This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.17
1.67
1.27
1.53
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.55
0.83
1.00
0.60
2.20
vs Weaker (17)
2.35
0.94
2.22
1.44
2.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.5%
0-2 ✓
9.0%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
6.1%
1-0
5.6%
1-3
5.5%
VPS goals ↓
HJK Helsinki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
9.5%
9.0%
5.1%
2.2%
1
5.6%
13%
9.7%
5.5%
2.3%
2
3.6%
6.1%
5.2%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = VPS goals (down), columns = HJK Helsinki goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
VPS is 0.38 points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
VPS is 0.94 goals worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 2.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
VPS is 0.07 goals better than HJK Helsinki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
VPS is 7.9 percentage points worse than HJK Helsinki in terms of average possession (50% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
VPS
For 2.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HJK Helsinki
For 4.8 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.9 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.0
11.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
25.5
25.0
26.0
vs Stronger (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
9.0
9.0
-
0.0
0.1
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
-
11.0
0.8
0.0
1.3
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
50%
0%
100%
2%
0%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
98%
100%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.8
10.5
0.6
0.8
0.4
26.5
24.0
29.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
-
10.0
3.0
-
3.0
30.0
-
30.0
vs Similar (21)
10.2
11.3
7.0
0.8
1.5
0.1
28.0
28.3
27.0
vs Weaker (27)
14.0
13.0
15.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
20.0
11.0
29.0
% over line
62%
75%
50%
10%
12%
8%
88%
75%
100%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
90%
88%
92%
12%
25%
0%
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AC Oulu
12.0
Gnistan
11.7
Kooteepee
11.3
FF Jaro
11.0
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.8
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.6
HJK Helsinki
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gnistan
6.0
AC Oulu
5.0
Kooteepee
4.9
Inter Turku
4.5
Mariehamn
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.3
SJK
4.0
FF Jaro
4.0
Ilves
3.9
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AC Oulu
25.5
Ilves
25.0
Inter Turku
24.6
Mariehamn
24.5
SJK
23.8
KuPS
23.8
HJK Helsinki
22.9
Kooteepee
22.9
Haka
22.5
Gnistan
22.3
VPS
22.2
FF Jaro
12.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.1%
Under 9.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.25
0.58
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.80
0.11
0.56
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.47
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.17
0.33
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.35
1.22
0.56
0.50
0.12
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
0.83
0.83
1.39
0.89
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.83
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.90
0.89
0.78
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (HJK Helsinki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HJK Helsinki
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
0.87
0.80
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.91
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.59
1.00
0.89
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HJK Helsinki over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maissa Fall40%
Jesper Engström25%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Olli Jakonen14%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Antti-Ville Räisänen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu43%
Tyler Reid29%
Martti Haukioja25%
Rasmus Leislahti20%
William Wilson20%
Pedro Justiniano17%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Miika Niemi14%
Antti-Ville Räisänen12%
Yassine El Ouatki12%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Jesper Engström0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Antonio Almen0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yassine El Ouatki38%
Alfie Cicale25%
Olli Jakonen14%
Antti-Ville Räisänen12%
Tyler Reid0%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper Engström0%
Martti Haukioja0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maissa Fall40%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper Engström0%
Antti-Ville Räisänen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
HJK Helsinki
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kai Meriluoto67%
Alexander Ring38%
Michael Boamah33%
Santeri Hostikka31%
Lucas Lingman23%
Georgios Antzoulas22%
Teemu Pukki18%
Jere Kallinen17%
Michel Benjamin Stanley14%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Liam Möller14%
Vicente Besuijen12%
Georgios Kanellopoulos11%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster9%
Pyry Mentu8%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Ricardo Friedrich0%
Ville Tikkanen0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Ardit Tahiri0%
David Ezeh0%
Kaius Simojoki0%
Toivo Mero0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgios Kanellopoulos22%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster18%
Pyry Mentu17%
Ville Tikkanen14%
Liam Möller14%
Georgios Antzoulas11%
Teemu Pukki9%
Jere Kallinen8%
Alexander Ring8%
Lucas Lingman8%
Kaius Simojoki7%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Ricardo Friedrich0%
Santeri Hostikka0%
Michel Benjamin Stanley0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Vicente Besuijen0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Ardit Tahiri0%
Michael Boamah0%
David Ezeh0%
Toivo Mero0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Teemu Pukki45%
Santeri Hostikka31%
David Ezeh25%
Lucas Lingman23%
Georgios Kanellopoulos22%
Pyry Mentu17%
Liam Möller14%
Kaius Simojoki14%
Alexander Ring8%
Michel Benjamin Stanley7%
Georgios Antzoulas0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Ricardo Friedrich0%
Ville Tikkanen0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Vicente Besuijen0%
Jere Kallinen0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Ardit Tahiri0%
Michael Boamah0%
Toivo Mero0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Santeri Hostikka38%
Alexander Ring38%
Kai Meriluoto33%
Teemu Pukki27%
Lucas Lingman15%
Georgios Kanellopoulos11%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster9%
Michel Benjamin Stanley7%
Georgios Antzoulas0%
Thijmen Nijhuis0%
Ricardo Friedrich0%
Ville Tikkanen0%
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan0%
Vicente Besuijen0%
Jere Kallinen0%
Elmo Henriksson0%
Miska Ylitolva0%
Mihailo Bogićević0%
Ardit Tahiri0%
Michael Boamah0%
Liam Möller0%
David Ezeh0%
Kaius Simojoki0%
Pyry Mentu0%
Toivo Mero0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
VPS's squad is €4m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
VPS's attack is €1m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
VPS and HJK Helsinki have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
VPS's defence is €2m less valuable than HJK Helsinki's (€1m vs €3m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro
Gnistan
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS