West Ham’s recent win over Wolves fuels the model’s confidence that they will prevail, reflected in a 53% home win probability, 22% draw and 25% away win. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 9% chance, and the model expects 3.7 goals on average, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. West Ham’s home form against weaker opponents shows 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Derby, playing away against stronger opposition, averages 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The most striking edge lies in the model’s selection of “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 97.9%, a clear divergence from market sentiment that Derby will score early. Other picks include “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 96.6%, “Under 7.5” 96.5%, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” 96.3% with a 7% edge, “Away under 3.5 goals” 93.6%, “Under 6.5” 91.9%, “Home under 2.5 2H goals” 90.5% with a 6% edge, and “Over 1.5” 89.1% with a 12% edge. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Ham win
53.1%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.35
Edge
-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Dafabet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.85
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.20
Pinnacle
5.11
Unibet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Derby win
24.9%
Avg Implied 11.6% · @ 8.04
Edge
+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.90
BetVictor
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
Dafabet
8.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
West Ham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.88
1.19
1.21
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.33
2.18
1.18
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
1.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.37
1.33
1.27
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.19
1.42
1.00
1.50
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.1%
@ 1.21+11.9%
Under 1.5
10.9%
@ 4.10-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.22
Unibet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.3%
@ 1.69+15.6%
Under 2.5
28.7%
@ 2.13-15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.15
SBO
2.14
Marathonbet
2.13
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
@ 2.72+16.0%
Under 3.5
49.6%
@ 1.42-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
69.7%
@ 1.98+22.6%
No
30.3%
@ 1.76-22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
No
Betfair
1.87
BetVictor
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%@ 7.75+3.2%
1-1
9.0%@ 8.61+3.8%
2-2
6.7%@ 19.06+4.3%
3-1
6.6%@ 10.79+2.5%
1-2
6.1%@ 21.50+4.0%
2-0
6.1%@ 6.13-1.3%
3-2
4.9%@ 24.68+3.1%
1-0
4.7%@ 6.45-2.3%
West Ham goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.9%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
1
4.7%
9.0%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.1%
9.0%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
3
4.5%
6.6%
4.9%
2.4%
0.9%
4
2.5%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = West Ham goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
West Ham is 0.42 points better than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
West Ham is 0.36 goals better than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
West Ham is 0.36 goals better than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
West Ham
For 5.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Ham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.1
11.1
3.8
3.9
3.6
22.1
22.8
21.4
vs Stronger (8)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
23.6
22.0
25.2
vs Similar (37)
10.8
11.1
10.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
21.4
22.0
20.8
vs Weaker (5)
13.6
11.7
16.5
4.6
5.0
4.0
25.0
29.0
19.0
% over line
66%
64%
68%
54%
48%
60%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
34%
36%
32%
46%
52%
40%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Derby) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.1
10.0
4.1
4.1
4.0
22.9
22.5
23.2
vs Stronger (6)
9.7
11.3
8.0
4.7
3.7
5.7
24.0
21.3
26.7
vs Similar (44)
10.1
9.9
10.3
4.0
4.1
3.8
22.7
22.6
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
54%
60%
48%
64%
64%
64%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
46%
40%
52%
36%
36%
36%
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.0%
@ 1.56-0.5%
Under 9.5
41.0%
@ 2.29+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.8%
@ 1.92+5.3%
Under 3.5
46.2%
@ 1.81-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.1%
Under 21.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
West Ham or Draw
75.1%
Avg Implied 87.7% · @ 1.07
Edge
-12.6%
53%
22%
25%
covers West Ham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
West Ham or Derby
78.0%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.15
Edge
-3.6%
53%
22%
25%
covers West Ham + Derby
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Draw or Derby
46.9%
Avg Implied 30.7% · @ 3.05
Edge
+16.2%
53%
22%
25%
covers Draw + Derby
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
West Ham over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Under
11.0%
@ 6.89-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Under
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
West Ham over/under 1.5
Over
64.6%
@ 1.46+1.0%
Under
35.4%
@ 2.56-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.58
BetVictor
2.55
West Ham over/under 2.5
Over
37.8%
@ 2.47-0.0%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.50+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Unibet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
West Ham over/under 3.5
Over
18.1%
@ 4.81-1.1%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Derby over/under 0.5
Over
77.4%
@ 1.78+25.4%
Under
22.6%
@ 1.93-25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Derby over/under 1.5
Over
43.8%
@ 5.03+25.3%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.14-25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Derby over/under 2.5
Over
18.8%
@ 13.75+11.8%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.02-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Derby over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
@ 51.00-93.6%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to West Ham, so a minus line means West Ham give that many goals of a start and Derby receive them. At -1, West Ham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal West Ham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (West Ham)
West Ham -2
16.8%
@ 3.53-8.7%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 4.02-6.4%
Derby +2
67.1%
@ 1.73+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.25
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.67
Handicap -1 (West Ham)
West Ham -1
32.9%
@ 1.98-12.4%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 3.52-5.3%
Derby +1
46.9%
@ 3.08+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.89
