West Brom are the clear favourites to win this Championship encounter, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Watford victory. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. West Brom’s home form shows they average 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Watford’s away record is 0.93 scored and 1.87 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1% with a 5% edge) and Under 5.5 (95.1% with a 2% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Brom win
52.5%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.86
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Dafabet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.87
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.52
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.64
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Watford win
20.3%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.05
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
Dafabet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.13
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Brom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.23
1.23
1.12
1.41
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.87
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.70
1.00
1.47
0.80
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.65
1.09
1.27
0.80
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.4%
@ 1.28+0.2%
Under 1.5
26.6%
@ 3.49-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.66
Betano
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.89-3.1%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.89+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Under
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 3.20-4.0%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.32+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
49.7%
@ 1.76-3.1%
No
50.3%
@ 1.97+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Betano
1.75
No
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.42+5.9%
1-0
11.5%@ 6.83+4.9%
2-0
10.3%@ 8.49+5.0%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.79+3.8%
0-0
9.0%@ 10.14+4.6%
0-1
6.1%@ 10.81+1.9%
3-0
5.6%@ 14.51+2.5%
1-2
5.4%@ 12.25+1.8%
West Brom goals ↓
Watford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.1%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.2%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Brom goals (down), columns = Watford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Brom is 0.09 points worse than Watford in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Brom is 0.11 goals worse than Watford in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Brom is 0.15 goals better than Watford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
West Brom is 0.4 percentage points better than Watford in terms of average possession (52% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Brom
For 3.7 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 12.4 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Watford
For 4.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Brom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
20.9
21.0
20.7
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.0
8.5
4.3
5.0
4.0
21.0
18.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.6
9.5
9.8
3.3
3.3
3.3
21.0
21.1
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
3.0
-
3.0
2.0
-
2.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
44%
52%
37%
40%
35%
44%
40%
39%
41%
% under line
56%
48%
63%
60%
65%
56%
60%
61%
59%
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.4
4.4
4.3
20.9
21.7
20.1
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
10.5
7.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
20.7
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (45)
10.5
10.6
10.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
21.0
21.8
20.3
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.5
-
3.0
3.0
-
20.0
20.0
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
56%
58%
54%
38%
42%
33%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
44%
42%
46%
62%
58%
67%
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.78+2.1%
Under 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.94-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.0%
@ 1.92+8.4%
Under 3.5
43.0%
@ 1.81-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.7%
Under 21.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Brom or Draw
79.7%
Avg Implied 76.9% · @ 1.22
Edge
+2.8%
53%
27%
20%
covers West Brom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
West Brom or Watford
72.9%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.1%
53%
27%
20%
covers West Brom + Watford
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Watford
47.5%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.90
Edge
-1.7%
53%
27%
20%
covers Draw + Watford
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Brom over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
@ 1.17+1.3%
Under
19.7%
@ 4.40-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
West Brom over/under 1.5
Over
48.2%
@ 1.89-1.0%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.84+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Under
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.83
West Brom over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
@ 3.87-1.8%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.22+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
West Brom over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
@ 8.52-2.7%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Watford over/under 0.5
Over
60.4%
@ 1.45-3.6%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.58+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.55
Watford over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
@ 3.27-4.7%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.30+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Watford over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
@ 8.65-4.0%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.80
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Watford over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
@ 19.00-3.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Brom, so a minus line means West Brom give that many goals of a start and Watford receive them. At -1, West Brom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Brom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Brom)
West Brom -2
12.3%
@ 6.91-0.7%
Draw -2
16.5%
@ 5.22-0.6%
Watford +2
71.2%
@ 1.28+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Unibet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Handicap -1 (West Brom)
West Brom -1
28.8%
@ 3.28+1.5%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.55-1.4%
Watford +1
47.5%
@ 1.88-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.14
Betfair
3.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (West Brom)
West Brom +1
79.7%
@ 1.22+5.3%
Draw +1
13.1%
@ 5.67-2.9%
Watford -1
7.3%
@ 9.34-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (West Brom)
West Brom +2
92.7%
@ 1.05+4.8%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 11.12-2.9%
Watford -2
1.9%
@ 24.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
26.00
Unibet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Brom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.38
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.52
0.67
0.42
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.53
0.40
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.65
0.64
0.18
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.1%
@ 1.37-1.0%
Under 0.5
32.9%
@ 2.92+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Unibet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.07
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.0%
@ 2.71-3.3%
Under 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.41+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 6.77-2.9%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Under
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.2%
@ 1.78-4.0%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.95+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
West Brom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.2%
@ 4.94-3.5%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.14+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
4.90
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
West Brom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
@ 10.75-5.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Watford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.9%
@ 2.53-0.8%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.47+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Unibet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Watford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 9.03-2.4%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.40
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Watford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Brom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.62
0.85
0.71
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.67
0.92
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.47
1.07
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
1.00
0.45
1.09
0.60
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.22+0.4%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.85-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.4%
@ 2.09-1.3%
Under 1.5
56.6%
@ 1.69+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.3%
@ 4.43-2.7%
Under 2.5
81.7%
@ 1.18+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Brom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.3%
@ 1.57-2.1%
Under
42.7%
@ 2.28+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Under
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.10
West Brom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.4%
@ 3.58-3.4%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.25+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
West Brom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 8.65-6.0%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Watford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.0%
@ 2.07-1.8%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.68+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Watford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.2%
@ 6.47-3.0%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Watford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 11.75-6.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.0%
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
+4.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+3.0%
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+3.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.14
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
80.3%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+1.3%
Home or Draw
79.7%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+2.8%
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.17
+5.3%
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+1.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.25
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
-
+3.4%
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
-
-
-
-
+11.2%
Away under 1.5 goals
76.3%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
+4.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+0.4%
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.32
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+4.0%
Over 1.5
73.4%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
+0.2%
Home or Away
72.9%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.1%
Away +2 handicap
71.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+1.3%
Under 23.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Brom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jimmy Morgan50%
Harry Whitwell40%
Isaac Price33%
Aune Selland Heggebø25%
Callum Styles17%
Felix Horn Myhre17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ousmane Diakité50%
Nathaniel Phillips20%
Rabby Nzingoula20%
George Campbell17%
Barney Stewart17%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Isaac Price0%
Jimmy Morgan0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jimmy Morgan33%
Max O'Leary20%
Harry Whitwell20%
Callum Styles17%
Isaac Price17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Price33%
Jimmy Morgan17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Watford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Amin Nabizada33%
Luca Kjerrumgaard25%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Kyprianou33%
Edoardo Bove33%
K. Keben33%
Othmane Maamma33%
J. Zemura25%
M. Payero20%
M. Pollock20%
O. Traoré20%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
F. Ravaglia0%
R. Vata0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Traoré20%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Iker Bravo0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Othmane Maamma0%
M. Doumbia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Kjerrumgaard50%
Iker Bravo40%
M. Payero20%
H. Kyprianou17%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
Amin Nabizada0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Brom's squad is €36m less valuable than Watford's (€52m vs €88m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Brom's attack is €13m less valuable than Watford's (€15m vs €28m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Brom's midfield is €16m less valuable than Watford's (€22m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Brom's defence is €7m less valuable than Watford's (€15m vs €22m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
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