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
81.1%
No
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
1-1
5.8%
2-3
5.8%
2-1
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
3-2
4.9%
3-3
4.1%
Völsungur goals ↓
Grindavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
2.0%
3.1%
2.6%
1.6%
1
1.6%
5.8%
6.6%
5.5%
3.4%
2
2.2%
5.6%
6.9%
5.8%
3.6%
3
1.6%
3.9%
4.9%
4.1%
2.5%
4
0.8%
2.1%
2.6%
2.1%
1.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Völsungur goals (down), columns = Grindavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
Völsungur is 0.28 points better than Grindavik in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
Völsungur is 0.15 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
Völsungur is 0.11 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Völsungur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.30
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.67
1.37
0.79
1.29
0.54
1.46
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.40
0.58
1.58
0.56
1.28
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
1.52
0.50
1.50
0.46
1.54
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Völsungur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
1.00
1.38
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (27)
0.85
1.44
0.86
1.43
0.85
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
0.75
0.83
1.00
1.22
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
Afturelding
HK Kopavogur
Fylkir
Throttur Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Grotta
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir