Vushtrria’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding fewer than a goal per game against stronger opposition, while Ramiz Sadiku’s away form shows they rarely allow more than half a goal to weaker sides. The model favours a home win, with a 49 % chance, followed by a 30 % draw and a 21 % away victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Vushtrria, a 14 % chance. Suggested picks include the Under 3.5, with an 81.9 % probability. The home side’s average goals scored at home is 2.08 and conceded 0.92; the away side averages 1.75 scored and 0.5 conceded on the road. The recent form shows Vushtrria returning from two defeats, while Ramiz Sadiku comes off a draw. The match is expected to be tight and low-scoring, with Vushtrria the clear favourite.
Results analysis
After a brief dip, Vushtrria’s recent form has turned in their favour, extending a run of wins that had been interrupted by two defeats. The model had predicted a home win with a 49 % probability, and the result confirmed that call. The final score of 1-0 delivered the expected outcome, with the favoured side securing victory. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5, hit with an 81.9 % probability. All other suggested picks were settled, and the prediction model’s choices performed as projected, reinforcing confidence in its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vushtrria win✓ Hit
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku win✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Vushtrria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.80
2.20
0.80
1.40
0.80
vs Stronger (24)
1.75
0.88
2.08
0.92
1.42
0.83
vs Similar (6)
2.00
0.50
2.67
0.33
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.33
0.87
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.61
0.89
0.67
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.75
2.25
1.00
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.9%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
14.0%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.3%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.9%
Vushtrria goals ↓
Ramiz Sadiku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.8%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
8.7%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.9%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Vushtrria goals (down), columns = Ramiz Sadiku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Vushtrria is 0.74 points better than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of average points per game (2.21 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Vushtrria is 0.68 goals better than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Vushtrria is 0.09 goals better than Ramiz Sadiku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Vushtrria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
1.36
0.36
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (25)
0.88
0.40
1.25
0.42
0.54
0.38
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
2.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.28
0.50
0.25
0.23
0.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.25
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
72% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Vushtrria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.79
0.50
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (25)
0.84
0.48
0.83
0.50
0.85
0.46
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ramiz Sadiku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ramiz Sadiku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.72
0.56
0.83
0.75
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.38
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
48% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ramiz Sadiku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →