Grimsby is the favourite to win, following their recent strong form and a win over Exeter. They have a 45% chance of taking the three points, while Walsall and a draw have 27% and 28% respectively. The model predicts an away win, and the expected total number of goals is 2.6. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Grimsby have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded when playing away against similar opponents, while Walsall have averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded at home against similar opponents. The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.9% chance of occurring and Under 3.5 with a 73.1% chance. Walsall have a 27% chance of winning, a draw is 28% likely, and Grimsby have a 45% chance of winning. The model also suggests Over 1.5 (74.9%), Under 3.5 (73.1%), and Grimsby to win (45%), Walsall to win (27%), and a draw (28%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for Grimsby, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The game saw both sides keep their recent form notes, each coming off a stalemate. The model’s selection of an away victory had a 45 % probability, yet the result was a dead-heat. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5 %) and Under 5.5 (94.9 %). The match stayed low-scoring, matching the most likely total of two goals, though neither side reached that mark.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Walsall win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.84
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Dafabet
2.95
Betfair
2.90
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.19
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.31
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Grimsby win✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.42
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.60
Dafabet
2.46
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Walsall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
0.64
1.43
1.44
1.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
-
-
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.36
0.64
1.43
1.50
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.97
1.82
1.12
1.38
0.77
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.64
0.93
1.87
1.07
1.38
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.9%
@ 1.34+5.4%
Under 1.5
25.1%
@ 3.05-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 2.07+3.6%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 1.71-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
@ 3.68+1.7%
Under 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.24-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.81
10Bet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.81+2.3%
No
46.5%
@ 1.90-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Betano
1.82
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.79+5.7%
0-1
9.7%@ 7.02+3.4%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.88+4.2%
0-0 ✓
8.5%@ 8.20+3.0%
0-2
8.3%@ 10.93+4.2%
1-0
6.8%@ 7.77+1.1%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.79+2.2%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.46+1.8%
Walsall goals ↓
Grimsby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
9.7%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
1
6.8%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.5%
6.8%
5.1%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Walsall goals (down), columns = Grimsby goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Walsall is 0.27 points worse than Grimsby in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Walsall is 0.39 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Walsall is 0.11 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Walsall is 13.8 percentage points worse than Grimsby in terms of average possession (41% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Walsall
For 5.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
For 5.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Walsall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.0
10.7
3.6
4.6
2.9
22.4
23.4
21.7
vs Stronger (3)
13.3
-
13.3
2.0
-
2.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (45)
10.3
10.0
10.5
3.8
4.6
3.0
22.7
23.4
22.0
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
64%
68%
61%
46%
68%
29%
54%
64%
46%
% under line
36%
32%
39%
54%
32%
71%
46%
36%
54%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.6
10.0
3.6
3.5
3.8
23.8
22.9
24.8
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
9.3
7.0
2.2
2.0
3.0
21.8
20.0
27.0
vs Similar (44)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.8
3.9
3.8
23.9
23.3
24.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
45%
54%
54%
55%
67%
58%
77%
% under line
48%
42%
55%
46%
46%
45%
33%
42%
23%
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.5%
@ 1.66-1.1%
Under 9.5
45.5%
@ 2.08+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.8%
Under 3.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.4%
Under 21.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Walsall or Draw✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.50
Edge
-7.0%
27%
28%
45%
covers Walsall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Walsall or Grimsby✗ Miss
71.9%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.30
Edge
+0.6%
27%
28%
45%
covers Walsall + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Draw or Grimsby✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.39
Edge
+6.4%
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Walsall over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.1%
@ 1.35-1.5%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.95+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Walsall over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.5%
@ 2.74-3.4%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.41+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
10Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Walsall over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 6.83-3.4%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.08+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Under
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Walsall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.81-2.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.0%
@ 1.30+6.4%
Under
22.0%
@ 3.27-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Grimsby over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.6%
@ 2.47+7.0%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.49-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Grimsby over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 5.88+3.6%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.10-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
888Sport
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Grimsby over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 15.75+0.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.02-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Walsall, so a minus line means Walsall give that many goals of a start and Grimsby receive them. At -1, Walsall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Walsall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Walsall)Actual: Grimsby
Walsall -2
3.3%
@ 14.38-3.0%
Draw -2
7.6%
@ 8.30-3.3%
Grimsby +2
89.1%
@ 1.09+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Unibet
11.50
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Away
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Handicap -1 (Walsall)Actual: Grimsby
Walsall -1
10.9%
@ 5.99-4.1%
Draw -1
15.8%
@ 4.30-5.1%
Grimsby +1
73.3%
@ 1.40+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Handicap +1 (Walsall)Actual: Walsall
Walsall +1
54.7%
@ 1.51-4.5%
Draw +1
21.9%
@ 3.95-0.7%
Grimsby -1
23.3%
@ 4.93+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Draw
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Superbet
3.90
Away
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Walsall)Actual: Walsall
Walsall +2
76.7%
@ 1.14-1.2%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 6.53+0.4%
Grimsby -2
9.3%
@ 10.47+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Walsall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.39
0.29
0.43
0.57
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.82
0.53
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.69
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.42+7.4%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 2.70-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.67
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.96+2.3%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.35-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.12
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 7.80+0.3%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.06-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Walsall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.22+1.7%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.59-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Walsall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 7.50-1.3%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
7.50
Betano
7.10
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Walsall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 22.17-2.6%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.1%
@ 2.09+0.7%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.67-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 6.68-2.2%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 19.17-2.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Walsall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.96
0.36
1.00
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
1.00
0.59
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.47
0.69
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Walsall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.0%
Under 2.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Walsall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Walsall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Walsall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
1.09
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.0%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
76.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.34
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
73.3%
1.39
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.3%
1.40
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+0.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Walsall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Pressley50%
Harrison Burke33%
Reece Smith25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Moore75%
Sven Sprangler67%
Tai Sodje33%
James Connolly33%
Elicha Ahui33%
Rico Browne25%
Declan Skura25%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Reece Smith0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reece Smith50%
Mason Hancock25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Andy Dallas0%
Aaron Pressley0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Courtney Clarke0%
Isaac Moore0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aaron Pressley50%
Andy Dallas25%
Reece Smith25%
Courtney Clarke25%
Sven Sprangler0%
Albert Adomah0%
Lewis Simper0%
Tai Sodje0%
James Connolly0%
Harrison Burke0%
Jed Ward0%
Rico Browne0%
Mason Hancock0%
Charlie Crew0%
Declan Skura0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Isaac Moore0%
Grimsby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Walsall and Grimsby have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Walsall and Grimsby have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Walsall and Grimsby have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Walsall and Grimsby have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale