Walsall’s defensive record at home is a key factor, conceding 1.33 goals per game against teams of similar strength while scoring only 0.6. Accrington, on the road, averages 1.36 conceded and 0.79 scored against comparable opposition. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair, with a 41 % chance of a home win, 31 % draw and 28 % away win, and picks a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely result at 14.5 %. The expected total goals is 2.2, with a 28 % chance of exactly two goals.
The match is expected to stay under 7.5 goals (99.8 %) and under 6.5 (99.2 %). The model also favours a low-scoring first half for both sides, with 97.0 % for home under 2.5 HT goals and 98.6 % for away under 2.5 HT goals. Edge selections include away under 3.5 goals (98.2 % +3 %), away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1 % +3 %), under 5.5 (97.4 % +4 %) and home under 3.5 goals (96.3 % +6 %). The game is set to be a defensive standoff, with Walsall the clear favourite.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate, as Walsall secured a 3-2 victory over Accrington, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 41% probability and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.8%) was a hit, Under 6.5 (99.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.4%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%) hit. The match confirmed the model’s strong predictive accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Walsall win✓ Hit
40.8%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.88
Edge
-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
SBO
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.43
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Accrington win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.99
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.23
BetVictor
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.14
Betano
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Walsall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.40
0.53
1.27
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
-
-
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.32
0.53
1.27
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
1.07
1.40
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
2.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.35
1.33
1.17
0.71
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.2%
@ 1.31-4.6%
Under 1.5
33.8%
@ 3.19+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.1%
@ 2.00-8.7%
Under 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.77+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.4%
@ 3.51-8.1%
Under 3.5
81.6%
@ 1.27+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
@ 1.84-4.6%
No
54.4%
@ 1.85+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.18+7.4%
0-0
12.2%@ 8.64+7.1%
1-0
12.2%@ 6.23+5.1%
0-1
9.3%@ 9.83+4.9%
2-0
8.4%@ 8.10+2.9%
2-1
8.2%@ 7.83+2.5%
1-2
6.5%@ 12.30+2.9%
0-2
5.2%@ 19.27+2.9%
Walsall goals ↓
Accrington goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.3%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.4%
8.2%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Walsall goals (down), columns = Accrington goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Walsall is 0.26 points better than Accrington in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Walsall is 0.20 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Walsall is 0.04 goals better than Accrington in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Walsall is 6.5 percentage points worse than Accrington in terms of average possession (41% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Walsall
For 5.4 · Against 6.5 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Accrington
For 3.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Walsall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.6
4.4
2.8
22.8
23.9
21.7
vs Stronger (2)
15.0
-
15.0
1.5
-
1.5
16.5
-
16.5
vs Similar (46)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.7
4.4
3.0
23.0
23.9
22.0
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
66%
71%
62%
46%
62%
31%
56%
67%
46%
% under line
34%
29%
38%
54%
38%
69%
44%
33%
54%
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.8
3.9
3.0
4.8
22.0
21.5
22.5
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
10.3
11.5
4.5
2.2
6.8
22.6
24.0
21.5
vs Similar (42)
9.5
9.5
9.5
3.7
3.1
4.4
21.9
21.1
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
46%
56%
52%
32%
72%
49%
46%
52%
% under line
49%
54%
44%
48%
68%
28%
51%
54%
48%
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.4%
@ 1.62-3.8%
Under 9.5
46.6%
@ 2.16+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Under
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.5%
Under 3.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Walsall or Draw✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 76.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-4.6%
41%
31%
28%
covers Walsall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Walsall or Accrington✓ Hit
68.7%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.7%
41%
31%
28%
covers Walsall + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Accrington✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.86
Edge
+9.3%
41%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Accrington
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Walsall over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
@ 1.19-6.8%
Under
29.0%
@ 4.18+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.19
Walsall over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
@ 1.99-11.6%
Under
64.9%
@ 1.75+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Walsall over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.9%
@ 4.20-9.3%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.19+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.29
Superbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Walsall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 9.47-6.3%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.05+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Accrington over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.4%
@ 1.50+0.6%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.43-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Accrington over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.6%
@ 3.51-0.9%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.27+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.64
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.54
Under
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Accrington over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 9.45-2.2%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.90