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Away
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Handicap +1 (West Ham)
West Ham +1
75.1%
@ 1.08-9.9%
Draw +1
13.4%
@ 8.83+3.0%
Derby -1
11.5%
@ 19.67+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Handicap +2 (West Ham)
West Ham +2
88.5%
@ 1.01-6.1%
Draw +2
7.3%
@ 23.50+3.2%
Derby -2
4.2%
@ 71.00+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
91.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
West Ham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.94
0.44
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.57
1.00
0.36
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.62
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.30+1.7%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.26-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 2.46+3.2%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.50-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Under
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 5.94+1.7%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.10-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Unibet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.6%
@ 1.51-8.0%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.43+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
10Bet
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
West Ham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.7%
@ 3.46-8.1%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.26+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Under
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
West Ham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.8%
@ 8.83-5.7%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Derby over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.2%
@ 3.25+13.6%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.30-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.53
Unibet
3.35
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Under
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Derby over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.1%
@ 10.25+4.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.03-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Derby over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
West Ham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.94
0.75
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.76
1.18
0.82
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.5%
@ 1.18+6.1%
Under 0.5
15.5%
@ 4.30-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.40
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.8%
@ 1.90+3.7%
Under 1.5
47.2%
@ 1.83-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.9%
@ 3.85-0.2%
Under 2.5
76.1%
@ 1.22+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
West Ham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.1%
@ 1.35-7.5%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.95+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.05
1xBet
2.85
West Ham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.2%
@ 2.60-8.3%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.43+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
West Ham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.8%
@ 5.98-4.6%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.09+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Derby over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
@ 2.59+14.9%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.44-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Derby over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.2%
@ 9.63+5.6%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.02-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
9.90
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Derby over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-2.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+4.6%
Over 1.5
89.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+11.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+2.4%
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-6.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.02
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-5.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+6.1%
Under 5.5
83.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
-6.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Unibet
1.09
-1.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
81.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+1.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.3%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+8.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-11.8%
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
-3.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+0.2%
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-12.6%
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-9.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+1.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.8%
1.43
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
-
+8.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.3%
1.69
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
+15.6%
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
1.31
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
-
+0.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
West Ham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Solomon20%
M. Kilman17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Hermansen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Castellanos50%
D. Mukasa25%
M. Hermansen20%
J. Veltman17%
M. Kilman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
J. Bowen0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
Pablo Felipe0%
O. Scarles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Bowen50%
Pablo Felipe33%
Arne Engels25%
L. Orford20%
J. Veltman17%
Mohamadou Kanté17%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Piroe0%
M. Solomon0%
Konstantinos Mavropanos0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
V. Castellanos0%
O. Scarles0%
D. Mukasa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Bowen50%
V. Castellanos33%
Pablo Felipe33%
J. Piroe25%
Konstantinos Mavropanos25%
D. Mukasa25%
Kyle Walker-Peters0%
J. Veltman0%
M. Solomon0%
M. Hermansen0%
M. Kilman0%
Arne Engels0%
L. Orford0%
O. Scarles0%
Mohamadou Kanté0%
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
West Ham's squad is €217m more valuable than Derby's (€274m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
West Ham's attack is €60m more valuable than Derby's (€84m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
West Ham's midfield is €34m more valuable than Derby's (€48m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
West Ham's defence is €123m more valuable than Derby's (€141m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston