This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.60
0.93
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.16
1.67
0.67
1.30
1.60
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.89
1.60
1.20
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
0-2 â
8.2%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Waterford goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
10.0%
8.2%
4.0%
1.5%
1
7.3%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
4.7%
6.9%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.86 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.96).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.30 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.64).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Waterford is 0.69 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 0.96).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Waterford is 23.5 percentage points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average possession (39% vs 62%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.0 · Total 23.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shamrock Rovers
For 4.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 9.6 · Total 20.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.9
10.4
4.7
5.5
3.9
22.7
23.0
22.5
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
8.0
6.5
3.3
4.3
2.3
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (43)
11.6
12.4
10.7
5.0
5.7
4.3
23.1
23.5
22.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
66%
75%
58%
69%
71%
67%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
34%
25%
42%
31%
29%
33%
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.3
8.5
4.3
3.5
5.1
22.6
21.7
23.5
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
12.0
9.5
4.7
1.0
6.5
18.0
14.0
20.0
vs Similar (31)
8.5
8.5
8.5
4.0
3.6
4.4
24.4
24.2
24.7
vs Weaker (16)
7.9
7.6
8.2
4.9
3.8
6.1
20.7
19.0
22.4
% over line
30%
29%
30%
66%
50%
81%
61%
48%
74%
% under line
70%
71%
70%
34%
50%
19%
39%
52%
26%
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Waterford
11.0
Sligo Rovers
11.0
Galway United
10.5
Dundalk
10.3
Bohemians
10.3
Drogheda United
10.3
St Patrick's Athl.
10.0
Shelbourne
9.4
Derry City
9.2
Shamrock Rovers
8.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.5
Dundalk
5.2
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shelbourne
4.9
Waterford
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Bohemians
4.8
Galway United
4.7
Sligo Rovers
4.6
Drogheda United
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Derry City
23.3
Dundalk
23.3
Bohemians
23.1
Galway United
23.0
Waterford
22.9
St Patrick's Athl.
22.4
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Drogheda United
21.6
Shelbourne
21.3
Sligo Rovers
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.1%
Under 9.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.7%
Under 3.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.4%
Under 21.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.40
0.80
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.96
0.46
0.85
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.68
0.89
0.44
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.11
1.00
0.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.93
0.47
0.27
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.96
0.92
0.38
0.23
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.47
0.78
0.22
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.78
0.60
1.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Lonergan42%
John Mahon19%
PÃĄdraig Amond19%
J. VoilÃĨs13%
K. Long11%
D. McMenamy4%
Benny Couto4%
Conan Noonan4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
H. Cann0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Johnson45%
Ronan Mansfield43%
S. Glenfield29%
Luke Heeney27%
John Mahon27%
Evan McLaughlin25%
Noah Mawene25%
Tom Lonergan19%
Jordan Houston18%
K. Long17%
Benny Couto16%
H. Cann14%
D. McMenamy13%
Conan Noonan12%
Cian Barrett9%
J. VoilÃĨs9%
Conor Carty7%
PÃĄdraig Amond4%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benny Couto16%
J. VoilÃĨs13%
Evan McLaughlin12%
Conan Noonan12%
Tom Lonergan12%
D. McMenamy9%
Jordan Houston6%
K. Long6%
John Mahon4%
PÃĄdraig Amond4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Lonergan42%
PÃĄdraig Amond15%
Benny Couto8%
Conor Carty7%
K. Long6%
J. VoilÃĨs4%
John Mahon4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
Conan Noonan0%
D. McMenamy0%
Arlo Doherty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Graham Burke27%
M. Noonan24%
Dylan Watts22%
Roberto Lopes21%
John McGovern18%
A. Greene16%
Daniel Grant15%
Adam Brennan15%
M. Asamoah10%
M. Healy8%
Enda Stevens8%
J. Byrne7%
Tunmise Sobowale4%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
J. Mulraney0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
E. McGinty0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
N. Razi0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Victor Ozhianvuna0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Asamoah40%
Enda Stevens38%
M. Healy28%
Max Kovaleskis25%
Adam Brennan25%
Roberto Lopes21%
A. Matthews20%
John O'Sullivan20%
Cory O'Sullivan18%
Tunmise Sobowale16%
Daniel Grant15%
J. Byrne15%
E. McGinty15%
Dan Cleary12%
N. Razi12%
A. Greene12%
Victor Ozhianvuna11%
Graham Burke9%
John McGovern9%
M. Noonan8%
L. Grace5%
J. Mulraney5%
Connor Malley0%
Dylan Watts0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
John McGovern23%
Dylan Watts17%
Tunmise Sobowale12%
Cory O'Sullivan12%
J. Byrne11%
Victor Ozhianvuna11%
M. Asamoah10%
Adam Brennan10%
Enda Stevens8%
Daniel Grant8%
John O'Sullivan7%
Graham Burke5%
J. Mulraney5%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
Roberto Lopes0%
A. Greene0%
E. McGinty0%
M. Healy0%
N. Razi0%
M. Noonan0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Asamoah20%
Graham Burke18%
Daniel Grant15%
John McGovern9%
M. Noonan8%
Roberto Lopes7%
John O'Sullivan7%
Victor Ozhianvuna6%
Adam Brennan5%
A. Greene4%
M. Healy4%
J. Byrne4%
Enda Stevens0%
Connor Malley0%
A. Matthews0%
J. Mulraney0%
Dan Cleary0%
L. Grace0%
Dylan Watts0%
E. McGinty0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Cory O'Sullivan0%
N. Razi0%
Max Kovaleskis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Waterford's squad is €5m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€2m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Waterford's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Waterford's midfield is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Waterford's defence is €1m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Galway United
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers