This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.40
1.27
0.93
1.33
1.87
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.62
1.00
1.17
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.53
1.24
1.44
0.78
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.65-5.0%
Under 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.26+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.1%
1-2 ✓
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Waalwijk goals ↓
Vitesse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.0%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waalwijk goals (down), columns = Vitesse goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.44
PSV Eindhoven
2.38
Feyenoord
2.09
Twente
2.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.79
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.38
Heerenveen
1.21
Cambuur
1.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
Waalwijk
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.06
Groningen
1.06
Sparta Rotterdam
1.03
Fortuna Sittard
1.03
Heracles
1.00
Willem II
0.97
PEC Zwolle
0.79
Waalwijk is 0.38 points worse than Vitesse in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.88
PSV Eindhoven
2.53
Feyenoord
2.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Twente
1.62
Cambuur
1.56
Utrecht
1.50
Vitesse
1.24
Groningen
1.21
Waalwijk
1.18
NEC Nijmegen
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.09
Heerenveen
1.09
Fortuna Sittard
1.06
Heracles
0.97
Willem II
0.94
Sparta Rotterdam
0.88
PEC Zwolle
0.76
Waalwijk is 0.06 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.56
Feyenoord
1.00
Twente
1.09
PSV Eindhoven
1.24
AZ Alkmaar
1.29
Utrecht
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.41
Heracles
1.44
Heerenveen
1.47
Vitesse
1.50
GO Ahead Eagles
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.53
NEC Nijmegen
1.53
Groningen
1.62
Willem II
1.68
Fortuna Sittard
1.97
Cambuur
2.06
Waalwijk and Vitesse are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waalwijk
For 4.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
For 6.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 15.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waalwijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.9
3.2
2.6
21.8
22.2
21.4
vs Stronger (27)
9.0
9.8
8.2
2.6
3.0
2.2
20.1
21.3
18.9
vs Similar (23)
9.2
8.3
10.1
3.3
3.5
3.1
23.8
23.5
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
44%
36%
28%
28%
28%
44%
44%
44%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
72%
72%
72%
56%
56%
56%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.0
8.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
25.3
25.3
25.3
vs Stronger (21)
9.1
9.6
8.6
3.7
3.4
4.1
26.5
26.9
26.1
vs Similar (29)
9.4
10.3
8.6
3.7
4.2
3.2
24.4
23.9
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
46%
42%
46%
50%
42%
70%
67%
73%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
54%
50%
58%
30%
33%
27%
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Heerenveen
10.9
GO Ahead Eagles
10.8
Cambuur
10.8
Ajax
10.5
Utrecht
10.3
PEC Zwolle
10.2
PSV Eindhoven
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Heracles
9.8
Sparta Rotterdam
9.8
AZ Alkmaar
9.7
Fortuna Sittard
9.6
Groningen
9.3
Vitesse
9.3
Twente
9.2
Waalwijk
9.1
Willem II
8.9
NEC Nijmegen
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
5.7
Vitesse
3.7
Utrecht
3.4
Heracles
3.2
Feyenoord
3.2
Fortuna Sittard
3.1
Twente
3.1
Sparta Rotterdam
3.1
AZ Alkmaar
3.0
Waalwijk
2.9
Groningen
2.9
PEC Zwolle
2.8
Willem II
2.8
PSV Eindhoven
2.8
GO Ahead Eagles
2.8
Cambuur
2.8
Heerenveen
2.6
Ajax
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Vitesse
25.3
NEC Nijmegen
23.3
Fortuna Sittard
22.8
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Groningen
22.5
Twente
22.4
Heracles
22.4
Feyenoord
22.2
Waalwijk
21.8
Cambuur
21.8
Utrecht
21.6
Willem II
21.2
AZ Alkmaar
21.2
Ajax
21.0
Sparta Rotterdam
20.7
PSV Eindhoven
20.5
GO Ahead Eagles
19.8
Heerenveen
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.8%
Under 9.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.1%
Under 21.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.88
0.44
0.78
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.77
0.83
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.59
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waalwijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.67
0.89
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.71
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.17
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.78
0.44
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Waalwijk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waalwijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waalwijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waalwijk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Keyan Varela67%
Finn Stokkers33%
Haye Van Gemert33%
Yorem van der Veen25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Jochem Nap0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordy de Wijs50%
Loek Postma33%
Azzedine Dkidak25%
Jochem Nap25%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Faissal Al Mazyani0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jesse van de Haar25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Finn Stokkers0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Juan Familia-Castillo0%
Thijs van Leeuwen0%
Ryan Fage0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Keyan Varela0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Finn Stokkers33%
Keyan Varela33%
Juan Familia-Castillo25%
Thijs van Leeuwen25%
Ryan Fage25%
Faissal Al Mazyani25%
Jochem Nap25%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Liam Van Gelderen0%
Azzedine Dkidak0%
Niek Schiks0%
Loek Postma0%
Rein van Hedel0%
Jesse van de Haar0%
Yorem van der Veen0%
Haye Van Gemert0%
Vitesse · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
Waalwijk and Vitesse have a similar squad value (both €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
Waalwijk and Vitesse have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
Waalwijk and Vitesse have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
Waalwijk's defence is €1m more valuable than Vitesse's (€3m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Twente
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Cambuur
NEC Nijmegen
Groningen
GO Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Heracles
Willem II
PEC Zwolle