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Accrington over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 22.83-2.5%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Walsall, so a minus line means Walsall give that many goals of a start and Accrington receive them. At -1, Walsall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Walsall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Walsall)Actual: Accrington
Walsall -2
6.4%
@ 7.28-5.9%
Draw -2
12.3%
@ 5.33-4.5%
Accrington +2
81.3%
@ 1.26+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Walsall)Actual: Draw
Walsall -1
18.7%
@ 3.38-7.8%
Draw -1
22.2%
@ 3.53-3.1%
Accrington +1
59.2%
@ 1.85+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Walsall)Actual: Walsall
Walsall +1
72.2%
@ 1.22-0.5%
Draw +1
17.2%
@ 5.17+0.2%
Accrington -1
10.6%
@ 8.57+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Unibet
8.00
Handicap +2 (Walsall)Actual: Walsall
Walsall +2
89.4%
@ 1.05+0.9%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 12.00-0.1%
Accrington -2
2.9%
@ 24.33-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Walsall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.20
0.40
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.39
0.20
0.40
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.65
0.75
0.42
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.40+0.2%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.76-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
29.0%
@ 2.89-3.2%
Under 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.37+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Betano
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 7.46-2.9%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Walsall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.9%
@ 1.83-2.7%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.87+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Walsall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
14.1%
@ 5.22-3.7%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.13+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.20
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Walsall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 14.33-3.9%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Accrington over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.9%
@ 2.59+0.1%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.45-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.58
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Accrington over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 9.55-2.2%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Accrington over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 40.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Walsall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
0.33
0.87
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.93
0.33
0.87
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Accrington) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Accrington
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.69
0.58
0.75
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.26+4.2%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 3.56-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Superbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.21-1.2%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.61+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.1%
@ 4.86-3.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
@ 1.15+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Walsall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.9%
@ 1.61+0.1%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.19-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Walsall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 3.88-3.4%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.21+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Walsall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 10.17-3.1%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Accrington over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 2.15+1.0%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.63-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Accrington over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 7.06-1.4%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Accrington over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.83-2.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+5.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.13
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.6%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
81.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.4%
1.27
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.2%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.2%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.37
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Betano
1.37
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.53
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+8.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Walsall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Pressley50%
Harrison Burke33%
Reece Smith25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Moore75%
Sven Sprangler67%
Tai Sodje33%
James Connolly33%
Elicha Ahui33%
Rico Browne25%
Declan Skura25%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Reece Smith0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reece Smith50%
Mason Hancock25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aaron Pressley50%
Andy Dallas25%
Reece Smith25%
Courtney Clarke25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Isaac Moore0%
Accrington
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Woods50%
Stefan Mols33%
F. Rawson25%
D. Tutonda0%
Donald Love0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joseph Anderson50%
J. Woods50%
Seamus Conneely33%
S. Whalley33%
Liam Coyle33%
Tom Moore33%
F. Rawson25%
Donald Love25%
D. Tutonda0%
C. Stockton0%
Louie Moulden0%
Charlie Caton0%
Stefan Mols0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Mols33%
Donald Love25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Charlie Caton0%
Tom Moore0%
J. Woods0%
Devon Matthews0%
Alex Henderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Woods50%
Donald Love25%
Charlie Caton25%
Alex Henderson25%
F. Rawson0%
D. Tutonda0%
Seamus Conneely0%
S. Whalley0%
C. Stockton0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Louie Moulden0%
Liam Coyle0%
Stefan Mols0%
Tom Moore0%
Devon Matthews0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Walsall and Accrington have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Walsall and Accrington have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Walsall and Accrington have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Walsall and Accrington have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Port Vale